Derivati USA: CME-CBOT-NYMEX-ICE T-Bronx5Y-10Y-Bund .. il ritorno del figliol prodigo (vm18)
- Creatore Discussione ditropan
- Data di Inizio
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
lo yen usd ha fatto una finta micidiale today per poi fare la sparata dopo i dati; il T-bronx sta andando a riprendere gli ultimi max sopra i 113 , lì si parrà sua nobilitate
eh op op op il cammello è catalitico è miitiicoo
eh op op op il cammello è catalitico è miitiicoo
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Yen to Rise as Central Banks Buy Currency, ABN Says (Update1)
By Chris Young
Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) -- The yen will appreciate as central banks join the Swiss National Bank in raising their holdings of the currency to take advantage of its lower value and prospects for higher Japanese interest rates, said ABN Amro Holding NV.
The Swiss central bank is the latest to signal renewed interest in the yen as it trades near the weakest this year against the dollar and a record-low versus the euro. Russia's central bank this month said it was considering lifting its holdings of yen, potentially reversing a trend that has seen the currency shrink as a proportion of central bank reserves.
``The yen will become the flavor of central banks,'' Greg Gibbs, a currency strategist at ABN Amro Holding NV in Sydney, said in an interview yesterday. ``They'll view the sustainable recovery of the Japanese economy, the normalizing of interest rates and the yen's relatively cheap levels as favorable.''
The yen, at 117.40 per dollar at 11:40 a.m. in Tokyo from 117.49 in New York yesterday, will climb to 110 by the end of March on central bank buying, said Gibbs. It reached the lowest this year at 119.88 on Oct. 13. Against the euro, it was at 149.35 from a record low of 150.74 on Oct. 27.
Should Asian central banks such as China, with the world's largest foreign-exchange reserves of $988 billion, increase their holdings of the yen, gains will accelerate, he said.
The Swiss National Bank boosted its yen investments by 68 percent to 208.3 billion yen ($1.8 billion) from the end of June, according to figures posted on its Web site Oct. 27.
Pre-Disposed to Buy
Alexei Ulyukayev, the Russian central bank's first deputy chairman, Oct. 16 said he may lift holdings of the yen from almost zero percent. Ulyukayev on Sept. 13 said the monetary authority held 60 percent of its reserves in dollars, 33 percent in euros and 7 percent in British pounds.
Japan's Finance Minister Koji Omi the following day said he welcomed the Russian central bank's plan to buy yen.
``Russia has signaled it wants to start buying yen, so this will make other central banks more pre-disposed to owning yen as well,'' Mansoor Mohi-Uddin, London-based global head of foreign- exchange strategy at UBS AG said Oct. 19.
Central banks in December pared holdings of yen to below those in pounds, leaving Japan's currency as the fourth-largest among reserves, according to the International Monetary Fund.
The share of Japan's currency in total foreign-exchange reserves declined to 3.6 percent as of the end of 2005, from 6.4 percent at the end of 1999, according to the 2006 annual report from the IMF.
Different Currencies
The United Arab Emirates, the second-largest Arab economy, may reduce its holdings of dollars by almost half in an effort to reduce its dependence on the weakening U.S. currency, the country's central bank governor said.
The bank wants to eventually lower the share of dollars in its foreign currency reserves to a range of between 50 percent and 90 percent, Sultan Nasser al-Suwaidi told reporters yesterday in Abu Dhabi. The U.A.E. official said 98 percent of foreign reserves holdings of about $25 billion are currently held in dollars.
``It's our investment policy to diversify into different currencies,'' al-Suwaidi said, while attending a meeting of Gulf central bankers. The bank is currently studying when to expand its current holdings of euros to 10 percent of the total reserves from 2 percent, he added.
`Hawkish Overtones'
The yen has fallen out of favor with central banks because they can earn higher returns elsewhere. Ten-year benchmark Japanese government bonds yield 1.73 percent compared with 4.67 percent for like-dated U.S. Treasury notes.
Central banks will be drawn to the yen as the Bank of Japan boosts its key interest rate of 0.25 percent through next year as the economy expands, said Gibbs.
The Bank of Japan will raise its outlook for gross domestic product in a semi-annual report after a policy meeting today, the Yomiuri newspaper said Oct. 28.
