Derivati USA: CME-CBOT-NYMEX-ICE Tbond,Tnote,Bund&CO-giu/lug2006: fuga dai Bonds (vm18)

[gipa69]

ok si parte destinazione 1259 step da ricopertura 1271 sotto 1281.7 è sempre short la legge del 55


cmq x quelli piu' cauti sotto il valore di 11140 c'è la conferma

il transport svolge la funzione dell sox


gipa finche è guadagno va sempre bene ottimo

Si hai ragione ma oggi potevo fare parecchio di più
Comunque è andata bene lo stesso

 

[smile]

si continua quindi con l'estenuante trading...non si capisce se è di accumulazione o distribuzione....

ma fibo a.zzo fai ?? rincorri il range estenuato


fermati e riprendi fiato ..non ti stancare

Gipa col senno' di poi saremmo tutti mln anche la verita'

ciao

 

[gipa69]

Chiusura americana

Riprendendo l'analisi di medio periodo il rally partito a metà Luglio sembrerebbe mostrare i primi segnali di debolezza nel comportamento delle ultime sedute.
A parte l'analisi autoavveratasi di un possibile test per lo spoore dell'area intorno ai 1295/1300 prima di una ripresa della correzione e l'indice è arrivato a circa 1293 ed è poi sceso sebbene in tutte le ultime sedute sia stata sempre testata o al rialzo o al ribasso l'area intorno ai 1280.

Dal punto di vista tecnico la posizione degli indicatori classici non è molto costruttiva mentre gli internals del mercato peggiorano in maniera importante.
Gli indici relativi alle small e mid caps mostrano una certa debolezza non riuscendo ad emergere dalla correzione precedente e solo le big caps mostrano una certa forza che sembra più una rotazione difensiva piuttosto che lo svilupparsi di una nuova leadership (cosa che invece potrebbe verificarsi più in là).

I volumi della giornata dopo aver mostrato una certa forza nella fase del rialzo fino alle chiusure europee sono pressochè scomparsi nella fase di consolidamento successivo per poi ripresentarsi con ancora maggiore forza e costanza nell'affondo di fine seduta portando la giornata ad avere buoni volumi complessivi.

Continua la debolezza del DJtransportation che deve essere un campanello d'allarme per i sostenitori della crescita anche se UPS è adesso al test di un supporto molto importante

Al momento i mercati europei e soprattutto asiatici mostrano una maggiore forza, i primi probabilmente grazie ai risultati aziendali molto forti ed i secondi grazie ai forti dati macro ma è sicuramente che una ulteriore debolezza americana avrà il suo impatto anche su quei mercati con le consuete accelerazioni.

 

[gipa69]

Altro aspetto interessante è che la discesa dei mercati finanziari di oggi è stata accompagnata con la veloce ritirata del prezzo del petrolio chiusi praticamente invariati.
Sembra che i mercati vogliano accontentare la FED per non dover sostenere ulteriori rialzi.....

MarketWatch
Crude backs off record highs to end little changed
Wednesday August 9, 3:42 pm ET
By Mark Cotton
Natural gas ends at one-week high; BP's Prudhoe Bay oil may be back on tap


NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude prices backed off record highs to end little changed Wednesday after BP raised hopes of a partial resumption of crude deliveries from its Prudhoe oil field, and as a larger-than-expected decline in gasoline inventories failed to spark a rally in gasoline futures.

There was "a last minute surge in profit taking," said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst and vice president at Alaron Trading. "Unleaded gas seemed reluctant to rally all day and led the complex lower. Flynn added that some traders have also been "trying to put the BP debacle in perspective."

Crude for September delivery ended up 4 cents at $76.35 a barrel, well off a session high of $77.45.

Gasoline futures fell 5.41 cents to $2.172 a gallon as Department of Energy data showing a decline of 3.2 million barrels in inventories had little impact. It was the third straight weekly decline, and was much larger than the estimated range of a drop between 400,000 and 850,000 barrels.

