Fernando'S
Forumer storico
giomf ha scritto:
quando alza il primo dell'anno è sempre un ottimo segno!!
...soprattutto considerando la notte di bagordi
TBOND-BUND-EUROSTOX-FIBMERD fine del capitalismo(V.M.98anni)
- Creatore Discussione dan24
- Data di Inizio
quando alza il primo dell'anno è sempre un ottimo segno!!
...soprattutto considerando la notte di bagordi
quicksilver
Forumer storico
gipa69 ha scritto:
Attento ai doppi sensi ....
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
2. Thailand
The Thailand SET Index, Thailand's benchmark stock index, plunged 15 percent overnight after the country imposed currency controls on international investors, according to Bloomberg.
Indexes in Hungary, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Poland and Turkey all lost more than 1 percent as well as the selling spread.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has rallied 33 percent since reaching its low for the year on June 13.
The move on the Thai Set Index, however, (see chart below) wipes out two full years' worth of gains, taking the index to its lowest level since September 2004.
Meanwhile, emerging-market bonds snapped two days of gains, with the average spread on a basket of developing-country debt widening two basis points to 179 basis points more than U.S. Treasury notes, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co's EMBI+ Index, Bloomberg said.
That SET Index with S&P 500 comparison in red
. Going to Bat for the Baht
On Monday Thailand's regulators required banks to lock up 30 percent of new foreign exchange deposits for a year to curb currency speculation.
Overseas investors buying Thai baht today will only be able to invest 70 percent of what they transfer, and only recoup all of their funds if they keep the money in Thailand for more than a year, a central bank official said.
The baht had risen about 16 percent this year to a nine- year high.
Now, why would Thailand's central bank take this step?
Well, first off the surging currency was crushing exporters. Thai Union Frozen Products Pcl, apparently the world's second-biggest tuna canner according to Bloomberg, last month asked the central bank to stem baht gains, saying the upward pressure on the currency is undermining their competitiveness.
Second, the move is designed to rein in speculation in that country.
The pace of net investment inflows had increased to $950 million in the first week of December from $300 million per week in November and a total of $13 billion in the first 10 months of the year, according to the Associated Press.
The net result has been a one-way bet on the direction of the baht against the dollar.
4. Asian Financial Crisis II?
Financial media outlets this morning noted the ripple effects of the Thai meltdown as markets across Southeast Asia, from Manila, to Jakarta, Singapore and Kuala Lumpur each fell anywhere from 2% to 3%. Asian Financial Crisis II?
In 1997 the so-called "East Asian Financial Crisis" spread throughout the world affecting markets from Brazil to Russian and the U.S.
Is this part II?
According to the Wall Street Journal this morning, the events that triggered the Thailand policy shift were fundamentally different from those surrounding the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis, when countries faced weakening currencies – not strengthening ones.
However, this ignores the psychological aspects of the two selloffs and the herding behavior surrounding extreme selling (and buying) events.
Moreover, investors have been trained to downplay the risk of emerging markets in recent years.
5. Retreat!!! Retreat!!! Retreat!!!
You know that stuff we said yesterday about currency controls and locking up 30% of new foreign-currency deposits for a year, Thailand's central banks asked Tuesday? We were kidding about that.
Thailand has decided to remove currency controls imposed on international investors in the stock market after the benchmark index plunged the most in 16 years today, the head of the country's stock exchange said.
The government agreed to remove a requirement that banks lock up 30 percent of new foreign-currency deposits for a year, Patareeya Benjapolchai, president of the Stock Exchange of Thailand, told reporters after meeting with Finance Ministry and Bank of Thailand officials, Bloomberg said.
Barely three hours earlier, XFN-Asia reported that Thailand's Finance Minister said, "The government will not reconsider the policy; let the market take (its) course and it will adjust itself."
The Finance Minister added that the move would only affect brokers and short-term currency speculators.
We now return you to your regularly scheduled emerging markets selloff.
6. Carry On, Carry Traders
The Bank of Japan concluded their two-day policy meeting earlier today and the nine members voted unanimously to leave the overnight call rate target at 0.25%, according to XFN-Asia.
Although the move was widely expected, what was not expected was the downgrade of the economy due to weakness in consumer prices and private consumption.
In its economic report for December, the central bank stood by its previous overall assessment of the economy but downgraded its view on private consumption.
As recently as last month the BoJ had said it 'has been on an increasing trend.'
However, Bank of Japan governor Toshihiko Fukui today said the consumer price index and private consumption have recently been weaker than the central bank had thought a few months earlier, and that is what convinced the BoJ to avoid raising interest rates.
The report of weaker-than-expected pricing indexes and consumption now put back into play the timing of further interest rate increases by the BoJ.
Most had expected an additional rate increase in the first quarter of 2007.
And now? Well, carry on, carry traders.
