Interessante..... i dati economici giapponesi sembrano in ralentamento (disoccupazione in rialzo e le spese dei consumatori in calo ma la banca centrali lancia allarmi sull'inflazione futura.......
Si vogliono sgonfiare a tutti i costi le pressioni inflazionistiche....
Japan Jobless Rate Rises; Household Spending Falls (Update3)
By Jason Clenfield and Toru Fujioka
Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's unemployment rate unexpectedly rose, wage growth stalled and household spending fell, undermining the Bank of Japan's case for raising interest- rates.
The jobless rate climbed to 4.2 percent in September and household spending fell 6 percent, the statistics bureau said today in Tokyo. Wages including overtime and bonuses were unchanged, the labor ministry said in a separate report.
Stagnant wages may delay the pickup in consumer spending needed to insulate the economy from a slowdown in the U.S., Japan's largest export market. The central bank, which releases its semi-annual outlook report today, has said it will examine prices as well as the economy when making a decision on raising interest rates for a second time in six years.
``It's clear private consumption doesn't have momentum and the reason is wages,'' said Hiroshi Shiraishi, an economist at Lehman Brothers Japan Inc. Consumer spending may be a drag on economic growth in the third quarter and ``that would make it difficult for the Bank of Japan to raise rates this year.''
The yen traded at 117.65 per dollar at 10:34 a.m. in Tokyo compared with 117.49 before the reports were released. The jobless rate was higher than the 4.1 percent median forecast of 33 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The drop in household spending was almost three times as much as forecast.
Industrial production fell from a record in September, a report showed yesterday, and may shrink in the fourth quarter should the slowest growth in three years in the U.S. cut orders.
Exports, Retail Sales
Japan's economy has suffered three recessions since 1991, two coming as export sales flagged. Slackening demand from abroad could ``spoil'' Japan's longest expansion since World War II, according to the Asian Development Bank.
Household spending has dropped every month this year, the statistics bureau report showed today. Retail sales have been ``flat,'' trade ministry spokesman Takahide Arai said last week.
``The private consumption story has long been the important missing link in the current Japanese recovery,'' Stephen Roach, chief economist for Morgan Stanley said in a note dated Oct. 20. ``A Japan that is lacking in support for a self-sustaining internal consumption dynamic is by definition more dependent'' on capital spending and external demand.
Raw Material Costs
Japanese businesses have been reluctant to increase salaries while costs of fuel and raw materials have been rising. An index of prices that companies pay for energy and raw materials such as iron ore surged 3.6 percent in September from a year earlier, the most in 25 years.
``Companies are maintaining better-than-expected profits by containing wages,'' said Hiromichi Shirakawa, chief economist at Credit Suisse Group in Tokyo. Slow pay growth is ``causing weak consumer spending.''
The jobs-to-applicants ratio, which shows how many positions are on offer to a seeker, held at 1.08 in September, as 110,000 people left the job market, the labor ministry said.
Pay gains since January amounted to only 8,400 yen ($70), about the cost of filling the tank on a Toyota Corolla. Average pay fell almost 10 percent between 1997 and 2005, a cut of more than 400,000 yen, the labor ministry says.
For every 100 job applicants in September there were only 64 fulltime positions available, down from 65 in January. Part- time and temporary positions were available at more than twice those rates.
Japan's jobless rate is the second lowest among the Group of Seven economies, behind the United Kingdom's 3 percent.
The economy is now in its 57th month of growth, equaling the so-called Izanagi boom of 1965-1970, the longest expansion since World War II. Japan's jobless rate hit 4.0 percent in May, the lowest since 1998.
To contact the reporter on this story: Jason Clenfield in Tokyo at
[email protected]
Last Updated: October 30, 2006 20:39 EST
BOJ Forecasts Inflation to Accelerate Next Year (Update2)
By Mayumi Otsuma and Lily Nonomiya
Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's inflation will accelerate next fiscal year, the central bank said, supporting its case for raising the lowest interest rates among major economies.
Core consumer prices, which exclude fresh food, will edge up 0.5 percent in the year ending March 31, 2008, after rising 0.3 percent this fiscal year, the Bank of Japan said in its semi- annual outlook report today, citing the median estimates of its nine policy makers. The bank raised its forecast for economic growth next fiscal year to 2.1 percent from 2 percent, and left the current year's growth projection unchanged at 2.4 percent.
