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Teoria del Caos di Bill Williams
- Creatore Discussione robom1
- Data di Inizio
w_fib
Forumer storico
Ciao Robom alligatore e frattali sono di Bill Williams e non Larry.
Il primo è costituito da mm esp shiftate in avanti e non ti dà alcun segnale di trading se non conferme sulla situazione del mercato (trending, sideway)
Il frattale invece è un estremo che viene comprato o venduto con una logica di breakout
In rete trovi le formule per quasi tutti i sw di AT più diffusi.
Il primo è costituito da mm esp shiftate in avanti e non ti dà alcun segnale di trading se non conferme sulla situazione del mercato (trending, sideway)
Il frattale invece è un estremo che viene comprato o venduto con una logica di breakout
In rete trovi le formule per quasi tutti i sw di AT più diffusi.
robom1
Forumer storico
Ciao, stavo guardando il manuale di metatrader che ha già nativo alligator, frattali e gator. Ho trovato la formula del DPO e ho una mezza idea di come fare i frattali.
Da quello che ho letto su metatrader l'alligator ed i frattali sono congiunti per la strategia di trading, ma prima di iniziare a fare questo ts mi sembrava piu' corretto definire meglio le strategie di entry long e short che sinceramente non ho capito molto bene sul manuale di metatrader.
Tu hai capito come si combinano i due perche la strategia di entry non mi convince molto e siccome il tempo è scarso terminavo di fare altre cose.
Verrebbe definito in questo caso frattale una serie di almeno cinque barre successive con il piu' alto high che sta nel mezzo e due dei piu' bassi high ai lati.
Per inverso la serie contraria avrebbe il low piu' basso al centro e i due piu' alti low ai lati.
Qui dice che non si dovrebbe chiudere la vendita fino a quando se il frattale è piu' basso dei denti dell'alligator (la wilder centrale) e il viceversa.
Se sai qualcos'altro se me lo scrivi grazie.
Ps Billy Wilder non era un attore... ah no questo si chiama Bill giusto?
Da quello che ho letto su metatrader l'alligator ed i frattali sono congiunti per la strategia di trading, ma prima di iniziare a fare questo ts mi sembrava piu' corretto definire meglio le strategie di entry long e short che sinceramente non ho capito molto bene sul manuale di metatrader.
Tu hai capito come si combinano i due perche la strategia di entry non mi convince molto e siccome il tempo è scarso terminavo di fare altre cose.
Verrebbe definito in questo caso frattale una serie di almeno cinque barre successive con il piu' alto high che sta nel mezzo e due dei piu' bassi high ai lati.
Per inverso la serie contraria avrebbe il low piu' basso al centro e i due piu' alti low ai lati.
Qui dice che non si dovrebbe chiudere la vendita fino a quando se il frattale è piu' basso dei denti dell'alligator (la wilder centrale) e il viceversa.
Se sai qualcos'altro se me lo scrivi grazie.
Ps Billy Wilder non era un attore... ah no questo si chiama Bill giusto?
robom1
Forumer storico
Fonte Alpari
Bill Williams' Chaos Theory
It’s important to understand the meaning of chaos in order to understand correctly Bill Williams' Chaos Theory. Traditionally chaos is considered to be a disorderly structure, though in fact it is much higher level of order. Chaos is permanent, but stability is temporary. Financial markets result from chaos.
Bill Williams developed unique trading concepts by combining trading psychology with the Chaos Theory and its particular effect on the markets. He suggested that rewards from trading and investing are determined by human psychology and that anyone can become a profitable trader/investor if they uncover hidden determinism in seemingly random market events.
Bill Williams says that fundamental or technical analysis can not guarantee steady profitable results because they do not see the real market. Moreover, Bill Williams says that traders lose because they rely on different types of analysis, which are useless in nonlinear dynamic models, i.e. the real markets.
Trading is a psychological game, the way of self-realization and self-knowledge, so the best way to become successful is to find your trading self, to get to know it better and to follow it no matter what. Thus, there are two significant aspects: self-knowledge and understanding of the market structure.
It is Bill Williams' view that making money can be easy if you understand the market structure. In order to do this you should be aware of the market's inherent parts called dimensions, each of which adds to the total picture.