"The villain once again is strong apparent demand for gasoline," said Rakesh Shankar, economist at Moody's Economy.com. "This remains as puzzling as ever, given the recent uptick in gasoline prices. Gasoline demand apparently rose 1.8% for the week ending August 4." Shankar said recent reports, including monthly real consumer spending data, have been showing a sharp and steady decline in consumer spending on gasoline.

Shankar notes that BP's shutdown will not register in the inventories data until next week's release. "Expect further drawdowns in crude inventories and stronger imports as a result, although some near-term disruptions are likely," he said.

Crude supplies fell by 1.1 million barrel, broadly in line with expectations, but distillates, which include winter heating oil and jet fuel, fell by a surprising 200,000 barrels in the latest week. The forecast had been for an increase in the range of 750,000 barrels to 1.3 million barrels. Heating oil futures climbed on the supply news, and were last up 2.36 cents at $2.14 a gallon.

"Normal excitement about a broad U.S. crude oil inventory draw is tempered when it turns out such a draw hinges on stocks falling on the isolated West Coast," said UBS analyst Jan Stuart. "Because of the large production crisis in Alaska, this morning's data turned that sentiment upside down."

Much of Alaska's oil production ends up on the West Coast. What sent alarm bells ringing, said Stuart, was that West Coast stocks fell by around 3% or 1.7 million barrels a day.


Debate swirls over BP outage impact
The market has been buffeted in the past few days as it tries to sift through conflicting estimates and commentary on the impact of BP's pipeline shutdown in Alaska.
BP PLC (NYSEP - News) said Monday that it needed to shut down production of about 400,000 barrels of oil a day to tackle corrosion eating away at a key line that takes oil from the Prudhoe Bay field, located on Alaska's North Slope. The reduction represents nearly half the total daily production from the North Slope, and about 8% of daily U.S. output.

But BP will decide whether to reopen half of the Alaska field by this weekend, it said in a transcript of an investor conference call released Wednesday. The company would decide whether to reopen the West side, which accounts for 200,000 barrels a day, or half of daily production, after examining another 1,000 feet of pipeline at the end of this week, a BP spokesman added.

The company said it has ordered replacement pipework for about 60% of its failed transit pipeline system, but gave no timetable on when to expect full resumption of oil output from Prudhoe Bay.

For commodities trader Kevin Kerr, the BP fiasco raises questions about the state of the Trans-Alaska pipeline.

Although the oil pumped through that pipeline is "more market-ready crude" in that much of the water that causes corrosion has been removed, "the fact that BP was caught with its pants down on 22 miles of transit pipe shows that the potential for a nasty surprise to the Trans-Alaska pipeline is quite real." Kerr edits the Global Resources Trader Investment letter, a service of MarketWatch.


More kidnappings in Nigeria
Two Norwegians and two Ukrainians have been abducted from a supply ship off the coast of Nigeria, in what is believed to be the latest in a string of kidnappings by militants in the Niger Delta, who are fighting for more local control of the region's oil resources, the BBC reported.
Some forecasts suggest that the attacks have cut Nigeria's oil output by over one third, or 715,000 barrels a day. The country's usual daily output is around 2.5 million barrels per day.


Israel's cabinet gives go-ahead for deeper push into Lebanon
The latest news out of the Middle East also appears to be supportive to oil prices in the near term.
The Israeli government approved a plan to push deeper into Southern Lebanon to flush out Hezbollah militants who have been firing hundreds of rockets into northern Israel, the BBC reported.

The offensive would require an additional 30,000 troops, with Israel looking to advance as far as the Litani river, which is about 18 miles from the Israeli border, said the BBC.

Diplomats at the United Nations are working on a revised resolution that calls for an end to the conflict. The resolution is being redrafted to take into account Arab League objections to the initial text, notably the fact that the proposal didn't call for an immediate Israeli withdrawal from Southern Lebanon.

Iran also remains a concern as it continues to defy the U.S. and other Western powers over its nuclear enrichment program.