``The report remains upbeat on the economy as a whole,'' said Toru Umemoto, chief currency analyst at Barclays Capital in Tokyo. ``Not so much change was made compared with its April report, thus giving almost no surprise to the markets.''
Today's report highlighted Governor Toshihiko Fukui's concern that pursuing a low-rate policy may spur excessive business investment as the economy emerges from more than seven years of deflation. The price forecast is important because it indicates whether policy makers remain committed to gradually raising rates after an August revision to the consumer price index showed inflation was lower than expected.
``The bank will adjust the level of interest rates gradually in the light of developments in economic activity and prices, while maintaining the accommodative financial conditions ensuing from very low interest rates for some time,'' the central bank said in the report, repeating language used in April.
Capital Spending Risk
The yen traded at 117.56 per dollar at 4:19 p.m. in Tokyo compared with 117.37 shortly before the announcement. The yield on Japan's benchmark 10-year government bond fell 1 basis point to 1.715 percent.
The bank's board earlier today unanimously voted to maintain the benchmark overnight lending rate at 0.25 percent, as expected by 38 of 39 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Fukui reiterated in parliament today that the timing of a rate increase depends on economic and price data. Earlier this month he said he won't rule out an increase in 2006.
The report underlined the central bank's concern that low interest rates, together with a weak yen, may encourage companies to spend excessively.
``With corporate profitability high and prices on a positive trend, the stimulative effect of monetary policy on economic activity and prices may be amplified,'' the bank said. ``Given the extremely accommodative financial conditions, firms may further accelerate investment based on optimistic projections of future profitability, such as favorable expectations regarding the growth rate, financing costs, and foreign exchange rates.''
`Extremely Accommodative'
Companies plan to increase spending by 11.5 percent this fiscal year, the fastest pace in 16 years, the central bank's quarterly Tankan survey of business confidence showed this month. Land prices in the three biggest cities of Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya this year rose for the first time since 1990.
``There are several factors that will put upward pressure on prices, but the most important is that the Bank of Japan has already allowed monetary policy to remain incredibly accommodative until a fairly advanced stage of the economic recovery,'' said Ben Eldred, an economist at Daiwa SMBC in London.
The central bank raised interest rates for the first time in almost six years in July, predicting sustained economic growth and an end to deflation. Of 39 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, 32 forecast a second rate increase by March 31. Eighteen predict the bank will raise borrowing costs by the end of 2006, while seven said it will keep rates on hold this fiscal year.
Inflation Revision
Policy makers lowered their forecasts for core consumer prices from the previous outlook report, citing the reshuffling of the basket of goods used to measure inflation. In the report six months ago the board predicted core consumer prices would rise 0.6 percent this fiscal year and 0.8 percent next year.
The central bank said the August price calculation caused inflation to slow by about 0.5 percentage point. Still, it said, ``most of the effects'' from the change will ``disappear after the first year.''
Some economists said the central bank will have difficulty persuading politicians before raising rates, given that inflation will stay low.
Kazunori Tanaka, the senior vice finance minister who represents the ministry at the central bank's board meetings, told parliament last week the bank's policy should continue to support economic growth as there's little concern inflation will accelerate rapidly.
Government Pressure
``The government is pressuring the Bank of Japan to avoid an additional rate increase, arguing there is little threat from inflation in the country,'' said Yasunari Ueno, chief market economist at Mizuho Securities Japan Co.
Japan's core consumer prices rose 0.2 percent in September from a year earlier, less than the 0.3 percent expected by economists. A recent drop in oil prices slowed inflation, the government said on Oct. 27.
The bank downplayed the risk that an economic slowdown in the U.S., Japan's biggest market, would affect economic growth. The world's largest economy expanded at an annual 1.6 percent pace in the third quarter, the slowest in more than three years, as homebuilding waned and the trade deficit widened.
``The U.S. economy is likely to realize a soft landing and to move toward sustainable growth,'' the central bank said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Mayumi Otsuma in Tokyo at at
[email protected] .
Last Updated: October 31, 2006 02:21 EST
