RPT-POLL-Turkey's economy grew 11% in 2021; to cool to 3.5% in 2022 28/02/2022 05:44 - RSF
(Repeats with no changes to text)
* reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=TRGDPQ%3DECI
poll data
By Ezgi Erkoyun
ISTANBUL, Feb 22 (Reuters) - Turkey's economy is expected to have expanded 11% in 2021 after bouncing back strongly from the pandemic, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday, though it should cool off this year to 3.5% due to soaring inflation and a recent currency crisis.
Turkey was one of the few countries to expand in 2020, thanks largely to cheap loans following a series of rate cuts by the central bank to stave of the economic impact of the pandemic.
Growth picked up pace again in 2021 as COVID-19 restrictions were largely lifted. But a currency crisis at the end of the year, which sent inflation to near 50%, has stunted growth expectation for this year.
The median estimate in a Reuters poll of 25 economists for 2021 GDP growth stood at 11%, with forecasts ranging between 6% and 11.8%.
The poll also put growth in the fourth quarter at 9%, according to the median estimate of 13 economists, in a range of 6.3% and 11.9%.
Economic boom in 2021 fed into double-digit inflation, which soared as the central bank began cutting its policy rate in September. The unorthodox easing caused the lira to shed 44% against the dollar last year.
The easing cycle, which saw the central bank lower its policy rate by 500 basis points to 14%, was driven by President Tayyip Erdogan's economic plan that prioritises growth, employment, investment, exports and low rates.
Paradoxically, economists say the rate cuts could eventually have a negative impact on growth.
GDP growth in 2022 is expected to be 3.5%, based on the median estimate of 23 economists in the Reuters poll.
Predictions ranged from 0.8% to 5.2%.
Growth stood at 7.4% in Q3 of 2021, and a massive 22% in Q2 mainly due to the so-called base effect created by the pandemic-related downturn in 2020.
The Turkish Statistical Institute is expected to announce Q4 and 2021 GDP data at 0700 GMT on Feb. 28.
(Additional reporting by Sujith Pai; Writing by Ali Kucukgocmen; Editing by Jonathan Spicer)
((
[email protected] , @alikucukgocmen; +905319306206; Reuters Messaging: Reuters Messaging:
[email protected]))