TBOND-BUND-EUROSTOX-FIBMERD fine del capitalismo(V.M.98anni)
- Creatore Discussione dan24
- Data di Inizio
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
SPX market:
The Bigger time frames rule the smaller time frames. In other words, if a bearish signal shows up on a
weekly chart then that signal has more importance then a signal that shows up on a daily chart. Below
is the Weekly chart of the SPX. Last week a bearish Candlestick pattern called a “Doji” appeared.
“Doji” pattern have a good history at calling tops. Tomorrow if the SPX close near current levels, it will
form a bearish candlestick pattern called a “Hanging Man” which is another form of a “Doji” pattern.
We have found when three bearish pattern shows up in a row the signal becomes much stronger.
Therefore if another bearish candlestick pattern shows up next week, it would strength the sign for a top.
We are short the SPX at 1381.95.
Nasdaq Market:
Above is the Nasdaq dating back for ten months. The bottom window in the Nasdaq Chart above is the
“Price Relative to SPX” ratio. When the Nasdaq is outperforming the SPX this ratio is rising and bullish
for the short term on both markets. A bearish signal will be triggered when this ratio closes below the
red uptrend line. It is very close in doing that now. The Nasdaq traded above the April highs in
November. If the Nasdaq is unable to hold above the April highs then a bearish “Upthrust” will develop
and a bearish sign and implies the top has been seen. So far the Nasdaq has not close below the April
highs but there are other indicators suggesting the Nasdaq is at a top like the “55 DMA ARMS”,
McClellan Summation index and volume studies. Tops in the market take longer to develop then
bottoms so patience is needed. We are looking for a significant decline to start soon that may take the
Nasdaq down to 1750 range which is near 29% lower then current levels. We are holding a ½ short
position on the Nasdaq. We should end up with a full short position before next month ends.
Signals are provided as general information only and are not investment recommendations. You are responsible for your own investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Opinions are based on historical research and data believed reliable, there is no guarantee results will be profitable. Not responsible for errors or omissions. I may invest in the vehicles mentioned above. Copyright 1996-2005.
The Bigger time frames rule the smaller time frames. In other words, if a bearish signal shows up on a
weekly chart then that signal has more importance then a signal that shows up on a daily chart. Below
is the Weekly chart of the SPX. Last week a bearish Candlestick pattern called a “Doji” appeared.
“Doji” pattern have a good history at calling tops. Tomorrow if the SPX close near current levels, it will
form a bearish candlestick pattern called a “Hanging Man” which is another form of a “Doji” pattern.
We have found when three bearish pattern shows up in a row the signal becomes much stronger.
Therefore if another bearish candlestick pattern shows up next week, it would strength the sign for a top.
We are short the SPX at 1381.95.
Nasdaq Market:
Above is the Nasdaq dating back for ten months. The bottom window in the Nasdaq Chart above is the
“Price Relative to SPX” ratio. When the Nasdaq is outperforming the SPX this ratio is rising and bullish
for the short term on both markets. A bearish signal will be triggered when this ratio closes below the
red uptrend line. It is very close in doing that now. The Nasdaq traded above the April highs in
November. If the Nasdaq is unable to hold above the April highs then a bearish “Upthrust” will develop
and a bearish sign and implies the top has been seen. So far the Nasdaq has not close below the April
highs but there are other indicators suggesting the Nasdaq is at a top like the “55 DMA ARMS”,
McClellan Summation index and volume studies. Tops in the market take longer to develop then
bottoms so patience is needed. We are looking for a significant decline to start soon that may take the
Nasdaq down to 1750 range which is near 29% lower then current levels. We are holding a ½ short
position on the Nasdaq. We should end up with a full short position before next month ends.
Signals are provided as general information only and are not investment recommendations. You are responsible for your own investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Opinions are based on historical research and data believed reliable, there is no guarantee results will be profitable. Not responsible for errors or omissions. I may invest in the vehicles mentioned above. Copyright 1996-2005.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
According to P.Q.Wall research, October 8 through 10,2002 was the end of a 5,5 year Kitchin cycle. It was the low for the DJIA, the NASDAQ Composite Index, the NASDAQ 100 and the New York Composite Index.