``There's some scope for the Bank of Japan to show its hawkish overtones,'' Gibbs said. ``Given the way the market is trading, this will support the yen.''
All but one of 39 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expects Japan's central bank to keep its key interest rate at 0.25 percent. Of them, 32 forecast a rate increase by March 31, with 18 predicting the central bank will raise borrowing costs by the end of 2006.
``The bottom line is the yen is a currency that has been out of favor for central banks,'' said Gibbs. ``Buying yen from a diversification point of view now makes sense.''
By Chris Young
Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) -- The yen will appreciate as central banks join the Swiss National Bank in raising their holdings of the currency to take advantage of its lower value and prospects for higher Japanese interest rates, said ABN Amro Holding NV.
The Swiss central bank is the latest to signal renewed interest in the yen as it trades near the weakest this year against the dollar and a record-low versus the euro. Russia's central bank this month said it was considering lifting its holdings of yen, potentially reversing a trend that has seen the currency shrink as a proportion of central bank reserves.
``The yen will become the flavor of central banks,'' Greg Gibbs, a currency strategist at ABN Amro Holding NV in Sydney, said in an interview yesterday. ``They'll view the sustainable recovery of the Japanese economy, the normalizing of interest rates and the yen's relatively cheap levels as favorable.''
The yen, at 117.40 per dollar at 11:40 a.m. in Tokyo from 117.49 in New York yesterday, will climb to 110 by the end of March on central bank buying, said Gibbs. It reached the lowest this year at 119.88 on Oct. 13. Against the euro, it was at 149.35 from a record low of 150.74 on Oct. 27.
Should Asian central banks such as China, with the world's largest foreign-exchange reserves of $988 billion, increase their holdings of the yen, gains will accelerate, he said.
The Swiss National Bank boosted its yen investments by 68 percent to 208.3 billion yen ($1.8 billion) from the end of June, according to figures posted on its Web site Oct. 27.
Pre-Disposed to Buy
Alexei Ulyukayev, the Russian central bank's first deputy chairman, Oct. 16 said he may lift holdings of the yen from almost zero percent. Ulyukayev on Sept. 13 said the monetary authority held 60 percent of its reserves in dollars, 33 percent in euros and 7 percent in British pounds.
Japan's Finance Minister Koji Omi the following day said he welcomed the Russian central bank's plan to buy yen.
``Russia has signaled it wants to start buying yen, so this will make other central banks more pre-disposed to owning yen as well,'' Mansoor Mohi-Uddin, London-based global head of foreign- exchange strategy at UBS AG said Oct. 19.
Central banks in December pared holdings of yen to below those in pounds, leaving Japan's currency as the fourth-largest among reserves, according to the International Monetary Fund.
The share of Japan's currency in total foreign-exchange reserves declined to 3.6 percent as of the end of 2005, from 6.4 percent at the end of 1999, according to the 2006 annual report from the IMF.
Different Currencies
The United Arab Emirates, the second-largest Arab economy, may reduce its holdings of dollars by almost half in an effort to reduce its dependence on the weakening U.S. currency, the country's central bank governor said.
The bank wants to eventually lower the share of dollars in its foreign currency reserves to a range of between 50 percent and 90 percent, Sultan Nasser al-Suwaidi told reporters yesterday in Abu Dhabi. The U.A.E. official said 98 percent of foreign reserves holdings of about $25 billion are currently held in dollars.
``It's our investment policy to diversify into different currencies,'' al-Suwaidi said, while attending a meeting of Gulf central bankers. The bank is currently studying when to expand its current holdings of euros to 10 percent of the total reserves from 2 percent, he added.
`Hawkish Overtones'
The yen has fallen out of favor with central banks because they can earn higher returns elsewhere. Ten-year benchmark Japanese government bonds yield 1.73 percent compared with 4.67 percent for like-dated U.S. Treasury notes.
Central banks will be drawn to the yen as the Bank of Japan boosts its key interest rate of 0.25 percent through next year as the economy expands, said Gibbs.
The Bank of Japan will raise its outlook for gross domestic product in a semi-annual report after a policy meeting today, the Yomiuri newspaper said Oct. 28.