7. Producer Price Index Spikes: Is This Inflation? No.
The producer price index rose 2% in November, the biggest rise in 32 years, the Labor Department said.
Excluding food and energy, the so-called core rate rose 1.3 percent last month, the most since July 1980, after falling 0.9 percent last month, Bloomberg reported.
Wow, surely this must be inflation, right? Let's take a look.
Putting on our protective data sifting gloves, we find that objects in headlines may be farther away than they appear.
Much farther away.
Light trucks prices came in +13.7% over October's prices.
Cars were up 2.2%.
But if you strip out the transportation equipment category there was virtually NO producer pricing power last month.
In fact, the Core Intermediate Price Index actually FELL 0.3% last month. (See highlighted section below.)
The big problem with producer cost increases is that in order for them to become consumer inflation, the costs must be "passed through."
OK, so are businesses finally able to pass costs through to customers?
According to Bloomberg, Steel Dynamics (STLF) last week cut its fourth-quarter profit forecast after a greater-than- expected drop in selling prices for flat-rolled steel and fewer orders.
Lower prices also led Nucor (NUE) to reduce its profit forecast the same week.
And then there are the homebuilders.
Ok, but we're not a manufacturing based economy anymore. Surely service providers are where the real demand-led inflation will show up, right?
One would think. But according to the BLS, only commercial banking, securities brokerages, savings institutions, and television broadcasting received higher prices in November.
By contrast, lower prices were paid to the industries for lessors of nonresidential buildings (except miniwarehouses), couriers, investment banking and securities dealing, wired telecommunications carriers, general medical and surgical hospitals, and line-haul railroads.
Yes, Virginia, there IS stagflation.
And stagflation is simply the transition we are now living through, a transition from the recent cyclical upturn in inflation back to secular deflation.
The Thailand SET Index, Thailand's benchmark stock index, plunged 15 percent overnight after the country imposed currency controls on international investors, according to Bloomberg.
Indexes in Hungary, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Poland and Turkey all lost more than 1 percent as well as the selling spread.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has rallied 33 percent since reaching its low for the year on June 13.
The move on the Thai Set Index, however, (see chart below) wipes out two full years' worth of gains, taking the index to its lowest level since September 2004.
Meanwhile, emerging-market bonds snapped two days of gains, with the average spread on a basket of developing-country debt widening two basis points to 179 basis points more than U.S. Treasury notes, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co's EMBI+ Index, Bloomberg said.
That SET Index with S&P 500 comparison in red
. Going to Bat for the Baht
On Monday Thailand's regulators required banks to lock up 30 percent of new foreign exchange deposits for a year to curb currency speculation.
Overseas investors buying Thai baht today will only be able to invest 70 percent of what they transfer, and only recoup all of their funds if they keep the money in Thailand for more than a year, a central bank official said.
The baht had risen about 16 percent this year to a nine- year high.
Now, why would Thailand's central bank take this step?
Well, first off the surging currency was crushing exporters. Thai Union Frozen Products Pcl, apparently the world's second-biggest tuna canner according to Bloomberg, last month asked the central bank to stem baht gains, saying the upward pressure on the currency is undermining their competitiveness.
Second, the move is designed to rein in speculation in that country.
The pace of net investment inflows had increased to $950 million in the first week of December from $300 million per week in November and a total of $13 billion in the first 10 months of the year, according to the Associated Press.
The net result has been a one-way bet on the direction of the baht against the dollar.
4. Asian Financial Crisis II?
Financial media outlets this morning noted the ripple effects of the Thai meltdown as markets across Southeast Asia, from Manila, to Jakarta, Singapore and Kuala Lumpur each fell anywhere from 2% to 3%. Asian Financial Crisis II?
In 1997 the so-called "East Asian Financial Crisis" spread throughout the world affecting markets from Brazil to Russian and the U.S.
Is this part II?
According to the Wall Street Journal this morning, the events that triggered the Thailand policy shift were fundamentally different from those surrounding the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis, when countries faced weakening currencies – not strengthening ones.
However, this ignores the psychological aspects of the two selloffs and the herding behavior surrounding extreme selling (and buying) events.
Moreover, investors have been trained to downplay the risk of emerging markets in recent years.
5. Retreat!!! Retreat!!! Retreat!!!
You know that stuff we said yesterday about currency controls and locking up 30% of new foreign-currency deposits for a year, Thailand's central banks asked Tuesday? We were kidding about that.
Thailand has decided to remove currency controls imposed on international investors in the stock market after the benchmark index plunged the most in 16 years today, the head of the country's stock exchange said.
The government agreed to remove a requirement that banks lock up 30 percent of new foreign-currency deposits for a year, Patareeya Benjapolchai, president of the Stock Exchange of Thailand, told reporters after meeting with Finance Ministry and Bank of Thailand officials, Bloomberg said.
