Rottweiler
Forumer storico
Il commento di una banca d'affari a proposito delle "sanzioni russe":
• In a response to the recent sanctions against Russia, President Putin announced a ban on imports of food and agricultural products from the EU, US, Australia, Canada, and Norway.
• The EU is most exposed to the import ban, but it affects only a small part of the economy. Nevertheless, given the subdued pace of growth in Europe, these sanctions constitute additional downside risks to current forecasts, if sustained. The impact on the US economy is negligible as food imports from the US are estimate at less than $1.5 billion.
• We expect a negative impact on Russian inflation as it will be difficult to substitute specific products in the near term. This additional inflation pressure comes at a time when inflation is running above the Central Bank target; therefore we continue to expect tight monetary policy in coming months.
• We reiterate our neutral views on Russian assets, including bonds, equities, and the currency. We expect all Russian assets to exhibit heightened volatility in the weeks ahead, as outlined in our 5 August 2014 report "Russia and Ukraine: What next?". For bond specific guidance, please refer to our weekly updated Emerging Markets Bond List.
• We expect limited impact on global financial markets from the Russian import bans. Exports of oil and gas from Russia to the EU were not part of any of the measures announced by Russia. However, the rising escalation of economic sanctions suggests financial markets will remain attentive to the Russia/Ukraine crisis.
• In a response to the recent sanctions against Russia, President Putin announced a ban on imports of food and agricultural products from the EU, US, Australia, Canada, and Norway.
• The EU is most exposed to the import ban, but it affects only a small part of the economy. Nevertheless, given the subdued pace of growth in Europe, these sanctions constitute additional downside risks to current forecasts, if sustained. The impact on the US economy is negligible as food imports from the US are estimate at less than $1.5 billion.
• We expect a negative impact on Russian inflation as it will be difficult to substitute specific products in the near term. This additional inflation pressure comes at a time when inflation is running above the Central Bank target; therefore we continue to expect tight monetary policy in coming months.
• We reiterate our neutral views on Russian assets, including bonds, equities, and the currency. We expect all Russian assets to exhibit heightened volatility in the weeks ahead, as outlined in our 5 August 2014 report "Russia and Ukraine: What next?". For bond specific guidance, please refer to our weekly updated Emerging Markets Bond List.
• We expect limited impact on global financial markets from the Russian import bans. Exports of oil and gas from Russia to the EU were not part of any of the measures announced by Russia. However, the rising escalation of economic sanctions suggests financial markets will remain attentive to the Russia/Ukraine crisis.
