Weekly Technical Commentary
by Art Huprich
Thursday Morning 9/21
“O and O” was the focus yesterday. ORCL (good earnings) and Oil (lower prices) that is, both of which helped the DJIA (11613.19) open sharply higher. By 2:05 p.m. the DJIA was up 88 points. Then Wall Street had to contend with another “OH” as the Fed news came out. Per Senior Economist Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., “… the tightening bias remains.” UH OH. Thus, the DJIA quickly shed 47 points and was up only 41 points before regrouping going into the close, ending with a gain of 77 points. NASDAQ (2252.89), up 30.5 points, outperformed as it was helped by ORCL, which accounts for a 2.2% weighting in the NASDAQ. Commodity stocks (energy specifically) underperformed. I also want to put on the table, and if necessary will come back to over the next few days, is that the REIT Index (RMZ2/1016.40) went to new high territory and closed down for a potential “reversal day.” Technology stocks (software and manufacturers specifically) rallied nicely.
On the NYSE volume expanded to 1.60 billion shares. Let me address the many questions I have been getting about volume. Yes, volume has been light. However, the volume we have seen has expanded on “up-days” and contracted on “down-days,” both of which are positive sequences. There were 1019 net advancing issues. The traditional advance-decline line continues to set new highs, the operating companies-only advance-decline line continues to lag, and the S&P 500 advance-decline line, which broke out yesterday but isn’t close to new high territory, is some where between the two. My interpretation of these patterns is: 1) Lower interest rates have really boosted the traditional figures; 2) The action of the other two advance-decline lines implies that the number of stocks moving higher is more big-cap-related (meaning small and mid caps have lagged behind and the move hasn’t been as broad as many are led to believe), which really boosts the “sound-bite” indices due to their big-cap composition; and 3) Money isn’t leaving the market, it is simply “rotating,” quickly, and will continue to do so!
Let me address another issue concerning the four-year cycle. In early September (September 5), I stated and repeated (September 6) my belief, based on the fact that EVERYONE was looking for a seasonal low starting some time this month, that we let the market itself dictate whether it was going to sell off or not, versus relying on the “seasonals.” I still feel this way.
Recognizing the difficult situation that lower energy prices and the sell-off in the energy complex prior to and during this period has had on portfolios, in trying to bring something positive to the table, on the next page is a long-term chart of Natural Gas (@NG.1/$4.93).
What you can see is that multiple parabolic moves (some bigger and longer than others) to the upside followed by subsequent parabolic moves down seemed to ultimately find support in the area of $4.50. If I extend this through a bit more, let me say that the odds favor Natural Gas finding support somewhere in the vicinity of the range shown below, between $4.52 and $3.74.