Anche oggi seduta discretamente volatile con continue inversioni di direzioni che non hanno comunque compromesso il trend positivo di breve sebbene avvengano sempre con volumi modesti.
Nalla fase attuale più che l'analisi tecnica hanno peso le notizie macro ed in parte gli earnings delle imprese.
Rispetto alle sedute precedenti è risultato oggi più evidente la sovraperformance degli USA rispetto all'Europa.
Aldilà del fatto che domani le borse europee potrebbero recuperare parte del gap l'interesse potrebbe invece essere dato dallo svilupparsi di uno switch tra le due aree dettato da considerazioni diverse in termini di situazione dei tassi.
Dopo il rialzo di oggi delle BCE ed i commenti abbastanza decisi su possibili futuri rialzi della BCE sembra diventare evidente che l'asincronia dei due cicli di rialzo sia maggiore di quanto precedentemente preventivato.
Vi è quindi la possibilità, nel caso la FED non tocchi i tassi l'8 agosto e faccia commenti sulla stabilità della crescita e su modeste pressioni inflazionistiche che gli operatori si aspettino che l'eventuale ciclo dei rialzi USA sia finito e che nel caso di possibile slowdown per la fine dell'anno inizio 2007 dovuto all'impatto ritardato degli effetti dei rialzi si comincia a riabbassare i tassi restituendo la liquidità catturata con questi rialzi e rendendo di nuovo dinamica la crescita USA ed i suoi asset.
Personalmente potrebbero avere troppa fretta negli eventi ma occorre essere pronti alle reazioni altrui piuttosto che alle proprie.
Domani si proseguirà con seduta simile a queste ultime e in USA si stanno già preparando....
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Payroll growth could determine Fed's move
Above 200K means hike, below 100K means pause, in between means limbo
Last Update: 4:15 PM ET Aug 3, 2006
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Rarely have financial markets been so focused on one economic number to tell them what to do next.
The Labor Department will report on July's employment situation on Friday at 8:30 a.m. The July nonfarm payrolls figure could determine whether the Federal Reserve stops raising rates here or goes again to 5.50% at next week's meeting.
And that decision by the Fed could have a big impact on trades in the next few months.
"They like big round numbers," said Ethan Harris, chief economist for Lehman Bros. Payroll growth over 200,000 could force the Fed to raise rates again, economists said. Growth under 100,000 would lock in a pause. And anything in between would leave everything up in the air until the Tuesday afternoon phone call from the Fed.
"The Fed is going to have to look at whether the economy is losing enough momentum to justify pausing," said Gary Thayer, economist for A.G. Edwards. Fed officials have said that slower growth, over time, will reduce inflationary pressures.
The decision about whether to raise interest rates again or pause next week is as close as can be.
The futures market is pricing in 43% odds of a rate hike. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch are equally split, but tilt toward a rate hike by 17 to 16.
A key member of the Fed, St. Louis Fed President William Poole, said earlier this week that it's a 50-50 toss up in his own mind. See our story.
The July payroll number is the last big number before the meeting. It could shift opinions in the market, and perhaps inside the Fed, toward one side or the other.
"The scales are pretty balanced," said Ray Stone, a partner at Stone & McCarthy Research, who said the debate inside his own firm mirrors that in the market and in the Fed. While Stone feels the Fed will pause, the economist with the task of making the firm's official prediction says they'll hike again.
The Fed never likes to be guided by just one number, but sometimes one data point does tip the scales.
The Fed "will be swayed by what the markets expect," said Lehman's Harris. The Fed has been looking for permission from the market to pause for months, but the inflation data have not allowed it.
"I'm amazed how much a slave the Fed is to market expectations," Harris said.
Market forecasting solid but not blowout job growth
For what it's worth, the market expects job growth of about 145,000 in June following three months of tepid growth averaging 110,000. The unemployment rate is expected to stay at 4.6%. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3%. And the average workweek is expected to stay at 33.9 hours. See Economic Calendar.
If the nonfarm payrolls on Friday are within range of expectations, "you could argue it both ways," said Stu Hoffman, chief economist for PNC. Barring a big surprise elsewhere in the report (say, a big drop in the unemployment rate), job growth between 100,000 and 200,000 for payrolls would leave a rate hike as a toss up, he said.
"It's possible it'll be uncertain until 2:15 p.m. on Tuesday," said Jan Hatzius, chief economist for Goldman Sachs.
Growth under 100,000 would be a strong signal that the economy is slowing. "The markets, rightly or wrongly, would see that as additional evidence that the market is slowing down and therefore the risks of inflation is diminished," Hoffman said.
Conversely, job growth over 200,000 would move the market's expectations definitively toward a rate hike next week, Hoffman said.
Hatzius said growth over about 175,000 would push the Fed toward another tightening of interest rates.
Harris said the August decision will matter little in the long run. "The big question is what do they do if inflation continues to rise?"
Harris said the Fed has done a "disservice" by suggesting that there's a painless way to fight inflation. "You have to have a period of sub-trend growth," he said, which means a higher unemployment rate and slower wage growth.
The Fed has a benign soft-landing scenario, but the inflation data continue to look horrible, Harris said.
The markets are simply ignoring the inflation data at their peril, Harris said.
"I want to believe the 'growth slowdown means a pause' story, but the inflation numbers keep circling around me like a pack of hyenas just waiting for me to drop my guard," said Tim Duy, an economics professor at the University of Oregon who writes a Fed watch column for an economics blog. Read more.
Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief of MarketWatch.