On December 02, 2005, ELLIOTT today had this to say:
A bullish alternate count, points to 5863, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the decline from the year 2000. Waves 1,2,3 and 4 off the August 2004 low can be counted as a bullish 1-2, (i)-(ii), too, suggesting a super bullish wave 3 of 5 of (c) lies ahead. If so, (we are dealing with possibilities) such a target could be achieved in the first quarter of 2006. For the time being, we're watching the levels given by the Gann lines at 4800, 4600 and 4100.
So far, this was a good description of what has been developing. From an Elliott standpoint, the big news is that the DAX has just traced out five waves up from the March 2003 low, a clear cut impulse wave. From a wave perspective, the upper parallel trend channel line points to much higher prices, probably into the 6500s area, depending on the time window. Under the preferred interpretation, which views the pattern as a five-wave structure, wave (1) gained 90%, wave (3) gained 71%. Thus, wave (5) now underway should be shorter than wave (3) since wave three "is often the longest and never the shortest of the three impulse waves in a five-wave sequence." (EWP,p.53).
In markets, progress ultimately takes the form of five waves of a specific structure. Waves 1, 3 and 5 actually effect the directional movement. Waves 2 and 4 are countertrend interruptions. The two interruptions are apparently a requisite for overall directional movement to occur. Elliott noted three consistent aspects of the five-wave form. They are: Wave two never moves beyond the start of wave one, wave three is never the shortest wave, and wave four never enters the price territory of wave one. The stock market is always somewhere in the five-wave pattern at the largest degree of trend. Because the five-wave pattern is the overriding form of
market progress, all other patterns are subsumed by it. In the case of the DAX, the five pattern is clearly visible. The only question is, whether its wave five of large degree or wave A as part of a much bigger corrective formation.
The May to June/July swan is best counted as wave four and the fact that the correction displayed a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of wave (3) supports the analysis. Further evidence for a wave four triangle can be gleaned from the fact, that at the end of the triangle, wave (4) corrected 23.6% which is 0.618 of 38.2%. The steady upward move since August confirms the action following a triangle, in fact R.N.Elliott called it a "thrust." More often than not, fifth waves tend to reach the upper parallel line of an Elliott trend channel which in the case of the DAX is the area of 6800+ and that's also the area of a 0.786 Fibonacci retracement of the decline 8136 to 2188. This doesn't mean the DAX has to go to that level. As the chart reveals, five waves up from the July lows can be counted as complete or nearly so indicating the market may have reached an important juncture.
Going all the way back to October/December 1974, important lows (in the Dow) occurred in March 1978, September 1981, July 1984, October 1987, January 1991, April 1994 and October 1997. Each is separated by 3 years plus 3-6 months, the only exception being the 1984 low, which came five months early. Since 1990, each 3.3 year cycle correction has been outrageously shallow, which has thrown us off the track three times. It bottomed again on schedule at the October 1997 low. The 1997 bottom brought the infamous market meltdown in Asia. Its next scheduled bottom was September 2001right in time with the terrorist attack against the WTC in New York. In August 2004 the cycle was relative mild and the leap out of the bottom produced a very strong up move supporting the fact that wave (3) in the DAX was underway. If this cycle progresses accordingly the next
major cycle low is expected in late 2007. When larger cycles are down (as in this case the 5.5 year Kitchen), smaller cycles often top early, and when they do, they end in a crash, as in 1929 and 1987.
Summary: Elliott waves, momentum, sentiment indicators and cycles indicate that the 3.3. year cycle is being overwhelmed by bearish forces right now. As the chart reveals, the 5.5 year Kitchen cycle is declining sharply against an upward bias in the market and a drop larger than the April-June 2006 correction strongly suggests, that the DAX has reached a top of major proportion. It would therefore constitute a warning that larger downward forces have gained the upper hand.
