Fleursdumal
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Bonjour a tout les bondaroles
cot sui bonds
cot sui bonds
Derivati USA: CME-CBOT-NYMEX-ICE T-Bond-10y-Bund : la maledizione di f4f (vm18)
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Fleursdumal
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oh oh siamo alla soglia del break verso il basso
Treasury prices extend losses on July flows data
Mon Sep 18, 2006
NEW YORK, Sept 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices extended losses on Monday after data showed a low net inflow into U.S. government bonds in July.
Benchmark 10-year notes <US10YT> traded down 10/32 in price for a yield of 4.84 percent, compared with 4.82 percent just before the report and 4.80 percent late on Friday. Bond yields and prices move inversely.
Net purchases of Treasuries in July slipped to just $6.59 billion, down from $26.99 billion in net purchases in June, the Treasury Department reported.
Treasury prices extend losses on July flows data
Mon Sep 18, 2006
NEW YORK, Sept 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices extended losses on Monday after data showed a low net inflow into U.S. government bonds in July.
Benchmark 10-year notes <US10YT> traded down 10/32 in price for a yield of 4.84 percent, compared with 4.82 percent just before the report and 4.80 percent late on Friday. Bond yields and prices move inversely.
Net purchases of Treasuries in July slipped to just $6.59 billion, down from $26.99 billion in net purchases in June, the Treasury Department reported.
Fernando'S
Forumer storico
.......buonasela 
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collegio dei patafisici
Fernando'S ha scritto:.......buonasela
Immagine sostituita con URL per un solo Quote: http://213.215.144.81/public_html/fotodelgiorno/20060930ft_big.jpg
L'arte dello sfuocamento non mi ha mai esaltato...
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collegio dei patafisici
Investment Strategy
by Jeffrey Saut
“Mr. Market”
Benjamin Graham, the founder of margin of safety analysis, likened the market to a moody gentleman he called Mr. Market. As recounted by Warren Buffett:
“A remarkably accommodating fellow named Mr. Market . . . is your partner in a private business. Without fail, Mr. Market appears daily and names a price at which he will either buy your interest or sell you his.
Even though the business that the two of you own may have economic characteristics that are stable, Mr. Market's quotations will be anything but. For, sad to say, the poor fellow has incurable emotional problems. At times he feels euphoric and can see only the favorable factors affecting the business. When in that mood, he names a very high buy-sell price because he fears that you will snap up his interest and rob him of imminent gains. At other times he is depressed and can see nothing but trouble ahead for both the business and the world. On these occasions he will name a very low price, since he is terrified that you will unload your interest on him.
Mr. Market has another endearing characteristic: He doesn't mind being ignored. If his quotation is uninteresting to you today, he will be back with a new one tomorrow. Transactions are strictly at your option. Under these conditions, the more manic-depressive his behavior, the better for you.
But, like Cinderella at the ball, you must heed one warning or everything will turn into pumpkins and mice: Mr. Market is there to serve you, not to guide you. It is his pocketbook, not his wisdom, that you will find useful. If he shows up some day in a particularly foolish mood, you are free to either ignore him or to take advantage of him, but it will be disastrous if you fall under his influence. Indeed, if you aren't certain that you understand and can value your business far better than Mr. Market, you don't belong in the game. As they say in poker, ‘If you've been in the game 30 minutes and you don't know who the patsy is, you're the patsy.’”
I encountered the above witticism while reading some of Warren Buffet’s prose back in the 1980s. Like other old stock market “saws,” it has stuck with me over the years because the wisdom it imparts is invaluable, for as often stated in these missives, “Patience is the rarest thing on Wall Street!” Indeed, “Mr. Market has another endearing characteristic: He doesn't mind being ignored. If his quotation is uninteresting to you today, he will be back with a new one tomorrow. Transactions are strictly at your option. Under these conditions, the more manic-depressive his behavior, the better for you.”