Barely three hours earlier, XFN-Asia reported that Thailand's Finance Minister said, "The government will not reconsider the policy; let the market take (its) course and it will adjust itself."
The Finance Minister added that the move would only affect brokers and short-term currency speculators.
We now return you to your regularly scheduled emerging markets selloff.
6. Carry On, Carry Traders
The Bank of Japan concluded their two-day policy meeting earlier today and the nine members voted unanimously to leave the overnight call rate target at 0.25%, according to XFN-Asia.
Although the move was widely expected, what was not expected was the downgrade of the economy due to weakness in consumer prices and private consumption.
In its economic report for December, the central bank stood by its previous overall assessment of the economy but downgraded its view on private consumption.
As recently as last month the BoJ had said it 'has been on an increasing trend.'
However, Bank of Japan governor Toshihiko Fukui today said the consumer price index and private consumption have recently been weaker than the central bank had thought a few months earlier, and that is what convinced the BoJ to avoid raising interest rates.
The report of weaker-than-expected pricing indexes and consumption now put back into play the timing of further interest rate increases by the BoJ.
Most had expected an additional rate increase in the first quarter of 2007.
And now? Well, carry on, carry traders.
7. Producer Price Index Spikes: Is This Inflation? No.
The producer price index rose 2% in November, the biggest rise in 32 years, the Labor Department said.
Excluding food and energy, the so-called core rate rose 1.3 percent last month, the most since July 1980, after falling 0.9 percent last month, Bloomberg reported.
Wow, surely this must be inflation, right? Let's take a look.
Putting on our protective data sifting gloves, we find that objects in headlines may be farther away than they appear.
Much farther away.
Light trucks prices came in +13.7% over October's prices.
Cars were up 2.2%.
But if you strip out the transportation equipment category there was virtually NO producer pricing power last month.
In fact, the Core Intermediate Price Index actually FELL 0.3% last month. (See highlighted section below.)
The big problem with producer cost increases is that in order for them to become consumer inflation, the costs must be "passed through."
OK, so are businesses finally able to pass costs through to customers?
According to Bloomberg, Steel Dynamics (STLF) last week cut its fourth-quarter profit forecast after a greater-than- expected drop in selling prices for flat-rolled steel and fewer orders.
Lower prices also led Nucor (NUE) to reduce its profit forecast the same week.
And then there are the homebuilders.
Ok, but we're not a manufacturing based economy anymore. Surely service providers are where the real demand-led inflation will show up, right?
One would think. But according to the BLS, only commercial banking, securities brokerages, savings institutions, and television broadcasting received higher prices in November.
By contrast, lower prices were paid to the industries for lessors of nonresidential buildings (except miniwarehouses), couriers, investment banking and securities dealing, wired telecommunications carriers, general medical and surgical hospitals, and line-haul railroads.
Yes, Virginia, there IS stagflation.
And stagflation is simply the transition we are now living through, a transition from the recent cyclical upturn in inflation back to secular deflation.
dan24
Forumer storico
spmib preciso da fare schifo ritesta l'ex max relativo a 41030 confermando (pare) la bontà del nuovo movimento impulsivo ed in caso di rottura dei 41500 ha come tp area 42000/42100 sulla parte alta del canale rialzista. aggiungerei sti quazzi....
solo la rottura dei 41000 e successivi 40450 con step intermedio a 40800 farebbero pensare ad una bulltrap e formazione di un top di periodo. rimane lo stress sul settimanale e vola ridotta....su tutti i mercati. Vediamo se scoppia sta polveriera...ma non credo nel brevissimo. più probabile nel primo trimestre 2007....anche se oramai continuo a leggere che gli "analisti" si attendono una crescita a due cifre anche per il 2007 (fanatici estremisti longhisti
)
solo la rottura dei 41000 e successivi 40450 con step intermedio a 40800 farebbero pensare ad una bulltrap e formazione di un top di periodo. rimane lo stress sul settimanale e vola ridotta....su tutti i mercati. Vediamo se scoppia sta polveriera...ma non credo nel brevissimo. più probabile nel primo trimestre 2007....anche se oramai continuo a leggere che gli "analisti" si attendono una crescita a due cifre anche per il 2007 (fanatici estremisti longhisti
)
dan24
Forumer storico
visti i close Usa...e il nikkey che chiude a +1,40% sfonnnando i 17000...ci attende un'altra giornata di passion for the shorters.....diciamo pure un bagno di sangue.... 
ma la mia strategia multitrading ad quazzum....mi porterò a ridare un eurostrunz in area max forse...se no attendo ancora più su e ne dò due
ma la mia strategia multitrading ad quazzum....mi porterò a ridare un eurostrunz in area max forse...se no attendo ancora più su e ne dò due 
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