Labeling the low of March 2003 as Cycle wave A the up move since than should be Cycle wave B. Within Cycle wave B
the first Elliott structure, namely Primary wave [a] is nearly complete. Cycle analysis suggests that probably in the third quarter of 2007 a major cycle low in due (Primary wave ?). If so, Primary wave [c] is due to complete an upward zigzag of Cycle degree.
It is imperative to understand that certainty about the probabilities is not the same as certainty about one specific outcome. Under no circumstance does anyone ever know exactly what the market is going to do. Since Elliott wave analysis is based upon price patterns, a pattern identified as having completed is either over, or it isn't. If the market changes direction, the analyst has caught the turn. If the market moves beyond what the apparently completed pattern would have allowed, the position is wrong. Although there are many guidelines to successful forecasting, it is rarely given to the analyst in advance what the precise time forecast for an ongoing pattern juncture can be made successfully, although such is usually reserved for the latter stages of a developing pattern. With regard to forecasting price patterns for trends, the Wave Principle is the only method of analysis which can occasionally yield stunning results.
On December 02, 2005, ELLIOTT today had this to say:
A bullish alternate count, points to 5863, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the decline from the year 2000. Waves 1,2,3 and 4 off the August 2004 low can be counted as a bullish 1-2, (i)-(ii), too, suggesting a super bullish wave 3 of 5 of (c) lies ahead. If so, (we are dealing with possibilities) such a target could be achieved in the first quarter of 2006. For the time being, we're watching the levels given by the Gann lines at 4800, 4600 and 4100.
So far, this was a good description of what has been developing. From an Elliott standpoint, the big news is that the DAX has just traced out five waves up from the March 2003 low, a clear cut impulse wave. From a wave perspective, the upper parallel trend channel line points to much higher prices, probably into the 6500s area, depending on the time window. Under the preferred interpretation, which views the pattern as a five-wave structure, wave (1) gained 90%, wave (3) gained 71%. Thus, wave (5) now underway should be shorter than wave (3) since wave three "is often the longest and never the shortest of the three impulse waves in a five-wave sequence." (EWP,p.53).
In markets, progress ultimately takes the form of five waves of a specific structure. Waves 1, 3 and 5 actually effect the directional movement. Waves 2 and 4 are countertrend interruptions. The two interruptions are apparently a requisite for overall directional movement to occur. Elliott noted three consistent aspects of the five-wave form. They are: Wave two never moves beyond the start of wave one, wave three is never the shortest wave, and wave four never enters the price territory of wave one. The stock market is always somewhere in the five-wave pattern at the largest degree of trend. Because the five-wave pattern is the overriding form of
market progress, all other patterns are subsumed by it. In the case of the DAX, the five pattern is clearly visible. The only question is, whether its wave five of large degree or wave A as part of a much bigger corrective formation.
The May to June/July swan is best counted as wave four and the fact that the correction displayed a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of wave (3) supports the analysis. Further evidence for a wave four triangle can be gleaned from the fact, that at the end of the triangle, wave (4) corrected 23.6% which is 0.618 of 38.2%. The steady upward move since August confirms the action following a triangle, in fact R.N.Elliott called it a "thrust." More often than not, fifth waves tend to reach the upper parallel line of an Elliott trend channel which in the case of the DAX is the area of 6800+ and that's also the area of a 0.786 Fibonacci retracement of the decline 8136 to 2188. This doesn't mean the DAX has to go to that level. As the chart reveals, five waves up from the July lows can be counted as complete or nearly so indicating the market may have reached an important juncture.