Clearly, “Mr. Market” was manic back in mid-June when we flatly stated on CNBC that we were “buying” stocks/indices on June 13, 2006. More recently, however, we have been ignoring “Mr. Market” for the most part, despite our repeated lament that, “It feels to us like the DJIA is going to track-out to a new all-time high (above 11722) totally unconfirmed by most of the other indices.” We have further commented that the current environment reminds us of December 1972/January 1973, where the DJIA was trading higher while the fundamentals were deteriorating, although we are NOT forecasting a debacle like the 1973/1974 affair. To us, the present situation was best reprised by one particularly prescient market aficionado whose email read:
“We need a little help here. With bubblevision going gaga over the Dow and S&P testing the May highs, and Mr. Cramer having everyone firing up their pickers to overdrive, lost in the fray seems to be a rather important fact that none of the other indexes are anywhere near recording new highs. Consider this, the Russell 2000, MDY (S&P Midcap ETF), the NASDAQ, the NDX (NASDAQ 100), the Dow Transports, and many of the global markets (in general), are as much as 7-8% from their respective May highs. It seems to me that this could be considered a major (upside) non-confirmation since the Dow, S&P and OEX are testing, or have bettered, their May highs. Your thoughts would be greatly appreciated.”
Obviously, we agree with those “non-confirmation” technical insights given our short-term timid trading posture. We have also averred that while we don’t think a recession is in the offing (a view held since 2001), we do believe the economy is on a glide-path to “muddle,” or a substantial reduction in GDP growth. That sense was recently reinforced by Merrill Lynch’s David Rosenberg, who dissected the Fed’s recent comments by scribing:
“The staff forecast prepared for this meeting indicated that real GDP growth would slow in the second half of 2006 and 2007, and to a lower rate than had been anticipated in the prior forecast. The marking down of the outlook was largely attributable to the annual revision of the national income and product accounts, which involved downward revisions to actual GDP growth in prior years and prompted reductions in the staff’s estimate of potential output. The slowdown in the housing market, the effects of higher energy prices on household purchasing power, the waning impetus of household wealth effects on consumer spending, and the effects of past policy tightening were expected to hold economic growth below potential over the next six quarters.”
Ladies and gentlemen, six quarters of sub-par growth is a pretty long time for a stock market that is optimistically valued. Yes, optimistically valued (17.6x earnings and a dividend yield of 1.9% basis the S&P 500), for despite the talking heads’ rantings that stocks are “cheap,” history shows that sub-10x earnings is indeed cheap! Verily, at EVERY stock market low in history the major markets have sported a P/E ratio of below 10x with a concurrent dividend yield of above 4.5%. That does not, by the way, mean that stocks cannot rally in the near-term, for we have learned the hard way the stock market can do anything! It does, however, mean that the historic odds favor caution . . . again a view shared by Warren Buffet.
For months we have opined that the question the markets were struggling with was, “Is this the fabled mid-economic slowdown, or something worse?” Over the past few weeks the markets have obviously embraced the view that this is merely a mid-cycle slowdown emboldened by the 31% silent-crash in gasoline prices, as seen in the attendant chart. While we certainly hope this is the case, we would still rather buy into those names that have already “crashed” rather than pay-up for the “darlings” du jour. To this point, two names mentioned over the past few weeks in these reports have been Strong Buy-rated Chesapeake Corporation (CHK/$29.05), where we are using the 4.9%-yielding convertible preferred, and the 8.6%-yielding Strong Buy rated shares of Trinidad Drilling Trust (TDGNF/$13.81). Last week, we had dinner with Trinidad’s CEO, which only served to reinforce our conviction for this growth-oriented income trust.
In conclusion,
“But, like Cinderella at the ball, you must heed one warning or everything will turn into pumpkins and mice: Mr. Market is there to serve you, not to guide you. It is his pocketbook, not his wisdom, that you will find useful. If he shows up some day in a particularly foolish mood, you are free to either ignore him or to take advantage of him, but it will be disastrous if you fall under his influence. Indeed, if you aren't certain that you understand and can value your business far better than Mr. Market, you don't belong in the game. As they say in poker, ‘If you've been in the game 30 minutes and you don't know who the patsy is, you're the patsy.’”
The call for this week: “162 points and counting,” was our abbreviated “call” last Thursday morning, and again this morning, as the Dow is a mere 162 points from its all-time high of 11722. We think the DJIA will break out to a new all-time high totally unconfirmed by most of the other indices (read: upside non-confirmation). To that sequence, it is worth noting that the S&P 500’s 50-day moving average (DMA) crossed above its 200-DMA last week, which should be viewed as a confirmation of the positive momentum currently driving the equity markets. Also of note is the fact that value stocks have produced a trailing total return of at least twice the total return of growth stocks over the 1, 3, 5, and 10 years ending 8/31/06, leaving large-cap “growth stocks” cheaper than value stocks for the first time in 30 years (see the nearby chart). We continue to look for growth stock ideas in the large-cap universe, not mega-cap universe, many of which have been mentioned in these reports. We also like the idea of dividend-yielding stocks for the low return investment environment we envision for the foreseeable future as we continue to chant, “The difference between perceptions and reality is where investors’ opportunities lie . . .”