Natural gas surges
Natural-gas prices ended at a one-week high on expectations Thursday's inventories data will show a decline in domestic supplies.
"The weather has been hot and it hasn't cooled off quite as much as people thought," said Bill O'Grady, director of fundamentals futures research at A.G. Edwards. "The key to demand is temperature."

Natural-gas prices rose 49.3 cents, or 6.9% to $7.651 per million British thermal units.

The Department of Energy is likely to report a decline in natural-gas inventories of 5 billion to 10 billion cubic feet for the latest week, according to UBS analyst William Featherston.

Featherston said the decline compares to a "43 Bcf injection in 2005 and the five-year average of a 62 Bcf injection." The analyst points to U.S. weather which has been some 23% warmer than the prior year and 35% warmer than usual.

First Enercast Financial expects a small build in inventories of 7 billion cubic feet while Fimat USA is projecting natural gas supplies to fall by 4 billion cubic feet.

 

[inth€m]

Altro aspetto interessante è che la discesa dei mercati finanziari di oggi è stata accompagnata con la veloce ritirata del prezzo del petrolio chiusi praticamente invariati.
Sembra che i mercati vogliano accontentare la FED per non dover sostenere ulteriori rialzi.....

il tuo punto di vista è come sempre illuminante..ciao gipa grazie

 

[gipa69]

Questa mattina un sacco di news importanti....

Possibile pressioni sui tassi giapponesi e quindi sulla liquidità globale.

Japan's Producer Prices Rise at Fastest in 25 Years

Aug. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's producer prices rose at the fastest pace in 25 years as oil and commodities prices surged, increasing pressure on companies to pass on rising costs to consumers as the economy expand.

An index of prices that companies pay for energy and raw materials such as iron ore increased 3.4 percent from a year earlier, the biggest gain since March 1981, the Bank of Japan said in Tokyo today.

------------
la crescita della Cina è ancora troppo expoprt oriented....

China's Trade Surplus Rises to Record $14.6 Billion

Aug. 10 (Bloomberg) -- China had a record trade surplus for the third straight month in July, adding to pressure on the government to let the yuan gain faster.

The surplus widened to $14.6 billion from $14.5 billion in June, the Beijing-based customs bureau said today on its Web site. Exports jumped 22.6 percent and imports increased 19.7 percent, the statement said.

China has pledged to curb a ballooning trade surplus that's left the financial system flush with cash which is being spent building factories and apartments that the country may not need. With the gap set to top last year's record $102 billion this year, Premier Wen Jiabao may be pressed to let the yuan rise faster to slow the inflow of money and avoid trade sanctions from the U.S.

---------------

il ciclo dei tassi risulta ancora al rialzo....

South Korea Central Bank Raises Interest Rate to 4.5%

Aug. 10 (Bloomberg) -- South Korea's central bank unexpectedly raised its benchmark interest rate a quarter percentage point to a five-year high to quell inflation. The nation's bonds and shares dropped.

Bank of Korea Governor Lee Seong Tae and his fellow policy makers today increased the overnight call rate to 4.5 percent, the highest since September 2001. ``Price pressures will strengthen,'' Lee told reporters in Seoul.

South Korea joins central banks in Europe and Asia that are grappling with accelerating inflation sparked by the soaring cost of raw materials globally. Producer prices in the world's fifth-biggest oil importer rose at the fastest pace in 16 months in June as oil surged.

 

[gipa69]

Queste interessano a gastro ed al suo spread

Australia's Employment Surges More Than Expected

Aug. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Australian employment surged 10 times as much as expected in July as miners and retailers expanded, driving the nation's currency and bond yields higher on expectations the central bank will raise interest rates again.

Employment rose 50,700 after gaining a revised 53,800 in June. The jobless rate fell to 4.8 percent, the Bureau of Statistics said today in Sydney, the lowest since monthly records began in 1976.

Mining companies added staff as they expanded to meet soaring Asian demand, and retailers opened new stores as sales rebounded. An employment surge has created a skills shortage that may drive up wages and inflation, adding to expectations the Reserve Bank of Australia will need to raise interest rates a third time this year.

