TBOND-BUND-EUROSTOX-FIBMERD fine del capitalismo(V.M.98anni)
- Creatore Discussione dan24
- Data di Inizio
creeeeeedo
masgui
Forumer storico
dan24 ha scritto:
riterrei cruciali i permessi edilizi e i nuovi cantieri. Si gioca tutto li. Oramai scontano un rallentamento ma non un crollo. Un rallenatmento del settore immobiliare è asupicabile e l'effetto reddito sui consumi è dilatato nel tempo e controllabile. Un crollo no.
Sull'inflazione alla produzione non credo ci siano sorprese.
Cannoni puntati alle 14.30. se riesco faccio il canaletto di ordini condizionati short/long.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Oggi il giappone non ha alzato ma i commento susseguenti sono stati preoccupanti in chiave rallentamento macro... la reazione c'è stata sebbene permetta ai carry di ricostituirsi (a favore dei bond?).
Se oggi i dati sull'immobiliare USA sono in rallentamento si potrebbe ripresentare lo spettro deflattivo
Su quei dati deciderò il da farsi sulle posizioni aperte....
By Yuzo Saeki
TOKYO, Dec 19 (Reuters) - Japan's goal of defeating deflation by the end of the current fiscal year next March was thrown into doubt on Tuesday when the government lowered its estimate of price trends.
In its annual growth projections, the government said the GDP deflator, one of broadest measures of price trends that is used to gauge the gap between nominal and real growth figures, would fall 0.4 percent in the year.
In July the government had projected a 0.1 percent rise.
For the next fiscal year, the government expects the GDP deflator to rise 0.2 percent, which would be the first increase since fiscal 1997/98.
"In effect, the latest report says the government has given up pulling the economy out of deflation in the current fiscal year," said Yasunari Ueno, chief market economist at Mizuho Securities.
Whether or when the government would declare an end to Japan's long era of deflation was once a focus in financial markets, as traders thought such an announcement could make the central bank more comfortable about raising rates.
But after the BOJ ended its zero-rate policy and raised the overnight call rate to 0.25 percent in July, it has become less important to market participants.
Still, it has an symbolic importance for policymakers who have sought victory over deflation in recent years.
Some economists said a possible slowdown in the economy could further delay the timing of the government's declaration of the end of deflation.
"It is still uncertain that the GDP deflator will be clearly in positive territory next year, as is the case with the output gap," said Takahide Kiuchi, senior economist at Nomura Securities.
He said a temporary stall in the economic recovery due mainly to a slowdown in overseas economies would put downward pressure on prices, making it difficult to make a judgment on deflation.
GDP deflator is one of four key indicators that the government analyses to determine an end to deflation.
Other indicators include consumer prices, output gap and unit labour costs.
As part of its growth estimates, the government said the consumer price index would likely rise rise 0.3 percent in fiscal 2006/07 and 0.5 percent in fiscal 2007/08.
Economics Minister Hiroko Ota reiterated on Tuesday that an end of deflation is in sight but added that more analysis was needed to confirm that the world's second-largest economy was no longer at risk of falling back into deflation.
We have not changed our view that the end of deflation is in sight," Ota told a news conference.
"But since the outlook for the GDP deflator in the current fiscal year is in minus, we need to be cautious about chances of a worsening in deflation," she added.
Asked if she would still seek to declare an end to deflation this fiscal year, Ota said she would like to watch developments in price indicators for a bit longer.
Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuhisa Shiozaki also reiterated that the government needs to look at various economic indicators in determining whether Japan has achieved the end of deflation.
Recent price indicators show inflation is still tame.
Core consumer prices, which exclude volatile fresh food costs, rose 0.1 percent in October from a year earlier, government data showed earlier this month.
A research report by a government official showed last week that Japan's "output gap", a measure of the supply-demand balance in the economy, was revised down to minus 0.1 percent in July-September from an earlier estimate of plus 0.4 percent.
The change in unit labour costs, derived by dividing nominal employee compensation by real GDP, was revised up to a year-on-year fall of 0.3 percent from a fall of 1.4 percent.
Se oggi i dati sull'immobiliare USA sono in rallentamento si potrebbe ripresentare lo spettro deflattivo
Su quei dati deciderò il da farsi sulle posizioni aperte....
By Yuzo Saeki
TOKYO, Dec 19 (Reuters) - Japan's goal of defeating deflation by the end of the current fiscal year next March was thrown into doubt on Tuesday when the government lowered its estimate of price trends.
