Titoli di Stato Italia Trading Titoli di Stato III° (Gennaio 2010 - Dicembre 2011) (2 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione NNGNews
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- btp off-the-run
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Zebro
Valar dohaeris
I Heard It Through The Baseline
By Paul Krugman
Oh, my. Treasury has a fact sheet explaining that $2 trillion error by S&P; it may sound technical, but to anyone who follows budget issues, it’s a doozy.
When the Congressional Budget Office “scores” policies, it does so relative to a “baseline” — a set of assumptions about what would happen in the absence of that policy. The normal CBO baseline — mandated by Congress — assumes that discretionary spending will rise with inflation, but no more. This isn’t realistic most of the time, since the demands for government services rise both with growing population and in many cases with rising economic activity; that’s one reason CBO always provides an “alternative fiscal scenario” that’s supposed to be more realistic. Under current conditions, however, with Obama already committed, even before the debt deal, to fairly harsh austerity, the zero-real-growth baseline is more realistic — and it’s how the debt deal was scored.
But S&P initially assumed that the debt deal was subtracting off a quite different baseline.
The point here is not so much the $2 trillion, which makes very little difference to real US fiscal prospects; it’s the fact that S&P stands revealed as not understanding basic analysis of budget estimates. I mean, I don’t think I would have made that mistake; real budget experts, like the people at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, certainly wouldn’t have.
So what we just saw was amateur hour. And these people are pronouncing on US credit-worthiness?
I Heard It Through The Baseline - NYTimes.com
Inca@@ato nero eh?
By Paul Krugman
Oh, my. Treasury has a fact sheet explaining that $2 trillion error by S&P; it may sound technical, but to anyone who follows budget issues, it’s a doozy.
When the Congressional Budget Office “scores” policies, it does so relative to a “baseline” — a set of assumptions about what would happen in the absence of that policy. The normal CBO baseline — mandated by Congress — assumes that discretionary spending will rise with inflation, but no more. This isn’t realistic most of the time, since the demands for government services rise both with growing population and in many cases with rising economic activity; that’s one reason CBO always provides an “alternative fiscal scenario” that’s supposed to be more realistic. Under current conditions, however, with Obama already committed, even before the debt deal, to fairly harsh austerity, the zero-real-growth baseline is more realistic — and it’s how the debt deal was scored.
But S&P initially assumed that the debt deal was subtracting off a quite different baseline.
The point here is not so much the $2 trillion, which makes very little difference to real US fiscal prospects; it’s the fact that S&P stands revealed as not understanding basic analysis of budget estimates. I mean, I don’t think I would have made that mistake; real budget experts, like the people at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, certainly wouldn’t have.
So what we just saw was amateur hour. And these people are pronouncing on US credit-worthiness?
I Heard It Through The Baseline - NYTimes.com
Inca@@ato nero eh?
camaleonte
Forumer storico
Venduti tutti i BTP/2037 a 76,90.
Tornato al 30% di liquidità.
Tornato al 30% di liquidità.
dalmazia
Nuovo forumer
Anche io venduti tutti mi rimangono un po' di cct ind 2016.
Apettiamo il 37 piu' in basso
Prospero
Io speriamo...
E' pensabile che l'andamento pessimo delle borse si arresti prestoD.J. - 2,8
DAX - 3,4
CAC - 3,6
TdS sui massimi di giornata
?E' pensabile che l'intervento della Bce duri ancora molto
?Spero di sbagliarmi ma l'impressione mia è che tutto questo potrebbe essere un grandioso fuoco di paglia acceso durante una pausa di riflessione della speculazione.
Io non compro nulla, ho venduto qualche cippetto in gain modesto ma soprattutto un missilone di BTP-1AG14 4,25% a 100,16
wall:, ora 100,84) preso il 2 di questo mese a 97,80)
dalmazia
Nuovo forumer
E' pensabile che l'andamento pessimo delle borse si arresti presto
E' pensabile che l'intervento della Bce duri ancora molto
Spero di sbagliarmi ma l'impressione mia è che tutto questo potrebbe essere un grandioso fuoco di paglia acceso durante una pausa di riflessione della speculazione.
Io non compro nulla, ho venduto qualche cippetto in gain modesto ma soprattutto un missilone di BTP-1AG14 4,25% a 100,16
Secondo me tra pochi giorni torna tutto come venerdi' scorso.
Cmq di qs tempi se guadagnamo qualcosa meglio accontentarsi anche se si poteva far meglio.
Prospero
Io speriamo...
Si, ma bisognerebbe sapere quanto ha già speso della cifra stanziata e poi non credo che le interessi abbassare ancora lo spread più di tanto.
Zebro
Valar dohaeris
Anch'io la penso così.
Se perde la faccia anche la BCE di quale moneta unica staremmo parlando?
Non è stato un intervento estemporaneo, ma apertamente dichiarato ai mercati.
Chiaro che non può essere un paracadute eterno, ma non può essere nemmeno un fuoco di paglia. IMHO
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