Going all the way back to October/December 1974, important lows (in the Dow) occurred in March 1978, September 1981, July 1984, October 1987, January 1991, April 1994 and October 1997. Each is separated by 3 years plus 3-6 months, the only exception being the 1984 low, which came five months early. Since 1990, each 3.3 year cycle correction has been outrageously shallow, which has thrown us off the track three times. It bottomed again on schedule at the October 1997 low. The 1997 bottom brought the infamous market meltdown in Asia. Its next scheduled bottom was September 2001right in time with the terrorist attack against the WTC in New York. In August 2004 the cycle was relative mild and the leap out of the bottom produced a very strong up move supporting the fact that wave (3) in the DAX was underway. If this cycle progresses accordingly the next
major cycle low is expected in late 2007. When larger cycles are down (as in this case the 5.5 year Kitchen), smaller cycles often top early, and when they do, they end in a crash, as in 1929 and 1987.
Summary: Elliott waves, momentum, sentiment indicators and cycles indicate that the 3.3. year cycle is being overwhelmed by bearish forces right now. As the chart reveals, the 5.5 year Kitchen cycle is declining sharply against an upward bias in the market and a drop larger than the April-June 2006 correction strongly suggests, that the DAX has reached a top of major proportion. It would therefore constitute a warning that larger downward forces have gained the upper hand.
Labeling the low of March 2003 as Cycle wave A the up move since than should be Cycle wave B. Within Cycle wave B
the first Elliott structure, namely Primary wave [a] is nearly complete. Cycle analysis suggests that probably in the third quarter of 2007 a major cycle low in due (Primary wave ?). If so, Primary wave [c] is due to complete an upward zigzag of Cycle degree.
It is imperative to understand that certainty about the probabilities is not the same as certainty about one specific outcome. Under no circumstance does anyone ever know exactly what the market is going to do. Since Elliott wave analysis is based upon price patterns, a pattern identified as having completed is either over, or it isn't. If the market changes direction, the analyst has caught the turn. If the market moves beyond what the apparently completed pattern would have allowed, the position is wrong. Although there are many guidelines to successful forecasting, it is rarely given to the analyst in advance what the precise time forecast for an ongoing pattern juncture can be made successfully, although such is usually reserved for the latter stages of a developing pattern. With regard to forecasting price patterns for trends, the Wave Principle is the only method of analysis which can occasionally yield stunning results.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Friday's weaker than expected ISM report drove a curve steepening rally (7.7bps 2s/30s) in treasuries with the 2YR note pushing 4.50% and the 30YR long bond trading at yields not seen since the Treasury brought back the issue in 2/06 at 4.50%. Assuming a relatively normal sloping yield curve, the bond market is now discounting at least 100bps ease (imo) from the Fed. I look at the yield curve as a counter balance to monetary policy. When the Fed is too easy, the bond market tightens through steepening the yield curve. When the Fed is too tight, the bond market eases by flattening or inverting the yield curve. The steepening (short dated outperformed) that we saw on Friday's weak economic data was the first time in a while I can remember as most of the weak data releases have been met with a flattening bias (longer dated outperforming). I believe this was an important statement by the bond market in that traders now sense that a Fed ease is finally around the corner, perhaps by 1st quarter of 2007 which if the bond market starts to remove its 100bp stimulus, could start to see the long end underperform. This steepening could also be necessary to stem the recent sell off in the dollar. Now this all brings me to the chart below from one of our analyst showing a wave count that is looking for a completion of a multi-month A wave off the May low. Since the flight to quality and short squeeze rally back in Sept that surrounded the Amaranth HF blow up the bond contract appears to be tracing out a 5th wave that looks to be near completion. One of the targets from the bond charts a couple of months ago was 114-25 for the top of the A wave. That target was met and exceeded (by 4 ticks) on Friday with the contract settling at 114-20. To me the fact that we are seeing a steepening rally and a chart pattern that looks near complete suggests this could be near a top in bond prices. This top may also be coinciding with a completing 5th wave pattern in the UTIL index, arguably one of the most interest rate sensitive stock market sectors.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
This past week has shown a number of economic reports to have been "less-than-anticpated" in terms of their strength. The forward looking purchasing managers' reports for the Chicago-area and the national ISM groups showed that contraction was taking place in the manufacturing sector. It has been since April-2003 when they were in contraction.
