Treasuries Little Changed After Housing, Producer Prices Rise
By Deborah Finestone and Michael McDonald
Dec. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries were little changed after government reports showed housing permits declined in November and wholesale prices rose the most in more than three decades.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year note is near the highest in a month, as traders doubt the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates next quarter to keep the economy from slumping.
``Growth may be moving better than the market expected but the Fed isn't concerned,'' said Andy Richman, who oversees $8 billion in fixed-income assets as a strategist for SunTrust Bank's personal asset management division in West Palm Beach, Florida. ``People are saying the Fed is on pause, so not much really has changed from these numbers.''
The benchmark 10-year note yield was little changed at 4.58 percent at 10:41 a.m. in New York, according to New York-based broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. It rose as high as 4.62 percent after the release, the highest since Nov. 17. The price of the 4 5/8 percent note due in November 2016 was unchanged at 100 10/32.
Building permits fell 3 percent to a 1.506 million pace, the lowest since December 1997, suggesting weakness in home construction will persist in the new year.
``Permits are the more leading indicators and have seen a significant decline from the third quarter,'' said William O'Donnell, head of interest-rate strategy in Stamford, Connecticut, at UBS Securities LLC, one of the 22 primary government securities dealers that trade with the Fed. ``The economy is expected to stay weak. We could get a rate cut in the first half of next year, which is good for bonds.''
Permits averaged a 1.71 million rate from July through September.
Housing Downturn
Treasuries fell immediately after the report, which said builders broke ground on new dwellings at an annual rate of 1.588 million units last month, above October's 1.488 million rate that was the lowest since 2000, the Commerce Department said. The median forecast of economists polled by Bloomberg was for a 1.54 million rate.
`` I don't believe we've seen the end of the housing downturn,'' said Sharon Stark, chief fixed-income strategist at Stifel Nicolaus & Co. in Baltimore. ``Any kind of sell off should be seen as an opportunity for investors to add yield that they will probably not have a chance to get next year.''
Ten-year note yields may fall to 4.20 percent next year, she said.
Wholesale Prices
Prices paid to U.S. producers rose in November by the most since 1974, led by rebounds in the costs of energy and light trucks. Prices excluding food and energy increased more than forecast.
The 2 percent gain in the producer price index was more than forecast and followed a 1.6 percent decrease in October, the Labor Department said. Excluding food and energy, the so-called core rate rose 1.3 percent last month, the most since July 1980, after falling 0.9 percent.
The gain in wholesale prices partly explains the Fed maintains the view that inflation risks remain a threat to the economic expansion. A report last week showed consumer prices held steady last month, indicating businesses are having limited success passing on higher materials costs.
``These are big numbers,'' said Ian Lyngen, an interest-rate strategist at primary dealer RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut. ``There has been a bit of a grind higher in yields towards the end of the year.''
Interest-rate futures contracts show traders see about a 18 percent chance Fed policy makers will cut its benchmark rate by quarter-percentage point by April, compared with 14 percent odds yesterday.
The Fed maintained its 5.25 percent target rate for overnight loans between banks for a fourth consecutive meeting last week, after raising it 17 times since June 2004.