Obbligazioni valute high yield TURCHIA bond in usd e lira turca
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Un commento sulla decisione del rating
Moody's has concluded its review of the Government of Turkey’s ratings, downgrading the rating from Baa3 to Ba1 on the basis of:
1- The increased risks relating to Turkey’s substantial external funding requirements.
The rating agency believes that the risk of a “sudden, disruptive reversal in capital flows” has heightened. The country still has a high current account deficit (GDP forecast for 2016: 4.3%, for 2017: 4%), exceeding those of countries with a similar rating. In 1H2016, tourism revenue (representing, in 2015, 15% of Turkey’s total current receipts and 4.4% of GDP) fell by 28% YoY, suffering from security-related incidents and the Russian sanctions.
According to Moody's, Turkey’s external debt has risen, estimating that the public, financial and corporate sectors have total debt of $156bn to redeem in 2016. Including the current account deficit, this amount will come to 26% of GDP in 2016 and 2017. The rating agency added that investor confidence, already low and volatile over the last 18 months (reflected by the depreciation of the Turkish lira against the USD), is sharply down as a result of this considerable need for external funding.
2- The weakened credit fundamentals (particularly growth and institutional strength), which were previously elements supporting the rating.
At present, Moody’s expects real GDP growth of, on average, 2.7% in the period 2016-2019 (vs average growth of 5.5% in the period 2010-2014), down from its forecast in May 2013, when it upgraded the Government of Turkey’s rating.
Moody's has concluded its review of the Government of Turkey’s ratings, downgrading the rating from Baa3 to Ba1 on the basis of:
1- The increased risks relating to Turkey’s substantial external funding requirements.
The rating agency believes that the risk of a “sudden, disruptive reversal in capital flows” has heightened. The country still has a high current account deficit (GDP forecast for 2016: 4.3%, for 2017: 4%), exceeding those of countries with a similar rating. In 1H2016, tourism revenue (representing, in 2015, 15% of Turkey’s total current receipts and 4.4% of GDP) fell by 28% YoY, suffering from security-related incidents and the Russian sanctions.
According to Moody's, Turkey’s external debt has risen, estimating that the public, financial and corporate sectors have total debt of $156bn to redeem in 2016. Including the current account deficit, this amount will come to 26% of GDP in 2016 and 2017. The rating agency added that investor confidence, already low and volatile over the last 18 months (reflected by the depreciation of the Turkish lira against the USD), is sharply down as a result of this considerable need for external funding.
2- The weakened credit fundamentals (particularly growth and institutional strength), which were previously elements supporting the rating.
At present, Moody’s expects real GDP growth of, on average, 2.7% in the period 2016-2019 (vs average growth of 5.5% in the period 2010-2014), down from its forecast in May 2013, when it upgraded the Government of Turkey’s rating.
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Qualche analista vede un rafforzamento dello ZAR pur in uno scenario di lungo termine di deprezzamento, in effetti....mica puo' piovere per sempre....
Rand set to break 5-year pattern of decline, claim analysts
Rand set to break 5-year pattern of decline, claim analysts
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Turchia
Si nota un attivismo che porta la Turchia ad avvicinarsi alla Russia.
Questo non è ancora un cambiamento di schieramento, ma preoccupa i mercati quali possano essere le reazioni USA
Primo effetto tensioni sul cambio
Dalla stampa turca articoli di normalizzazione dei rapporti con la Russia o di ricerca di supporto in agenzie di Rating non "americane".
ISTANBUL
Turkey has agreed to sign a joint investment fund with Russia on Sunday, Economy Minister Nihat Zeybekci said.
The $1 billion fund aims to boost relations in many areas such as tourism, energy, agriculture and transport.
Speaking to journalists in Istanbul following meeting with Russian counterpart Alexey Ulyukaev, Zeybekci said: “We have reached a significant level in a free trade agreement between countries.”
The minister added they were working on a free trade agreement.
"We have agreed on signing a historical deal with Russia by the end of 2017," he said.
“The investment fund will be instrumental for business," added Ulyukaev. "There might be some investment in agricultural industry as well, in producing products with high added value."
Diplomatic relations between Turkey and Russia soured following the downing of a Russian warplane that violated Turkish airspace last November, prompting Kremlin to order sanctions on Turkish food products, an end to visa-free travel and a ban on Russian tourists taking package holidays in Turkey.
Relations were normalized this June and July through a letter and subsequent telephone calls between the countries’ leaders. Since then, increasingly Turkey and Russia relations have become normalized and are expected to get higher.
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Japan Credit Rating (JCR) has confirmed Turkey’s long-term issuer rating as “BBB-” and its outlook as “stable.”
“The ratings are supported by the country’s largest economic foundation in the Middle East that could be a good export base to the EU and Islamic countries and its sound public and banking sectors’ buffer against shocks,” the rating agency said in a written statement on Oct. 7.
It also noted that Turkey’s domestic banks, the principal borrowers of the country’s external debt, have been managing to roll over their external borrowings well, and may likely benefit from the monetary easing in advanced economies that is expected to continue for some time to come.
“The public and banking sectors maintain their buffer against shocks that they have built in the past. In light of the above, JCR has affirmed its ratings with ‘a stable’ outlook,” added the agency.
The country still faces a number of critical issues, including questions as to whether authorities can sustain international market confidence so as to enable domestic banks to smoothly roll over their external borrowings, and in the medium term, whether the government can structurally improve macroeconomic imbalances and gradually reduce external financing needs by improving the investment environment through methods that include alleviating security concerns and accelerating structural reforms before the global monetary easing comes to an end, said JCR.