---------------

New Zealand's Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Falls to 3.6%

Aug. 10 (Bloomberg) -- New Zealand's jobless rate unexpectedly fell to a record low in the second quarter as employers hired 11 times more workers than expected, adding to signs the central bank has no scope to cut interest rates.

The unemployment rate fell to 3.6 percent from 3.9 percent in the first quarter, Statistics New Zealand said in Wellington today. Employers added 22,000 workers.

New Zealand's jobless rate is the second-lowest of 27 economies in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development that use standardized rates, the statistics agency said. Last month, central bank Governor Alan Bollard said higher wages, which reflects a shortage of labor and may buoy spending, remain a risk to the outlook for interest rates.

 

[gipa69]

Notizia importante per petrolio e suoi derivati....

UPDATE 2-China July crude imports drop to lowest in 11 mths
Thu Aug 10, 2006 12:09am ET

By Chen Aizhu

BEIJING, Aug 10 (Reuters) - China's crude oil imports in July fell 3.9 percent from a year earlier to the lowest daily rate in 11 months, customs data showed on Thursday, as plant maintenance and an apparent first-half stockbuild curbed purchases.

But the data showed refined fuel imports were near their highest so far this year in July, pointing to firm fuel demand from the world's second-largest user, which logged double-digit growth through the second quarter.


July crude imports were at 10.64 million tonnes, or 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd), down 3.9 percent from July 2005 and versus 2.87 million bpd in June.

Imports in the first seven months rose 12.9 percent compared with the same period of 2005, to 83.98 million tonnes, or 2.89 million bpd.

Many analysts had expected imports to ease in the second half as the surge in first-half imports coupled with slowly rising domestic production had far outpaced the growth in officially reported refinery runs, implying that some companies may have been stocking up on crude, analysts have said.

In April Unipec, trading arm of state oil refiner Sinopec (0386.HK: Quote, Profile, Research)(SNP.N: Quote, Profile, Research), had offered to resell over 8 million barrels of crude due to swollen stocks. Chinese companies have also cut back purchases of West African crude, often a good indicator of overall imports. [O/WAFRICA1]

Refinery maintenance also limited demand, with at least two coastal refineries in turnaround last month, including a 70,000-bpd crude unit at Sinopec's Gaoqiao plant.
PetroChina's (0857.HK: Quote, Profile, Research) Jinxi refinery, in northeast Liaoning province, shut down the 80,000-bpd crude distillator in the second half of July.[REF/A].

Despite the slackening pace of import growth, China is on track for an estimated annual rise of about 15 percent, roughly 400,000 bpd, a trading manager at Sinopec Corp. told Reuters.

Sinopec, Asia's biggest refiner, has now completed crude purchases for the whole third quarter at a "stable pace", compared with the first two quarters, said the trader.

"We mostly look at our own import numbers, which have shown a steady pace of increase in line with the additional refining capacity available this year," said the trader.


Sinopec's newest refinery, a 160,000-bpd facility on Hainan island, began test runs earlier this month.

Oil product imports in the first seven months jumped 21.2 percent to 21.97 million tonnes. In July alone, oil product imports stood at 3.74 million tonnes.

China's implied fuel demand quickened to 15 percent in June, according to Reuters calculations based on official data. That growth was driven by a roaring economy, which rallied at over 10 percent in the first half of the year. (Additional reporting by Niu Shuping and Benjamin Kang Lim)

 

[gipa69]

nasdaq e Indu graficamente....

 

[gipa69]

Ed infine allarme terrorismo sia negli USA che in UK per possibili attentati.

In particolare in UK arrestati una serie di giovani asiatici che progettavano di portare sugli aerei bombe attraverso i bagagli a mano da far esplodere in volo.
Negli USA si cercano degli Egiziani scomparsi.


L'apertura negativa dell'europa ritengo che sia da associare alla chiusura negativa di ieri delle Borse USA, alle notizie negative sul ciclo dei tassi e della liquidità, ed all'allarme terrorismo.

Secondo me è la seconda di queste la più importante.