Of course this begs the question as to whether interest rates are headed higher; the Fed has never raised rates with these reports showing contraction. In fact, when we look to the Lehman 20-year plus Bond Fund or TLT for guidance - we find prices are rising, which coincides with yeilds falling. Moreover, and perhaps more importanly - a technically bullish head & shoulders bottom has formed and broken out above neckline resistance at $89. This targets give or take a percent or so around $97. In terms of yield, this would equate to a 10-year yield of 3.8%...the since April-2005. If this is the case and lower yeilds come to pass as we expect; then what does this say of the economy? Is a recession looming? Is the economy simply going to grow with inflation being kept at bay?
These are questions answered in the fullness of time, but we think a recession is a higher probability. Hence, lower yields will materialize. Now...what does this say about the stock market? Our answer: lower...perhaps sharply so, and sooner rather than later given the recent rally.
Good luck and good trading, Richard Rhodes
Of course this begs the question as to whether interest rates are headed higher; the Fed has never raised rates with these reports showing contraction. In fact, when we look to the Lehman 20-year plus Bond Fund or TLT for guidance - we find prices are rising, which coincides with yeilds falling. Moreover, and perhaps more importanly - a technically bullish head & shoulders bottom has formed and broken out above neckline resistance at $89. This targets give or take a percent or so around $97. In terms of yield, this would equate to a 10-year yield of 3.8%...the since April-2005. If this is the case and lower yeilds come to pass as we expect; then what does this say of the economy? Is a recession looming? Is the economy simply going to grow with inflation being kept at bay?
These are questions answered in the fullness of time, but we think a recession is a higher probability. Hence, lower yields will materialize. Now...what does this say about the stock market? Our answer: lower...perhaps sharply so, and sooner rather than later given the recent rally.
Good luck and good trading, Richard Rhodes
Fernando'S
Forumer storico
dan24 ha scritto:
esatto...sò bravo io sò
ho usato il composite del meta; ti permette di prendere il fib e di dividerlo per 10 e di fare la differenza con l'eurostock sui dati EoD, cioè day by day,
avrai una serie di dati sempre giornalieri che puoi graficare come se fosse un indice qualunque
tè capì ?
dan24
Forumer storico
Fernando'S ha scritto:esatto...sò bravo io sò
ho usato il composite del meta; ti permette di prendere il fib e di dividerlo per 10 e di fare la differenza con l'eurostock sui dati EoD, cioè day by day,
avrai una serie di dati sempre giornalieri che puoi graficare come se fosse un indice qualunque
tè capì ?
se puoi dirmi passo passo come fare sarebbe meglio..se hai tempo...anche domani o quando vuoi...
esco a domani
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
La situazione del mercato US
Durante la scorsa settimana la rottura della trendline ascendente dello Spx aveva convinto molti del possibile sviluppo di una correzione di medio degli indici azionari tenuto presente che durante queste sedute di debolezza si erano sviluppate interessanti comportamenti interni ai mercati ed esterni che potevano segnalare una seria pausa correttiva:
1)Debolezza del settore finanziario
2)Forza dell'oro contro le commodity industriali
3)Allargamento della curva sui tassi
4)Debolezza dei mercati del medio oriente
5)Possibile rerating del mercato Giapponese
6)Nuova forza delle commodity
In realtà però, pur rimanendo tutti questi elementi di incertezza il mercato è riuscito con un buon guizzo a recuperare la trendline segnalando, seppure con pericolose divergenze la possibile ripresa del trend rialzista.
Personalmente rimango orientato sulla possibilità che la fase di consolidamento prosegua ancora seppure al momento non sembrerebbe tale da fare eccessivi danni seppure i livelli da monitorare sullo spoore non sono poi cosi' lontani (1377 e 1363).
Sebbene vi sia una certa divergenza tra i vari poll sul sentiment degli investitori i grafici sui fondi Rydex mostrano che gli individuali stanno ancora entrando sui mercati sebbene con cautela ed in particolare proseguono le chiusure delle posizioni bearish.