Moreover, JCR said it would monitor foreign exchange liquidity, the status of domestic banks’ rollover of external borrowings and the balance between short-term external debt and foreign exchange reserves. In terms of financial stability, the ratings agency also said it would look at the corporate sector’s resilience to currency depreciation, including the extent of their hedging coverage, given the growing foreign currency-denominated borrowings in the corporate sector, especially by large companies.
A senior representative from JCR said Turkey had preserved its investable position, opposing the general sentiment following the rating cut by Moody’s, state-run Anadolu Agency reported on Sept. 27.
Moody’s cut Turkey’s long-term issuer and senior unsecured bond ratings by one notch to the speculative or “junk” level of Ba1 with a “stable” outlook late on Sept. 23, citing risks related to the country’s sizeable funding requirements and a slowing in its GDP growth and institutional strength.
JCR Eurasia President Orhan Ökmen noted Turkey’s highly risky position in fulfilling its foreign funding requirements, but stressed that there had been no further deterioration in the field.
Turchia
Si nota un attivismo che porta la Turchia ad avvicinarsi alla Russia.
Questo non è ancora un cambiamento di schieramento, ma preoccupa i mercati quali possano essere le reazioni USA
Primo effetto tensioni sul cambio
Dalla stampa turca articoli di normalizzazione dei rapporti con la Russia o di ricerca di supporto in agenzie di Rating non "americane".
ISTANBUL
Turkey has agreed to sign a joint investment fund with Russia on Sunday, Economy Minister Nihat Zeybekci said.
The $1 billion fund aims to boost relations in many areas such as tourism, energy, agriculture and transport.
Speaking to journalists in Istanbul following meeting with Russian counterpart Alexey Ulyukaev, Zeybekci said: “We have reached a significant level in a free trade agreement between countries.”
The minister added they were working on a free trade agreement.
"We have agreed on signing a historical deal with Russia by the end of 2017," he said.
“The investment fund will be instrumental for business," added Ulyukaev. "There might be some investment in agricultural industry as well, in producing products with high added value."
Diplomatic relations between Turkey and Russia soured following the downing of a Russian warplane that violated Turkish airspace last November, prompting Kremlin to order sanctions on Turkish food products, an end to visa-free travel and a ban on Russian tourists taking package holidays in Turkey.
Relations were normalized this June and July through a letter and subsequent telephone calls between the countries’ leaders. Since then, increasingly Turkey and Russia relations have become normalized and are expected to get higher.
-----
Japan Credit Rating (JCR) has confirmed Turkey’s long-term issuer rating as “BBB-” and its outlook as “stable.”
“The ratings are supported by the country’s largest economic foundation in the Middle East that could be a good export base to the EU and Islamic countries and its sound public and banking sectors’ buffer against shocks,” the rating agency said in a written statement on Oct. 7.
It also noted that Turkey’s domestic banks, the principal borrowers of the country’s external debt, have been managing to roll over their external borrowings well, and may likely benefit from the monetary easing in advanced economies that is expected to continue for some time to come.
“The public and banking sectors maintain their buffer against shocks that they have built in the past. In light of the above, JCR has affirmed its ratings with ‘a stable’ outlook,” added the agency.
The country still faces a number of critical issues, including questions as to whether authorities can sustain international market confidence so as to enable domestic banks to smoothly roll over their external borrowings, and in the medium term, whether the government can structurally improve macroeconomic imbalances and gradually reduce external financing needs by improving the investment environment through methods that include alleviating security concerns and accelerating structural reforms before the global monetary easing comes to an end, said JCR.
Moreover, JCR said it would monitor foreign exchange liquidity, the status of domestic banks’ rollover of external borrowings and the balance between short-term external debt and foreign exchange reserves. In terms of financial stability, the ratings agency also said it would look at the corporate sector’s resilience to currency depreciation, including the extent of their hedging coverage, given the growing foreign currency-denominated borrowings in the corporate sector, especially by large companies.
A senior representative from JCR said Turkey had preserved its investable position, opposing the general sentiment following the rating cut by Moody’s, state-run Anadolu Agency reported on Sept. 27.
Moody’s cut Turkey’s long-term issuer and senior unsecured bond ratings by one notch to the speculative or “junk” level of Ba1 with a “stable” outlook late on Sept. 23, citing risks related to the country’s sizeable funding requirements and a slowing in its GDP growth and institutional strength.
JCR Eurasia President Orhan Ökmen noted Turkey’s highly risky position in fulfilling its foreign funding requirements, but stressed that there had been no further deterioration in the field.
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...scende il rand causa beghe politiche interne
come al solito non ci si annoia
Rand tanks on Gordhan summons news
come al solito non ci si annoia
Rand tanks on Gordhan summons news
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Le accuse contro il Ministro delle Finanze vengono ritirate e lo ZAR ne beneficia, cambia anche l'outlook circa il possibile downgrade sul paese.
SA can still dodge a credit downgrade - analysts
SA can still dodge a credit downgrade - analysts
mistico 77
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capisco il caos politico che adesso c'è in turchia ma non mi spiego
come mai le obbligazioni della repubblica in dollari stanno calando cosi
velocemente
come mai le obbligazioni della repubblica in dollari stanno calando cosi
velocemente
Sig. Ernesto
Vivace Impertinenza
Cosa ne pensate del World Bank in lira turca XS1264244697 ?
E' il caso di iniziare a monitorarlo?
E' il caso di iniziare a monitorarlo?