frankiemachine
Mr. Tentenna
comincio a temere che il reinvestire in TRY sia stata una caz.zata ben più grossa di essere entrato in GM 
Obbligazioni valute high yield TURCHIA bond in usd e lira turca
- Creatore Discussione sentex
- Data di Inizio
Gaudente
Forumer storico
io non so a che prezzo hai in carico GM , ma puoi star certo che alla lunga andranno a zero quindi con una perdita del 100%.
La lira turca potra' essere soggetta all'attacco della speculazione, ma francamente non vedo proprio perche' una valuta con un'inflazione al 7,7% dovrebbe subire un tracollo paragonabile a quello gia' subito e che ancora subira' GM.
La lira turca potra' essere soggetta all'attacco della speculazione, ma francamente non vedo proprio perche' una valuta con un'inflazione al 7,7% dovrebbe subire un tracollo paragonabile a quello gia' subito e che ancora subira' GM.
Gaudente
Forumer storico
Tassi tagliati di 100 punti base
Tasso di sconto al minimo di tutti i tempi, il 10,50%.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ayHAOov8yWBo
Sono curioso di vedere se anche questa volta il rendimento dei bond restera' indifferente al taglio.
Tasso di sconto al minimo di tutti i tempi, il 10,50%.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ayHAOov8yWBo
Sono curioso di vedere se anche questa volta il rendimento dei bond restera' indifferente al taglio.
Giontra
Forumer storico
Sudafrica/ Banca centrale abbassa a 9,5% il tasso di riferimento
di Apcom
Per la terza volta dallo scorso dicembre
Johannesburg, 24 mar. (Apcom) - La Banca centrale sudafricana ha abbassato oggi il suo tasso di riferimento di un punto al 9,5%, per la terza volta consecutiva dallo scorso dicembre, alla luce di un miglioramento dei dati sull'inflazione e della crisi finanziaria mondiale. Il direttore della Banca centrale, Tito Moweni, ha precisato che questo nuovo ribasso, effettivo da domani, è stato deciso "in un contesto di rallentamento dell'economia mondiale e nazionale così come di un miglioramento a medio termine delle prospettive sull'inflazione". "La debolezza della domanda mondiale si riflette sulle esportazioni sudafricane", ha spiegato. La Banca centrale ha ridotto per la prima volta il tasso di riferimento lo scorso dicembre di mezzo punto, per poi tagliarlo ancora di un punto a inizio febbraio. L'istituzione, che si prefigge di contenere l'inflazione tra il 3% e 6%, aveva aumentato il tasso sei volte tra giugno 2007 e dicembre 2008, per tentare di contenere l'aumento dei prezzi, sostenuto dai rincari di petrolio e generi alimentari. Tuttavia, il costo elevato del credito, unito a un'inflazione che riduce il potere di acquisto delle famiglie, ha causato grossi problemi ai singoli e un crollo della vendita delle autovetture. La Banca centrale deve anche tener conto di un netto rallentamento della crescita, dovuto in parte alla crisi mondiale, in parte alla mancanza di infrastrutture e al costo elevato del credito. A partire da settembre, l'inflazione ha cominciato a rallentare dopo il livello record del 13,7% raggiunto ad agosto, il più alto degli ultimi sei anni. A gennaio, il tasso di inflazione annuale era pari all'8,1%. (fonte Afp)
di Apcom
Per la terza volta dallo scorso dicembre
Johannesburg, 24 mar. (Apcom) - La Banca centrale sudafricana ha abbassato oggi il suo tasso di riferimento di un punto al 9,5%, per la terza volta consecutiva dallo scorso dicembre, alla luce di un miglioramento dei dati sull'inflazione e della crisi finanziaria mondiale. Il direttore della Banca centrale, Tito Moweni, ha precisato che questo nuovo ribasso, effettivo da domani, è stato deciso "in un contesto di rallentamento dell'economia mondiale e nazionale così come di un miglioramento a medio termine delle prospettive sull'inflazione". "La debolezza della domanda mondiale si riflette sulle esportazioni sudafricane", ha spiegato. La Banca centrale ha ridotto per la prima volta il tasso di riferimento lo scorso dicembre di mezzo punto, per poi tagliarlo ancora di un punto a inizio febbraio. L'istituzione, che si prefigge di contenere l'inflazione tra il 3% e 6%, aveva aumentato il tasso sei volte tra giugno 2007 e dicembre 2008, per tentare di contenere l'aumento dei prezzi, sostenuto dai rincari di petrolio e generi alimentari. Tuttavia, il costo elevato del credito, unito a un'inflazione che riduce il potere di acquisto delle famiglie, ha causato grossi problemi ai singoli e un crollo della vendita delle autovetture. La Banca centrale deve anche tener conto di un netto rallentamento della crescita, dovuto in parte alla crisi mondiale, in parte alla mancanza di infrastrutture e al costo elevato del credito. A partire da settembre, l'inflazione ha cominciato a rallentare dopo il livello record del 13,7% raggiunto ad agosto, il più alto degli ultimi sei anni. A gennaio, il tasso di inflazione annuale era pari all'8,1%. (fonte Afp)
Gaudente
Forumer storico
Cattive notizie
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aLpF.4lfmK64
I sondaggi pronosticano una nuova vittoria per l'AKP dell'attuale presidente Erdogan, ma lungi dal portare stabilita' cio' ha riacceso le tensioni tra islamici e secolaristi.