``There's some scope for the Bank of Japan to show its hawkish overtones,'' Gibbs said. ``Given the way the market is trading, this will support the yen.''
All but one of 39 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expects Japan's central bank to keep its key interest rate at 0.25 percent. Of them, 32 forecast a rate increase by March 31, with 18 predicting the central bank will raise borrowing costs by the end of 2006.
``The bottom line is the yen is a currency that has been out of favor for central banks,'' said Gibbs. ``Buying yen from a diversification point of view now makes sense.''
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
U.S. Treasuries up as economic data comes in soft
Tue Oct 31, 2006
By Burton Frierson
NEW YORK, Oct 31 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices rose on Tuesday, pushing benchmark yields to three-week lows, after unexpectedly soft data supported bets that a slowing economy could lead to Federal Reserve interest rate cuts next year.
Benchmark 10-year notes <US10YT> extended modest early gains to stand 11/32 higher on the day, pushing yields down to 4.63 percent, after surprisingly weak readings on consumer confidence and Midwest business activity.
Ten-year yields were at 4.68 percent on Monday.
However, following losses in recent weeks, 10-year bond prices were still on track to snap a three-month streak of gains, unless they rally a little more strongly before the session's close, though the day's gains had pushed yields to their lowest since Oct. 6.
"The bond market wants to rally today," said Cary Leahey, economist at Decision Economics in New York.
"Sentiment had gotten too negative. That said, it's hard to expect a trader to get too excited one way or the other when you have payroll employment looming on Friday."
Friday's monthly jobs report will be one of the key economic data releases of the week.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index fell to 53.5 from 62.1 in September and below economists' forecast for 58.0. The Conference Board said its index of U.S. consumer sentiment edged down to 105.4 in October from an upwardly revised 105.9 in September. Economists had forecast an October reading of 108.0.
ISM AHEAD
Earlier, bonds had struggled in the face of data showing that U.S. employment costs rose 1.0 percent in the third quarter, the largest increase in more than two years and above economists' consensus expectation for a 0.9 percent increase.
The employment costs report came after Treasuries also struggled on Monday in the wake of Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker's comment that the U.S. economy can withstand more Fed interest rate hikes and his outlook for inflation was "discomforting."
However, on the same day Dallas Fed Bank President Richard Fisher said he was encouraged inflation slowed last month.
Tuesday's consumer confidence data and the Chicago PMI kept focus on the softness in the economy ahead of Wednesday's Institute for Supply Management reading on nation-wide manufacturing.
"The data paint a picture of production being higher than needed. ... ISM will trend down in October," said Keith Hembre, chief economist at FAF Advisors in Minneapolis.
Two-year notes were 2/32 higher, yielding 4.73 percent <US2YT>, compared with 4.76 percent late on Monday and also on pace to break their three-month streak of price gains.
The 30-year bond <US30YT> was up 21/32 in price, to yield 4.74 percent, versus 4.79 percent late on Monday and on track to extend its price rally to a fifth month. This would match a streak of five straight monthly gains two years ago.
Tue Oct 31, 2006
By Burton Frierson
NEW YORK, Oct 31 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices rose on Tuesday, pushing benchmark yields to three-week lows, after unexpectedly soft data supported bets that a slowing economy could lead to Federal Reserve interest rate cuts next year.
Benchmark 10-year notes <US10YT> extended modest early gains to stand 11/32 higher on the day, pushing yields down to 4.63 percent, after surprisingly weak readings on consumer confidence and Midwest business activity.
Ten-year yields were at 4.68 percent on Monday.
However, following losses in recent weeks, 10-year bond prices were still on track to snap a three-month streak of gains, unless they rally a little more strongly before the session's close, though the day's gains had pushed yields to their lowest since Oct. 6.
"The bond market wants to rally today," said Cary Leahey, economist at Decision Economics in New York.
"Sentiment had gotten too negative. That said, it's hard to expect a trader to get too excited one way or the other when you have payroll employment looming on Friday."
Friday's monthly jobs report will be one of the key economic data releases of the week.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index fell to 53.5 from 62.1 in September and below economists' forecast for 58.0. The Conference Board said its index of U.S. consumer sentiment edged down to 105.4 in October from an upwardly revised 105.9 in September. Economists had forecast an October reading of 108.0.