Sebbene vi sia ancora spazio le posizioni degli individuali si vanno via via più estese.
Le dichiarazioni delle autorità monetarie asiatiche, russe e del medio oriente hanno posto pressioni al dollaro. (collegate probabilmente agli incontri previsti il 14 dicembre tra Bernanke e Paulson e le autorità Cinesi alfine di "preparare" meglio l'incontro)
Su questo si sono innestate la riduzione dello spread tra rendimenti obbligazionari dell'area dollaro rispetto ad altre aree e la situazione macro USA che gli ultimi dati USA mostrano in peggioramento.
I future quotati al CME sui prezzi degli immobili scontano una discesa più marcata dei prezzi nei primi sei mesi del prossimo anno (e questo potrebbe essere effettivamente un problema per i mutui totali) ed i consumi mostrano una chiara divergenza di vendite tra gli store che si rivolgono alla fascia alta (vendite in crescita) e quelli che si rivolgono alla fascia bassa (vendite in calo).
Tutto questo ha creato il movimento più importante nel corso della settimana e cioè il forte movimento correttivo del dollaro, movimento che è apprezzato dalle autorità monetarie USA se avviene gradualmente ma non è tollerato se subisce accelerazioni che possono destabilizzare l'intero sistema finanziario.
Come detto in passato le autorità USA preferirebbero nella situazione attuale essere costrette a muovere i tassi tra diverso tempo mentre invece i mercati richiedono ormai a gran voce in tanto auspicato taglio.
Il movimento della settimana sulla curva dei tassi sottolinea questo con l'allargamento dello spread tra le varie scadenze che dal mio punto di vista potrebbe portare a delle conseguenze anche sui mercati azionari.
Su questo grafico è segnato lo spartiacque da seguire in chiave intermarket.
I carry sono in fase di riduzione e questo è una delle cause della debolezza della settimana non sviluppatasi in maniera massiccia negli USA perchè li gli investitori individuali sono attualmente compratori e quindi limitano maggiormente i movimenti rispetto agli altri mercati. (e la debolezza del dollaro favorisce gli arbitraggi su quel mercato..)
Per la prossima settimana continuare a osservare i segnali di debolezza elencati all'inizio del post può essere utile per capire la profondità di questa correzione.
In particolare un commento in più lo voglio riservare all'andamento del petrolio.
Infatti un suo recupero potrebbe essere una spada di damocle per i mercati ma solo se questo recupero avverrà in maniera complessiva e non solo per la debolezza del dollaro.
Per questo motivo il modo milgiore per osservare le eventuali pressione inflazionistiche del settore energy è opportuno confrontare l'andamento del petrolio con l'andamento di una delle valute più forti della fase attuale (l'euro).
Notare come la correlazione del prezzo del petrolio in Euro e gli indici azionari sia molto più lampante che non con il semplice prezzo del petrolio.
Durante la scorsa settimana la rottura della trendline ascendente dello Spx aveva convinto molti del possibile sviluppo di una correzione di medio degli indici azionari tenuto presente che durante queste sedute di debolezza si erano sviluppate interessanti comportamenti interni ai mercati ed esterni che potevano segnalare una seria pausa correttiva:
1)Debolezza del settore finanziario
2)Forza dell'oro contro le commodity industriali
3)Allargamento della curva sui tassi
4)Debolezza dei mercati del medio oriente
5)Possibile rerating del mercato Giapponese
6)Nuova forza delle commodity
In realtà però, pur rimanendo tutti questi elementi di incertezza il mercato è riuscito con un buon guizzo a recuperare la trendline segnalando, seppure con pericolose divergenze la possibile ripresa del trend rialzista.
Personalmente rimango orientato sulla possibilità che la fase di consolidamento prosegua ancora seppure al momento non sembrerebbe tale da fare eccessivi danni seppure i livelli da monitorare sullo spoore non sono poi cosi' lontani (1377 e 1363).