These market dimensions are:
Fractal (phase space)
Momentum (phase energy) - Awesome Oscillator
Acceleration / Deceleration (phase force)
Zone (phase energy / force combination)
Balance Line (strange attractors)
It is worth mentioning that before the first dimension (Fractales) generates a signal, all signals generated by other dimensions should be ignored. Once the position is open in the direction of the first fractal signal, the trader “adds-on” to this position every time a signal from other dimensions is generated. As a result, a 30% market movement gives the opportunity to make a profit of 90-120%.
Bill Williams' method to exit the market is very sensitive to price movements, so it helps to fix profit within the last 10% of the trend, capturing not less than 80% of the movement. Bill Williams' theory has become very popular among Forex traders.
Bill Williams' Chaos Theory
It’s important to understand the meaning of chaos in order to understand correctly Bill Williams' Chaos Theory. Traditionally chaos is considered to be a disorderly structure, though in fact it is much higher level of order. Chaos is permanent, but stability is temporary. Financial markets result from chaos.
Bill Williams developed unique trading concepts by combining trading psychology with the Chaos Theory and its particular effect on the markets. He suggested that rewards from trading and investing are determined by human psychology and that anyone can become a profitable trader/investor if they uncover hidden determinism in seemingly random market events.
Bill Williams says that fundamental or technical analysis can not guarantee steady profitable results because they do not see the real market. Moreover, Bill Williams says that traders lose because they rely on different types of analysis, which are useless in nonlinear dynamic models, i.e. the real markets.
Trading is a psychological game, the way of self-realization and self-knowledge, so the best way to become successful is to find your trading self, to get to know it better and to follow it no matter what. Thus, there are two significant aspects: self-knowledge and understanding of the market structure.
It is Bill Williams' view that making money can be easy if you understand the market structure. In order to do this you should be aware of the market's inherent parts called dimensions, each of which adds to the total picture.
These market dimensions are:
Fractal (phase space)
Momentum (phase energy) - Awesome Oscillator
Acceleration / Deceleration (phase force)
Zone (phase energy / force combination)
Balance Line (strange attractors)
It is worth mentioning that before the first dimension (Fractales) generates a signal, all signals generated by other dimensions should be ignored. Once the position is open in the direction of the first fractal signal, the trader “adds-on” to this position every time a signal from other dimensions is generated. As a result, a 30% market movement gives the opportunity to make a profit of 90-120%.
Bill Williams' method to exit the market is very sensitive to price movements, so it helps to fix profit within the last 10% of the trend, capturing not less than 80% of the movement. Bill Williams' theory has become very popular among Forex traders.
robom1
Forumer storico
Fonte Alpari
Bill Williams' Alligator
The Alligator is the combination of three balance lines (pic.1):
Alligator's Jaw (the blue line) — 13-period moving average at the mid price (High+Low)/2, which is offset 8 bars into the future;
Alligator's Teeth (the red line) — 8-period moving average at the mid price (High+Low)/2, which is offset 5 bars into the future;
Alligator's Lips (the green line) — 5-period moving average at the mid price (High+Low)/2, which is offset 2 bars into the future.
In order to build the Alligator in MetaTrader 4 use the “Insert -> Indicators -> Bill Williams – Alligator” menu sequence.
Picture 1. Bill Williams' Alligator
The current trend direction or its absence may be determined with the help of Alligator.
If all three lines are intertwined, the Alligator is asleep and the market is range-bound.
The longer it sleeps, the hungrier it gets. When it wakes up from a long sleep it chases the price much farther, therefore price movements are much stronger. When the Alligator is asleep, stay square. Once the Alligator wakes up, it opens its mouth (Balance lines diverge) and starts hunting. Having eaten enough, it goes to sleep again (Balance Lines converge), so it's time to fix profits.
If the Alligator is not asleep, the market is either uptrending or downtrending: if the price is above the Alligator's mouth then it's an uptrend;
if the price is below the Alligator's mouth then it's a downtrend.
The Alligator also helps to determine the character of the Elliot waves.
If the price is outside the Alligator's mouth the wave is impulsive; if the price is inside the Alligator's mouth the wave is corrective.