September 18, 2006
by Jeffrey Saut
“Mr. Market”
Benjamin Graham, the founder of margin of safety analysis, likened the market to a moody gentleman he called Mr. Market. As recounted by Warren Buffett:
“A remarkably accommodating fellow named Mr. Market . . . is your partner in a private business. Without fail, Mr. Market appears daily and names a price at which he will either buy your interest or sell you his.
Even though the business that the two of you own may have economic characteristics that are stable, Mr. Market's quotations will be anything but. For, sad to say, the poor fellow has incurable emotional problems. At times he feels euphoric and can see only the favorable factors affecting the business. When in that mood, he names a very high buy-sell price because he fears that you will snap up his interest and rob him of imminent gains. At other times he is depressed and can see nothing but trouble ahead for both the business and the world. On these occasions he will name a very low price, since he is terrified that you will unload your interest on him.
Mr. Market has another endearing characteristic: He doesn't mind being ignored. If his quotation is uninteresting to you today, he will be back with a new one tomorrow. Transactions are strictly at your option. Under these conditions, the more manic-depressive his behavior, the better for you.
But, like Cinderella at the ball, you must heed one warning or everything will turn into pumpkins and mice: Mr. Market is there to serve you, not to guide you. It is his pocketbook, not his wisdom, that you will find useful. If he shows up some day in a particularly foolish mood, you are free to either ignore him or to take advantage of him, but it will be disastrous if you fall under his influence. Indeed, if you aren't certain that you understand and can value your business far better than Mr. Market, you don't belong in the game. As they say in poker, ‘If you've been in the game 30 minutes and you don't know who the patsy is, you're the patsy.’”
I encountered the above witticism while reading some of Warren Buffet’s prose back in the 1980s. Like other old stock market “saws,” it has stuck with me over the years because the wisdom it imparts is invaluable, for as often stated in these missives, “Patience is the rarest thing on Wall Street!” Indeed, “Mr. Market has another endearing characteristic: He doesn't mind being ignored. If his quotation is uninteresting to you today, he will be back with a new one tomorrow. Transactions are strictly at your option. Under these conditions, the more manic-depressive his behavior, the better for you.”
Clearly, “Mr. Market” was manic back in mid-June when we flatly stated on CNBC that we were “buying” stocks/indices on June 13, 2006. More recently, however, we have been ignoring “Mr. Market” for the most part, despite our repeated lament that, “It feels to us like the DJIA is going to track-out to a new all-time high (above 11722) totally unconfirmed by most of the other indices.” We have further commented that the current environment reminds us of December 1972/January 1973, where the DJIA was trading higher while the fundamentals were deteriorating, although we are NOT forecasting a debacle like the 1973/1974 affair. To us, the present situation was best reprised by one particularly prescient market aficionado whose email read:
“We need a little help here. With bubblevision going gaga over the Dow and S&P testing the May highs, and Mr. Cramer having everyone firing up their pickers to overdrive, lost in the fray seems to be a rather important fact that none of the other indexes are anywhere near recording new highs. Consider this, the Russell 2000, MDY (S&P Midcap ETF), the NASDAQ, the NDX (NASDAQ 100), the Dow Transports, and many of the global markets (in general), are as much as 7-8% from their respective May highs. It seems to me that this could be considered a major (upside) non-confirmation since the Dow, S&P and OEX are testing, or have bettered, their May highs. Your thoughts would be greatly appreciated.”
Obviously, we agree with those “non-confirmation” technical insights given our short-term timid trading posture. We have also averred that while we don’t think a recession is in the offing (a view held since 2001), we do believe the economy is on a glide-path to “muddle,” or a substantial reduction in GDP growth. That sense was recently reinforced by Merrill Lynch’s David Rosenberg, who dissected the Fed’s recent comments by scribing:
“The staff forecast prepared for this meeting indicated that real GDP growth would slow in the second half of 2006 and 2007, and to a lower rate than had been anticipated in the prior forecast. The marking down of the outlook was largely attributable to the annual revision of the national income and product accounts, which involved downward revisions to actual GDP growth in prior years and prompted reductions in the staff’s estimate of potential output. The slowdown in the housing market, the effects of higher energy prices on household purchasing power, the waning impetus of household wealth effects on consumer spending, and the effects of past policy tightening were expected to hold economic growth below potential over the next six quarters.”
