Derivati USA: CME-CBOT-NYMEX-ICE T-Bronx5Y-10Y-Bund .. il ritorno del figliol prodigo (vm18)
- Creatore Discussione ditropan
- Data di Inizio
Fernando'S
Forumer storico
Fleursdumal ha scritto:giovincelli dobbiamo riprendere in mano (
) ...........
caro Fleurs..... qua l'affare s'ingrossa .......
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Anche oggi carry carry guaglio gipa remix
Non è carry levereggiato ma pur sempre carry è..... e l'effetto è il medesimo.
The yen carry trade: It's not 1998 all over again
Felix Salmon | Nov 10, 2006
Economists always love to speculate, especially about the yen/dollar carry trade. But sometimes it's good to look at things emprically – which is where sell-side institutions come in particularly useful. They have their fair share of economists, of course, but they also have propritary flow data, which can help to determine which orifice the economists are talking out of.
Philip Brass, at Citigroup, had a look at his bank's data on dollar/yen, and has decided that the carry trade bears very little similarity to 1998, when macro hedge funds pushed the exchange rate all the way up to 136, only to see it collapse to 111.50 in a single day. Rather, he says, it's domestic Japanese investors who are driving the technicals these days, and they're not about to change their behavior any time soon:
Ironically, the macro hedge funds have been the sector least willing to jump on board the Yen-selling bandwagon despite the rumours of over-extended ‘carry trades’ by leveraged investors...
The macro-discretionary leveraged funds have also sold a significant amount of Yen – but they were predominantly unwinding Yen longs...
Despite Japanese investors not being the usual focal point for the carry trade (as normally defined), it is only this group that have shown concerted interest to sell significant amounts of Yen in the past two years, as they abandon the Japanese bond markets for more attractive yields abroad. Indeed, they may constitute the new player in the current version of the carry trade. However, given the current pattern of Japanese flows, the rates of return available domestically and the legacy of super-conservative investment policies during the dark days of the 1990’s, the evidence is that this is flow out of Japan is set to continue.
Brass concludes:
For all the reasons discussed above we are not surprised that the Yen has been weak – there has been a lot of Yen selling. But of all the sellers of Yen, the case for the traditional carry trade as a catalyst is the weakest...
Furthermore we think that the backdrop for Yen weakness remains in place, fuelled by the key marginal player over the past two years - the Japanese investors. While we would argue their cross-border investment decisions constitute the new carry trade, we do not think that the conditions for a reversal are near.
(All emphasis in the original.)
If Brass is right – and he does have all Citi's flow data to work with, so there's a good chance he knows whereof he speaks – the dollar could stay much stronger for much longer than most economists predict.
Non è carry levereggiato ma pur sempre carry è..... e l'effetto è il medesimo.
The yen carry trade: It's not 1998 all over again
Felix Salmon | Nov 10, 2006
Economists always love to speculate, especially about the yen/dollar carry trade. But sometimes it's good to look at things emprically – which is where sell-side institutions come in particularly useful. They have their fair share of economists, of course, but they also have propritary flow data, which can help to determine which orifice the economists are talking out of.
Philip Brass, at Citigroup, had a look at his bank's data on dollar/yen, and has decided that the carry trade bears very little similarity to 1998, when macro hedge funds pushed the exchange rate all the way up to 136, only to see it collapse to 111.50 in a single day. Rather, he says, it's domestic Japanese investors who are driving the technicals these days, and they're not about to change their behavior any time soon:
Ironically, the macro hedge funds have been the sector least willing to jump on board the Yen-selling bandwagon despite the rumours of over-extended ‘carry trades’ by leveraged investors...
The macro-discretionary leveraged funds have also sold a significant amount of Yen – but they were predominantly unwinding Yen longs...
Despite Japanese investors not being the usual focal point for the carry trade (as normally defined), it is only this group that have shown concerted interest to sell significant amounts of Yen in the past two years, as they abandon the Japanese bond markets for more attractive yields abroad. Indeed, they may constitute the new player in the current version of the carry trade. However, given the current pattern of Japanese flows, the rates of return available domestically and the legacy of super-conservative investment policies during the dark days of the 1990’s, the evidence is that this is flow out of Japan is set to continue.
Brass concludes:
For all the reasons discussed above we are not surprised that the Yen has been weak – there has been a lot of Yen selling. But of all the sellers of Yen, the case for the traditional carry trade as a catalyst is the weakest...
Furthermore we think that the backdrop for Yen weakness remains in place, fuelled by the key marginal player over the past two years - the Japanese investors. While we would argue their cross-border investment decisions constitute the new carry trade, we do not think that the conditions for a reversal are near.
(All emphasis in the original.)
If Brass is right – and he does have all Citi's flow data to work with, so there's a good chance he knows whereof he speaks – the dollar could stay much stronger for much longer than most economists predict.
Fernando'S
Forumer storico
e quindi ?
so 'ntronato dagli stop
so 'ntronato dagli stop
Leo's
Forumer storico
gipa69 ha scritto:Ragazzi... troppi in short.......
Immagine sostituita con URL per un solo Quote: http://www.investireoggi.it/phpBB2/immagini/1163268231publicshortcurrent.png
and so? vuol dire che ce fregano tutti quanti e si vola a nuovi max?
quicksilver
Forumer storico
gipa69 ha scritto:Ragazzi... troppi in short.......
Immagine sostituita con URL per un solo Quote: http://www.investireoggi.it/phpBB2/immagini/1163268231publicshortcurrent.png
Indovina? ..... io non sono short
