Obbligazioni valute high yield TURCHIA bond in usd e lira turca (1 Viewer)

m.m.f

Forumer storico
18 luglio era la fine dello stato di emergenza,mà quando mai di male in peggio :



Turchia: Akp propone nuove misure di sicurezza, paese si avvia verso stato di emergenza permanente
Ankara, 20 lug 19:08 - (Agenzia Nova) - Alla mezzanotte del 18 luglio scorso si è concluso lo stato di emergenza proclamato in Turchia a seguito del tentativo di colpo di Stato avvenuto nel paese il 15 luglio 2016. Terminata la fase emergenziale, il governo di Ankara appare egualmente determinato a garantire la sicurezza e l’ordine pubblico in Turchia. A tal fine, il partito di governo Giustizia e sviluppo (Akp) ha presentato alla Grande assemblea nazionale turca una serie di misure legislative per la sicurezza e contro il terrorismo. Tra il prolungamento del fermo di polizia, l’ampliamento dei poteri dei governatori provinciali nella gestione dell’ordine pubblico e la previsione di epurazioni nella pubblica amministrazione, i 30 articoli del pacchetto sicurezza dell’Akp paiono rendere permanente lo stato di emergenza, seppur non formalmente dichiarato. (segue) (Tua)
© Agenzia Nova - Riproduzione riservata
 
Ventodivino

Ventodivino

מגן ולא יראה
PubServlet


Turkey: The CBRT disappoints big time by leaving its policy rate unchanged
We reaffirm our UW rates and FX positions in the GBI-EM model portfolio
The CBRT surprised markets by keeping its policy rates unchanged at 17.75%. This compared with a market consensus of 100bp hike and the JPMorgan forecast of 125bp hike. The expectations of a sizeable hike had recently increased following the comments by the newly appointed Finance Minister Albayrak stating they would not fight with the markets and by President Erdogan saying they would facilitate international investors in every way. Today’s MPC decision was the first test for the new economy team. Although in theory the rate decision is solely taken by the MPC members, some investors are concerned that President Erdogan’s strong dislike for higher interest rates may have had an impact. Hence, we see this as an opportunity lost by the policymakers in restoring credibility.

As explained below, the CBRT now sees “a more significant rebalancing trend in economic activity” and hopes that “lagged impact of recent monetary policy decisions” and “contribution of fiscal policy” will help this rebalancing. If fiscal worries are resolved and such rebalancing gets reflected in economic data (in particular in July CPI data) then the impact of today’s decision could be limited. Otherwise, more monetary tightening looks unavoidable. In this regard, it is worth noting that the interest rate note still has a hawkish tone and the main policy guidance sentence remains unchanged saying further monetary tightening will be delivered if needed.

There are, however, some significant changes in language: 1) CBRT added a sentence saying “it might be necessary to maintain a tight monetary stance for an extended period” downplaying speculations over the risk of politically motivated easing in the coming months; 2) added a sentence on “the contribution of fiscal policy to the rebalancing process” suggesting some significant fiscal tightening (presumably through the paid military exemption scheme) is in the cards and 3) the CBRT sees a “more significant” rebalancing trend.

In short, the CBRT still acknowledges the risk but wants to see the impact of recent monetary and decisions along with the significant rebalancing on the inflation data before acting. The note suggests that the CBRT remains ready to act if the expected disinflation does not materialize and/or the lira gets under significant pressure. We keep our 125bp hike for the next meeting.

Local Markets Strategy: We reaffirm our UW position in Turkish local bonds and FX in the GBI-EM Model Portfolio
Today’s disappointing move by the CBRT serves to reinforce investor concerns about unhinged inflation, particularly after the big upside surprise to June CPI inflation and still-rising inflation expectations. Put against the headwinds to EM assets from rising core rates and trade fears, we think today’s lack of action will exacerbate the lira’s vulnerabilities, with a high risk of an inter-meeting rate hike should global risk appetite turn sour before the next MPC meeting on 13 September. Turkey’s long list of vulnerabilities, including a large negative NIIP, unsustainable current account deficit, concerns over the health of the banking sector (see here) and chronically-high inflation require decisive action to avoid a crisis. In the absence of decisive policy action and valuations still not looking cheap, we retain our long-held UW position in local bonds and in FX in the GBI-EM Model Portfolio.
 
MARCO82

MARCO82

Forumer attivo
O.T.
Mi chiedo come faccia un paese con bilancia commerciale in rosso, conto corrente in rosso e deficit fiscale ad avere ancora 130 billions nelle riserve...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 2 (members: 0, guests: 2)
Alto