Ladies and gentlemen, six quarters of sub-par growth is a pretty long time for a stock market that is optimistically valued. Yes, optimistically valued (17.6x earnings and a dividend yield of 1.9% basis the S&P 500), for despite the talking heads’ rantings that stocks are “cheap,” history shows that sub-10x earnings is indeed cheap! Verily, at EVERY stock market low in history the major markets have sported a P/E ratio of below 10x with a concurrent dividend yield of above 4.5%. That does not, by the way, mean that stocks cannot rally in the near-term, for we have learned the hard way the stock market can do anything! It does, however, mean that the historic odds favor caution . . . again a view shared by Warren Buffet.
For months we have opined that the question the markets were struggling with was, “Is this the fabled mid-economic slowdown, or something worse?” Over the past few weeks the markets have obviously embraced the view that this is merely a mid-cycle slowdown emboldened by the 31% silent-crash in gasoline prices, as seen in the attendant chart. While we certainly hope this is the case, we would still rather buy into those names that have already “crashed” rather than pay-up for the “darlings” du jour. To this point, two names mentioned over the past few weeks in these reports have been Strong Buy-rated Chesapeake Corporation (CHK/$29.05), where we are using the 4.9%-yielding convertible preferred, and the 8.6%-yielding Strong Buy rated shares of Trinidad Drilling Trust (TDGNF/$13.81). Last week, we had dinner with Trinidad’s CEO, which only served to reinforce our conviction for this growth-oriented income trust.
In conclusion,
“But, like Cinderella at the ball, you must heed one warning or everything will turn into pumpkins and mice: Mr. Market is there to serve you, not to guide you. It is his pocketbook, not his wisdom, that you will find useful. If he shows up some day in a particularly foolish mood, you are free to either ignore him or to take advantage of him, but it will be disastrous if you fall under his influence. Indeed, if you aren't certain that you understand and can value your business far better than Mr. Market, you don't belong in the game. As they say in poker, ‘If you've been in the game 30 minutes and you don't know who the patsy is, you're the patsy.’”
The call for this week: “162 points and counting,” was our abbreviated “call” last Thursday morning, and again this morning, as the Dow is a mere 162 points from its all-time high of 11722. We think the DJIA will break out to a new all-time high totally unconfirmed by most of the other indices (read: upside non-confirmation). To that sequence, it is worth noting that the S&P 500’s 50-day moving average (DMA) crossed above its 200-DMA last week, which should be viewed as a confirmation of the positive momentum currently driving the equity markets. Also of note is the fact that value stocks have produced a trailing total return of at least twice the total return of growth stocks over the 1, 3, 5, and 10 years ending 8/31/06, leaving large-cap “growth stocks” cheaper than value stocks for the first time in 30 years (see the nearby chart). We continue to look for growth stock ideas in the large-cap universe, not mega-cap universe, many of which have been mentioned in these reports. We also like the idea of dividend-yielding stocks for the low return investment environment we envision for the foreseeable future as we continue to chant, “The difference between perceptions and reality is where investors’ opportunities lie . . .”
September 18, 2006
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collegio dei patafisici
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collegio dei patafisici
Homebuilder confidence hits 15-year low
Association says builder optimism has dropped as the number of unsold houses has risen.
September 18 2006: 2:27 PM EDT
NEW YORK (Reuters) -- U.S. homebuilder optimism sank for an eighth consecutive month in September to the lowest level in more than 15 years, with a surge in the backlog of unsold homes putting development on ice, an industry survey showed on Monday.
The National Association of Home Builders said its index of homebuilder sentiment sank 3 points in September to 30, the lowest since February 1991, when the economy had slipped into recession. August's figure had been revised upward to 33 from 32.
Best Places to Live
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Eden Prairie, Minn....finalist
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All places, state by state
Related
Help! Home for sale
Travel agents tell why they would rather have a single-family house with more space and a backyard. (more)
Builders hit the brakes
Latest reading of housing starts, permits shows more of a slowdown than expected as builders continue pull back in once hot sector of economy. (more)
Most affordable housing markets
Midwest cities lead the nation in housing affordability, according to an index by the National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo. (more)
Quick VoteHow bad will the housing market get?