The formula for the Alligator:
MEDIAN PRICE = (HIGH + LOW) / 2
ALLIGATORS JAW = SMMA (MEDEAN PRICE, 13, 8)
ALLIGATORS TEETH = SMMA (MEDEAN PRICE, 8, 5)
ALLIGATORS LIPS = SMMA (MEDEAN PRICE, 5, 3)
Where:
MEDIAN PRICE — the central price;
HIGH — the highest bar price;
LOW — the lowest bar price;
SMMA (A, B, C) — smoothed moving average (A - smoothed data, B - smoothing period, C - move into the future).
ALLIGATORS JAW — blue line;
ALLIGATORS TEETH — red line;
ALLIGATORS LIPS — green line.
Bill Williams' Alligator
The Alligator is the combination of three balance lines (pic.1):
Alligator's Jaw (the blue line) — 13-period moving average at the mid price (High+Low)/2, which is offset 8 bars into the future;
Alligator's Teeth (the red line) — 8-period moving average at the mid price (High+Low)/2, which is offset 5 bars into the future;
Alligator's Lips (the green line) — 5-period moving average at the mid price (High+Low)/2, which is offset 2 bars into the future.
In order to build the Alligator in MetaTrader 4 use the “Insert -> Indicators -> Bill Williams – Alligator” menu sequence.
Picture 1. Bill Williams' Alligator
The current trend direction or its absence may be determined with the help of Alligator.
If all three lines are intertwined, the Alligator is asleep and the market is range-bound.
The longer it sleeps, the hungrier it gets. When it wakes up from a long sleep it chases the price much farther, therefore price movements are much stronger. When the Alligator is asleep, stay square. Once the Alligator wakes up, it opens its mouth (Balance lines diverge) and starts hunting. Having eaten enough, it goes to sleep again (Balance Lines converge), so it's time to fix profits.
If the Alligator is not asleep, the market is either uptrending or downtrending: if the price is above the Alligator's mouth then it's an uptrend;
if the price is below the Alligator's mouth then it's a downtrend.
The Alligator also helps to determine the character of the Elliot waves.
If the price is outside the Alligator's mouth the wave is impulsive; if the price is inside the Alligator's mouth the wave is corrective.
The formula for the Alligator:
MEDIAN PRICE = (HIGH + LOW) / 2
ALLIGATORS JAW = SMMA (MEDEAN PRICE, 13, 8)
ALLIGATORS TEETH = SMMA (MEDEAN PRICE, 8, 5)
ALLIGATORS LIPS = SMMA (MEDEAN PRICE, 5, 3)
Where:
MEDIAN PRICE — the central price;
HIGH — the highest bar price;
LOW — the lowest bar price;
SMMA (A, B, C) — smoothed moving average (A - smoothed data, B - smoothing period, C - move into the future).
ALLIGATORS JAW — blue line;
ALLIGATORS TEETH — red line;
ALLIGATORS LIPS — green line.
robom1
Forumer storico
Per chi collabora verrà dato l'eseguibile del ts (a prescindere dai risultati).
Domanda:
Le tre medie mobili si intendono in trading range quando non sono nella classica formazione? (oltre al momento in cui sono interdentate tra di loro?).
Ovvero uptrend nell'ordine dall'alto verso il basso lips teeth jaw o per il downtrend l'inverso
Si dice:
if the price is above the Alligator's mouth then it's an uptrend; per bocca si intende quindi tutto (mascella, denti labbra)? quindi il prezzo superiore a tuti e tre? quale prezzo sempre l'average (Low + High) / 2 ? oppure il close?
Domanda:
Le tre medie mobili si intendono in trading range quando non sono nella classica formazione? (oltre al momento in cui sono interdentate tra di loro?).
Ovvero uptrend nell'ordine dall'alto verso il basso lips teeth jaw o per il downtrend l'inverso
Si dice:
if the price is above the Alligator's mouth then it's an uptrend; per bocca si intende quindi tutto (mascella, denti labbra)? quindi il prezzo superiore a tuti e tre? quale prezzo sempre l'average (Low + High) / 2 ? oppure il close?
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