In its annual growth projections, the government said the GDP deflator, one of broadest measures of price trends that is used to gauge the gap between nominal and real growth figures, would fall 0.4 percent in the year.
In July the government had projected a 0.1 percent rise.
For the next fiscal year, the government expects the GDP deflator to rise 0.2 percent, which would be the first increase since fiscal 1997/98.
"In effect, the latest report says the government has given up pulling the economy out of deflation in the current fiscal year," said Yasunari Ueno, chief market economist at Mizuho Securities.
Whether or when the government would declare an end to Japan's long era of deflation was once a focus in financial markets, as traders thought such an announcement could make the central bank more comfortable about raising rates.
But after the BOJ ended its zero-rate policy and raised the overnight call rate to 0.25 percent in July, it has become less important to market participants.
Still, it has an symbolic importance for policymakers who have sought victory over deflation in recent years.
Some economists said a possible slowdown in the economy could further delay the timing of the government's declaration of the end of deflation.
"It is still uncertain that the GDP deflator will be clearly in positive territory next year, as is the case with the output gap," said Takahide Kiuchi, senior economist at Nomura Securities.
He said a temporary stall in the economic recovery due mainly to a slowdown in overseas economies would put downward pressure on prices, making it difficult to make a judgment on deflation.
GDP deflator is one of four key indicators that the government analyses to determine an end to deflation.
Other indicators include consumer prices, output gap and unit labour costs.
As part of its growth estimates, the government said the consumer price index would likely rise rise 0.3 percent in fiscal 2006/07 and 0.5 percent in fiscal 2007/08.
Economics Minister Hiroko Ota reiterated on Tuesday that an end of deflation is in sight but added that more analysis was needed to confirm that the world's second-largest economy was no longer at risk of falling back into deflation.
We have not changed our view that the end of deflation is in sight," Ota told a news conference.
"But since the outlook for the GDP deflator in the current fiscal year is in minus, we need to be cautious about chances of a worsening in deflation," she added.
Asked if she would still seek to declare an end to deflation this fiscal year, Ota said she would like to watch developments in price indicators for a bit longer.
Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuhisa Shiozaki also reiterated that the government needs to look at various economic indicators in determining whether Japan has achieved the end of deflation.
Recent price indicators show inflation is still tame.
Core consumer prices, which exclude volatile fresh food costs, rose 0.1 percent in October from a year earlier, government data showed earlier this month.
A research report by a government official showed last week that Japan's "output gap", a measure of the supply-demand balance in the economy, was revised down to minus 0.1 percent in July-September from an earlier estimate of plus 0.4 percent.
The change in unit labour costs, derived by dividing nominal employee compensation by real GDP, was revised up to a year-on-year fall of 0.3 percent from a fall of 1.4 percent.
dan24
Forumer storico
f4f ha scritto:
già già.....per ora solo storno tecnico....vediamo se si trasforma in qualcosa di più.....l'eurostox intanto è rientrato nel canale laterale....con resistenza di nuovo a 4159/57 e supporti primi 4120 (bucato intraday per ora) e area 4080.
lateralone tra 3959/4000 e 4150? vedremo....la mia strategia...(se riesco a mantenerla in piedi)...è quella di portarne avanti sempre due contratti...aspettando un vero storno di 300/400 punti
f4f
翠鸟科
voilà le marchè libre:
libertè egalitè taroccabiltè
nell'ipotesi di gestione dei dati, difficile che facciano andare il panetùn di traverso al mercato
più facile il trading-range
la bocca l'hanno pulita dando lo 'hiccup' della vignetta di ieri con l'orsetto
discesa di 41450 41050 in un giorno
libertè egalitè taroccabiltè
nell'ipotesi di gestione dei dati, difficile che facciano andare il panetùn di traverso al mercato
più facile il trading-range
la bocca l'hanno pulita dando lo 'hiccup' della vignetta di ieri con l'orsetto
discesa di 41450 41050 in un giorno
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
masgui ha scritto:riterrei cruciali i permessi edilizi e i nuovi cantieri. Si gioca tutto li. Oramai scontano un rallentamento ma non un crollo. Un rallenatmento del settore immobiliare è asupicabile e l'effetto reddito sui consumi è dilatato nel tempo e controllabile. Un crollo no.
Sull'inflazione alla produzione non credo ci siano sorprese.
Cannoni puntati alle 14.30. se riesco faccio il canaletto di ordini condizionati short/long.
Visto la mossa Giapponese quel dato diventa molto importante...
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