Crash
Regional bubbles will burst
Gradual orderly slowdown
Too early to say
or View results
The NAHB said its gauge of sales expectations for the next six months fell 4 points to 37, indicating members see further downward momentum in the housing industry. The measure for current sales of new homes declined 5 points to 32.
"It's about a degree of oversupply and how builders will work it down," including cutbacks on new construction, said NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders. Many buyers on the sidelines are unmoved by "substantial incentives," so price cuts are becoming more frequent, he said.
A reading below 50 means more builders view sales conditions as poor rather than good.
Builders continued to report increases in cancellations of sales contracts and inventories of unsold homes, especially for the bigger companies, Seiders said.
Inventories of existing homes have soared 40 percent over the past year to 3.86 million units, or a 7.3 months' supply at the current sales pace, according to the National Association of Realtors real estate group.
Seiders last week told Congress that the slump in home sales and production will not bottom out until mid-2007, even though growth in jobs and income is supportive of the sector. House prices are expected to be flat in coming months and declines are a "distinct possibility," he said.
The NAHB's gauge of prospective buyer traffic was unchanged at 22 in September. While stable, the level does not indicate stabilization in the market, Seiders said.
"Builders are adopting an increasingly cautious attitude in their near-term outlook for new home sales," he said.
Shares of the nation's leading home builders traded mixed Monday, including Lennar (down $0.24 to $46.15, Charts), KB Home (up $0.00 to $45.70, Charts), Toll Brothers (down $0.17 to $27.92, Charts), and Beazer Homes (up $0.45 to $40.05, Charts).
Association says builder optimism has dropped as the number of unsold houses has risen.
September 18 2006: 2:27 PM EDT
NEW YORK (Reuters) -- U.S. homebuilder optimism sank for an eighth consecutive month in September to the lowest level in more than 15 years, with a surge in the backlog of unsold homes putting development on ice, an industry survey showed on Monday.
The National Association of Home Builders said its index of homebuilder sentiment sank 3 points in September to 30, the lowest since February 1991, when the economy had slipped into recession. August's figure had been revised upward to 33 from 32.
Best Places to Live
Key Stats
Eden Prairie, Minn....finalist
More places in Minnesota
All places, state by state
Related
Help! Home for sale
Travel agents tell why they would rather have a single-family house with more space and a backyard. (more)
Builders hit the brakes
Latest reading of housing starts, permits shows more of a slowdown than expected as builders continue pull back in once hot sector of economy. (more)
Most affordable housing markets
Midwest cities lead the nation in housing affordability, according to an index by the National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo. (more)
Quick VoteHow bad will the housing market get?
Crash
Regional bubbles will burst
Gradual orderly slowdown
Too early to say
or View results
The NAHB said its gauge of sales expectations for the next six months fell 4 points to 37, indicating members see further downward momentum in the housing industry. The measure for current sales of new homes declined 5 points to 32.
"It's about a degree of oversupply and how builders will work it down," including cutbacks on new construction, said NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders. Many buyers on the sidelines are unmoved by "substantial incentives," so price cuts are becoming more frequent, he said.
A reading below 50 means more builders view sales conditions as poor rather than good.
Builders continued to report increases in cancellations of sales contracts and inventories of unsold homes, especially for the bigger companies, Seiders said.
Inventories of existing homes have soared 40 percent over the past year to 3.86 million units, or a 7.3 months' supply at the current sales pace, according to the National Association of Realtors real estate group.
Seiders last week told Congress that the slump in home sales and production will not bottom out until mid-2007, even though growth in jobs and income is supportive of the sector. House prices are expected to be flat in coming months and declines are a "distinct possibility," he said.
The NAHB's gauge of prospective buyer traffic was unchanged at 22 in September. While stable, the level does not indicate stabilization in the market, Seiders said.
"Builders are adopting an increasingly cautious attitude in their near-term outlook for new home sales," he said.
Shares of the nation's leading home builders traded mixed Monday, including Lennar (down $0.24 to $46.15, Charts), KB Home (up $0.00 to $45.70, Charts), Toll Brothers (down $0.17 to $27.92, Charts), and Beazer Homes (up $0.45 to $40.05, Charts).