ISM AHEAD
Earlier, bonds had struggled in the face of data showing that U.S. employment costs rose 1.0 percent in the third quarter, the largest increase in more than two years and above economists' consensus expectation for a 0.9 percent increase.
The employment costs report came after Treasuries also struggled on Monday in the wake of Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker's comment that the U.S. economy can withstand more Fed interest rate hikes and his outlook for inflation was "discomforting."
However, on the same day Dallas Fed Bank President Richard Fisher said he was encouraged inflation slowed last month.
Tuesday's consumer confidence data and the Chicago PMI kept focus on the softness in the economy ahead of Wednesday's Institute for Supply Management reading on nation-wide manufacturing.
"The data paint a picture of production being higher than needed. ... ISM will trend down in October," said Keith Hembre, chief economist at FAF Advisors in Minneapolis.
Two-year notes were 2/32 higher, yielding 4.73 percent <US2YT>, compared with 4.76 percent late on Monday and also on pace to break their three-month streak of price gains.
The 30-year bond <US30YT> was up 21/32 in price, to yield 4.74 percent, versus 4.79 percent late on Monday and on track to extend its price rally to a fifth month. This would match a streak of five straight monthly gains two years ago.
frank73
OPTION TRADER
Dovremmo aver finito qui la salita,ho comprato altre 5 put in chiusura.(quota 10 116 dec esposizione leggerissima).
117.80 è un buon livello al pari di 112.60 per il t-bond.
L'euribor ad un anno è al 3.86 i rendimenti sul bund decennale sono al 3.80 fate vobis.
I cross sullo yen sono stretti alle corde.
Comunque qui si gioca la partita,fino dicembre.
Qualcuno tra azionario e obbligazionario dovra cedere è la vittima sacrificale è la stessa di un mese fa.
Non credo che l'equity venga giu proprio adesso.
Non tocchero niente fino a venerdi sui payrolls .
Saluti e buon trading.
117.80 è un buon livello al pari di 112.60 per il t-bond.
L'euribor ad un anno è al 3.86 i rendimenti sul bund decennale sono al 3.80 fate vobis.
I cross sullo yen sono stretti alle corde.
Comunque qui si gioca la partita,fino dicembre.
Qualcuno tra azionario e obbligazionario dovra cedere è la vittima sacrificale è la stessa di un mese fa.
Non credo che l'equity venga giu proprio adesso.
Non tocchero niente fino a venerdi sui payrolls .
Saluti e buon trading.
Andrea 53
Forumer storico
due giorni del cappero , pareggiato uscite BUND con entrate STOXX
ora liquidato STOXX resto con 2 BUND short pdc 117,77
vediamo se per fine settimana si incamera qualcosa !
chiuso il mensile con 1050 € di GAIN
è la prima volta che il gain supera i 350 € ...per me grande festa
domani comincia un altro mensile
ora liquidato STOXX resto con 2 BUND short pdc 117,77
vediamo se per fine settimana si incamera qualcosa !
chiuso il mensile con 1050 € di GAIN
è la prima volta che il gain supera i 350 € ...per me grande festa
domani comincia un altro mensile
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
frank73 ha scritto:
Ottimo
vedremo chi viene giù.... per il momento in realtà chi ha patito di più (relativamente....) è stato l'azionario che però è stato salvato da flussi in entrata.Ora tenuto conto che il petrolio sul finale ha recuperato (grazie anche alla debolezza del dollaro) i bond hanno chiuso forte e l'oro è rimasto sopra 600.
Quindi il mercato oggi ha paura che la crescita rallenti troppo per cui in questo scenario anche le azioni potrebbero patire ma le chiusure di inizio giornata sono state compensate dal recupero di fine giornate con liquidità (almeno in parte) proveniente dagli investitori individuali come si evince dal rapporto dei flussi in entrata su un fondo rialzista ed uno ribassista della famiglia rydex:
L'intervento degli individuali è massiccio ed avviene con una certa urgenza.
Sarà interessante vedere quando il flusso si riduce cosa succederà.
generali1984
Forumer storico
Un salutone al neo Papà 
