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Derivati USA: CME-CBOT-NYMEX-ICE Tbond,Tnote,Bund&CO-giu/lug2006: fuga dai Bonds (vm18) (2 lettori)
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Treasuries prices rise after weak US June payrolls
Fri Jul 7, 2006
By John Parry
NEW YORK, July 7 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices rose on Friday after the government's June employment report indicated the labor market was softer than economists had forecast.
But Treasuries gains were capped because the report contained data showing strong growth in average hourly earnings -- a sign of wage inflation -- which was a potential negative for bond prices, some analysts said.
Inflation erodes the value of a bond over time and could also force the Federal Reserve to extend its interest rate hiking cycle, further weighing on bond prices.
"Treasuries rallied. We have a smaller payrolls number than expected; at the low end of estimates, which is positive for the bond market," said Beth Malloy, bond market analyst at research company Briefing.com in Chicago.
"But you do have to look at the average hourly earnings number which will weigh on Treasuries prices," Malloy said.
Benchmark 10-year notes <US10YT=RR> rose 5/32 in price for a yield of 5.16 percent, versus 5.18 percent before the jobs report and 5.19 percent late on Thursday.
Bond yields and prices move inversely.
A rise of 121,000 in non-farm payrolls jobs, below economists' median forecast for a rise of 185,000 according to a Reuters poll, reduced bond investors' expectations the Federal Reserve may raise its key overnight lending rate at its August policy-setting meeting.
U.S. interest rate futures initially showed the chance of a rate increase in August at about 54 percent, down from about 70 percent before the data's release.
Two-year notes <US2YT=RR> -- which respond closely to expectations for Fed interest rate moves -- were up 1/32 in price to yield 5.20 percent, versus about 5.22 percent before the report and compared with 5.22 percent late on Thursday.
WAGE PRESSURES:
Average hourly earnings rose 0.5 percent in June, above economists' forecasts for a rise of 0.3 percent.
If bond investors start to bet that inflation pressures may rise in a sustained way, forcing the Fed to extend its rate hikes more than currently expected, that would weigh on Treasury prices.
This thought was curbing Treasuries' price gains, analysts said.
"We are not getting quite the rally that we thought we would. The (payrolls) number is weaker-than-expected," said Gerald Lucas, senior Treasury and agency trading strategist with Banc of America Securities in New York.
"The bad news is that the average hourly earnings are up. This is somewhat of a lagging indicator and might get the Fed a little bit nervous," Lucas said. "But the Fed does not act on one figure alone," he added. On Wednesday, a surprisingly strong ADP National Employment Report on private sector employment, had appeared to augur a robust June nonfarm payrolls report and many economists had marked up their forecasts for payrolls after the ADP data.
30-year bonds <US30YT=RR> rose 11/32 in price to yield 5.20 percent, compared with 5.22 percent on Thursday.
(Additional reporting by Lucia Mutikani in New York)
Fri Jul 7, 2006
By John Parry
NEW YORK, July 7 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices rose on Friday after the government's June employment report indicated the labor market was softer than economists had forecast.
But Treasuries gains were capped because the report contained data showing strong growth in average hourly earnings -- a sign of wage inflation -- which was a potential negative for bond prices, some analysts said.
Inflation erodes the value of a bond over time and could also force the Federal Reserve to extend its interest rate hiking cycle, further weighing on bond prices.
"Treasuries rallied. We have a smaller payrolls number than expected; at the low end of estimates, which is positive for the bond market," said Beth Malloy, bond market analyst at research company Briefing.com in Chicago.
"But you do have to look at the average hourly earnings number which will weigh on Treasuries prices," Malloy said.
Benchmark 10-year notes <US10YT=RR> rose 5/32 in price for a yield of 5.16 percent, versus 5.18 percent before the jobs report and 5.19 percent late on Thursday.
Bond yields and prices move inversely.
A rise of 121,000 in non-farm payrolls jobs, below economists' median forecast for a rise of 185,000 according to a Reuters poll, reduced bond investors' expectations the Federal Reserve may raise its key overnight lending rate at its August policy-setting meeting.
U.S. interest rate futures initially showed the chance of a rate increase in August at about 54 percent, down from about 70 percent before the data's release.
Two-year notes <US2YT=RR> -- which respond closely to expectations for Fed interest rate moves -- were up 1/32 in price to yield 5.20 percent, versus about 5.22 percent before the report and compared with 5.22 percent late on Thursday.
WAGE PRESSURES:
Average hourly earnings rose 0.5 percent in June, above economists' forecasts for a rise of 0.3 percent.
If bond investors start to bet that inflation pressures may rise in a sustained way, forcing the Fed to extend its rate hikes more than currently expected, that would weigh on Treasury prices.
This thought was curbing Treasuries' price gains, analysts said.
"We are not getting quite the rally that we thought we would. The (payrolls) number is weaker-than-expected," said Gerald Lucas, senior Treasury and agency trading strategist with Banc of America Securities in New York.
"The bad news is that the average hourly earnings are up. This is somewhat of a lagging indicator and might get the Fed a little bit nervous," Lucas said. "But the Fed does not act on one figure alone," he added. On Wednesday, a surprisingly strong ADP National Employment Report on private sector employment, had appeared to augur a robust June nonfarm payrolls report and many economists had marked up their forecasts for payrolls after the ADP data.
30-year bonds <US30YT=RR> rose 11/32 in price to yield 5.20 percent, compared with 5.22 percent on Thursday.
(Additional reporting by Lucia Mutikani in New York)
masgui
Forumer storico
ditropan ha scritto:oggi sono scatenato ... vediamo se riesco a farmi un'altro giro di giostra ....
Immagine sostituita con URL per un solo Quote: http://www.investireoggi.it/phpBB2/immagini/1152277457azz1.jpg
se continui a comprare così fai cambiare il titolo un altra volta al thread....