Sebbene vi sia una certa divergenza tra i vari poll sul sentiment degli investitori i grafici sui fondi Rydex mostrano che gli individuali stanno ancora entrando sui mercati sebbene con cautela ed in particolare proseguono le chiusure delle posizioni bearish.
Sebbene vi sia ancora spazio le posizioni degli individuali si vanno via via più estese.
Le dichiarazioni delle autorità monetarie asiatiche, russe e del medio oriente hanno posto pressioni al dollaro. (collegate probabilmente agli incontri previsti il 14 dicembre tra Bernanke e Paulson e le autorità Cinesi alfine di "preparare" meglio l'incontro)
Su questo si sono innestate la riduzione dello spread tra rendimenti obbligazionari dell'area dollaro rispetto ad altre aree e la situazione macro USA che gli ultimi dati USA mostrano in peggioramento.
I future quotati al CME sui prezzi degli immobili scontano una discesa più marcata dei prezzi nei primi sei mesi del prossimo anno (e questo potrebbe essere effettivamente un problema per i mutui totali) ed i consumi mostrano una chiara divergenza di vendite tra gli store che si rivolgono alla fascia alta (vendite in crescita) e quelli che si rivolgono alla fascia bassa (vendite in calo).
Tutto questo ha creato il movimento più importante nel corso della settimana e cioè il forte movimento correttivo del dollaro, movimento che è apprezzato dalle autorità monetarie USA se avviene gradualmente ma non è tollerato se subisce accelerazioni che possono destabilizzare l'intero sistema finanziario.
Come detto in passato le autorità USA preferirebbero nella situazione attuale essere costrette a muovere i tassi tra diverso tempo mentre invece i mercati richiedono ormai a gran voce in tanto auspicato taglio.
Il movimento della settimana sulla curva dei tassi sottolinea questo con l'allargamento dello spread tra le varie scadenze che dal mio punto di vista potrebbe portare a delle conseguenze anche sui mercati azionari.
Su questo grafico è segnato lo spartiacque da seguire in chiave intermarket.
I carry sono in fase di riduzione e questo è una delle cause della debolezza della settimana non sviluppatasi in maniera massiccia negli USA perchè li gli investitori individuali sono attualmente compratori e quindi limitano maggiormente i movimenti rispetto agli altri mercati. (e la debolezza del dollaro favorisce gli arbitraggi su quel mercato..)
Per la prossima settimana continuare a osservare i segnali di debolezza elencati all'inizio del post può essere utile per capire la profondità di questa correzione.
In particolare un commento in più lo voglio riservare all'andamento del petrolio.
Infatti un suo recupero potrebbe essere una spada di damocle per i mercati ma solo se questo recupero avverrà in maniera complessiva e non solo per la debolezza del dollaro.
Per questo motivo il modo milgiore per osservare le eventuali pressione inflazionistiche del settore energy è opportuno confrontare l'andamento del petrolio con l'andamento di una delle valute più forti della fase attuale (l'euro).
Notare come la correlazione del prezzo del petrolio in Euro e gli indici azionari sia molto più lampante che non con il semplice prezzo del petrolio.
dan24
Forumer storico
bund settimanale
sia a livello daily che settimanale non c'e' stato di stress tale da far pensare a bruschi movimenti ribassisti. anzi il tono si mantiene rialzista...e il primo obbiettivo a 119 è stato quasi fatto con un max a 118,88. Prime resistenze proprio area 119 e 119,50 con in mezzo area 119,40 dove transita il 61.8% di tutto il movimento ribassista settembre-luglio.
Attenderei queste area per provare short non prima.
sia a livello daily che settimanale non c'e' stato di stress tale da far pensare a bruschi movimenti ribassisti. anzi il tono si mantiene rialzista...e il primo obbiettivo a 119 è stato quasi fatto con un max a 118,88. Prime resistenze proprio area 119 e 119,50 con in mezzo area 119,40 dove transita il 61.8% di tutto il movimento ribassista settembre-luglio.
Attenderei queste area per provare short non prima.
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