Derivati USA: CME-CBOT-NYMEX-ICE Tbond,Tnote,Bund&CO-giu/lug2006: fuga dai Bonds (vm18)

  • Creatore Discussione Creatore Discussione f4f
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buone vacanze masgui, evita se puoi la liguria :D


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Personalmente non la ritengo così importante anche se dati enormente diversi dal consensus potrebbero avere il loro effetto.

Il movimento di oggi è stato probabilmente dettato da una riduzione del rischio nel portafogli degli investitori USA e probabilmente anche internazionali che hanno proceduto a rimpatriare parte dei propri capitali (per gli investitori internazionali a ridurre l'esposizione sugli emergenti..) rinforzando il dollaro ed indebolendo il mondo commodity soprattutto (per la gioia della FED...).

Se il movimento correttivo dovesse rientrare ed il mercato proseguisse il recupero penso che il dollaro riprenderebbe il cammino di debolezza, viceversa il trend di rafforzamento potrebbe proseguire.
Oggi a dettare il ritmo sono i flussi di investimento e l'avversione al rischio.
(e i desideri delle banche centrali....)
 
Treasuries slip before 30-year bond auction
Thu Aug 10, 2006

By Ellen Freilich

NEW YORK, Aug 10 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices erased some of the effect of an early safety bid on Thursday on news of a foiled airliner bombing plot and slipped slightly ahead of new supply due in the early afternoon.

The Treasury's sale of $10 billion in 30-year bonds <US30YT>_at 1 p.m. (1700 GMT) looked likely to be the main feature of the session for the rest of the day.

Traders said the auction would draw buyers and that proposed government changes to the pension bill could help boost demand for longer-dated paper.

"People need paper," said Tom diGaloma, head of U.S. Treasuries trading at Jefferies and Company, in New York. "Their duration is shorter than it should be and they need to buy. Whether the market backs up or takes off, one way or the other they'll be in the 30-year. Customers need duration."
You better not be short," said Brian Robinson, bond strategist at 4Cast Ltd in New York. "The guys that need to buy it will buy it, but I don't think anyone is going to be short in front of it."

The fact that 30-year bonds are the only paper yielding more than 5 percent could help the auction of that paper, analysts said.

Thursday's auction completes the government's $44 billion quarterly refunding.

The Treasury began selling 30-year bonds again in February 2006 after a hiatus in that maturity of more than four years.

For this year, the Treasury scheduled two auctions of 30-year bonds. But in 2007, it plans to sell the long maturity in all four of its quarterly refundings.

The $14 billion of 30-year bonds auctioned in February drew a high yield of 4.53 percent.

The yield curve was steady after steepening on Wednesday, primarily in response to the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady at its Tuesday policy meeting, analysts said.

For the moment, Treasuries seemed stymied, with all yields except that of the 30-year bond below 5 percent.

"The Fed may be on hold, but a rally (from these levels) makes no sense unless you are in the camp that the Fed has tightened too much and needs to reverse its policy," said Chris Rupkey, vice president and senior financial economist at Bank of Tokyo/Mitsubishi UFJ, in New York. "That is not our view; the economy is down, but not out."
n late morning trade, 10-year notes <US10YT> yielded 4.94 percent, unchanged from Wednesday.

Two-year notes <US2YT> were unchanged, yielding 4.93 percent.

The 30-year bond <US30YT> was up 1/32, yielding 5.06 percent. The 30-year bonds to be sold at 1 p.m. (1300 GMT) also yielded 5.06 percent on a when-issued basis.

Prices firmed early in the session after UK police said they had thwarted an imminent plot to blow up several transatlantic aircraft in mid-flight.

On the economic front, news that U.S. jobless claims rose 7,000 to 319,000 in the latest week and that the U.S. trade deficit narrowed slightly to $64.80 billion in June from $64.97 billion in May had no market impact.

30-YEAR BOND SALE

Traders said there would be reluctance to go into the auction short of 30-year notes.
You better not be short," said Brian Robinson, bond strategist at 4Cast Ltd in New York. "The guys that need to buy it will buy it, but I don't think anyone is going to be short in front of it."

The fact that 30-year bonds are the only paper yielding more than 5 percent could help the auction of that paper, analysts said.

Thursday's auction completes the government's $44 billion quarterly refunding.

The Treasury began selling 30-year bonds again in February 2006 after a hiatus in that maturity of more than four years.

For this year, the Treasury scheduled two auctions of 30-year bonds. But in 2007, it plans to sell the long maturity in all four of its quarterly refundings.

The $14 billion of 30-year bonds auctioned in February drew a high yield of 4.53 percent.

The yield curve was steady after steepening on Wednesday, primarily in response to the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady at its Tuesday policy meeting, analysts said.

For the moment, Treasuries seemed stymied, with all yields except that of the 30-year bond below 5 percent.

You better not be short," said Brian Robinson, bond strategist at 4Cast Ltd in New York. "The guys that need to buy it will buy it, but I don't think anyone is going to be short in front of it."

The fact that 30-year bonds are the only paper yielding more than 5 percent could help the auction of that paper, analysts said.

Thursday's auction completes the government's $44 billion quarterly refunding.

The Treasury began selling 30-year bonds again in February 2006 after a hiatus in that maturity of more than four years.

For this year, the Treasury scheduled two auctions of 30-year bonds. But in 2007, it plans to sell the long maturity in all four of its quarterly refundings.

The $14 billion of 30-year bonds auctioned in February drew a high yield of 4.53 percent.

The yield curve was steady after steepening on Wednesday, primarily in response to the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady at its Tuesday policy meeting, analysts said.

For the moment, Treasuries seemed stymied, with all yields except that of the 30-year bond below 5 percent.

"The Fed may be on hold, but a rally (from these levels) makes no sense unless you are in the camp that the Fed has tightened too much and needs to reverse its policy," said Chris Rupkey, vice president and senior financial economist at Bank of Tokyo/Mitsubishi UFJ, in New York. "That is not our view; the economy is down, but not out.""The Fed may be on hold, but a rally (from these levels) makes no sense unless you are in the camp that the Fed has tightened too much and needs to reverse its policy," said Chris Rupkey, vice president and senior financial economist at Bank of Tokyo/Mitsubishi UFJ, in New York. "That is not our view; the economy is down, but not out."
 

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