Interessante post di Rosemberg sulle crisi del credito passate e sui bottom del mercato.
The elusive bottom
Keep in mind, for all the bottom pickers out there, that after the RTC was
established in 1989 it took a year for the stock market to bottom, two years for the
economy to bottom, and three years for the housing market to bottom. And recall
that after the FSA in Japan was unveiled in 1997 the stock market didn’t bottom
for another five years and it’s an open question as whether the economy ever did
manage to stage a sustainable recovery. In the Swedish case of the early 1990s,
even with an effective government solution, the process of extinguishing the bad
debts via government intervention was painful – the equity market incurred a
28-month long bear market that saw Sweden’s major index decline 45% from
peak to trough and the economy undergo a 20-month recession that saw
domestic demand contract by 2-1/2%.