Polling Violence
Those tensions may have contributed to violence today. Six people died and about 90 people were injured in gunfights and brawls related to the polling, the CNN Turk news channel reported on its Web site. Violence broke out in the eastern provinces of Sanliurfa, Kars, Diyarbakir and Van.
Ai tafferugli elettorali si aggiunge il braccio di ferro tra Erdogan e la magistratura, Erdogan intende infatti far eleggere dal parlamento dei nuovi giudici costuituzionali nonche' rendere non epurabili gli ufficiali dell'esercito filo islamici.
Erdogan told reporters on March 13 that he plans to introduce measures after the election to change the structure of Turkey’s 11-member Constitutional Court and make it harder to ban political parties. He didn’t give further details.
The steps may allow parliament to nominate additional judges to the court and increase judicial scrutiny over the army’s budget and its regular purges of officers deemed pro- Islamist, Hurriyet Daily News reported on March 18, citing a Justice party draft document.
L'articolo si chiude con la raggelante previsione di un crollo del PIL del 10% nel primo trimestre 2009
Economy Suffers
Industrial output plunged 21 percent in January as Europeans stopped buying Turkish-made cars and televisions, and unemployment surged to 13.6 percent. The economy, in recession for the first time since 2001, probably shrank at least 10 percent in the first quarter of 2009, UBS AG said in a March 24 report.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aLpF.4lfmK64
I sondaggi pronosticano una nuova vittoria per l'AKP dell'attuale presidente Erdogan, ma lungi dal portare stabilita' cio' ha riacceso le tensioni tra islamici e secolaristi.
Polling Violence
Those tensions may have contributed to violence today. Six people died and about 90 people were injured in gunfights and brawls related to the polling, the CNN Turk news channel reported on its Web site. Violence broke out in the eastern provinces of Sanliurfa, Kars, Diyarbakir and Van.
Ai tafferugli elettorali si aggiunge il braccio di ferro tra Erdogan e la magistratura, Erdogan intende infatti far eleggere dal parlamento dei nuovi giudici costuituzionali nonche' rendere non epurabili gli ufficiali dell'esercito filo islamici.
Erdogan told reporters on March 13 that he plans to introduce measures after the election to change the structure of Turkey’s 11-member Constitutional Court and make it harder to ban political parties. He didn’t give further details.
The steps may allow parliament to nominate additional judges to the court and increase judicial scrutiny over the army’s budget and its regular purges of officers deemed pro- Islamist, Hurriyet Daily News reported on March 18, citing a Justice party draft document.
L'articolo si chiude con la raggelante previsione di un crollo del PIL del 10% nel primo trimestre 2009
Economy Suffers
Industrial output plunged 21 percent in January as Europeans stopped buying Turkish-made cars and televisions, and unemployment surged to 13.6 percent. The economy, in recession for the first time since 2001, probably shrank at least 10 percent in the first quarter of 2009, UBS AG said in a March 24 report.
slowdown
Forumer storico
EMERGING MARKETS REPORT
Forint tumbles as S&P cuts Hungary's credit rating
Economy Minister Gordon Bajnai is likely to become the next prime minister
By Polya Lesova, MarketWatch
Last update: 2:58 p.m. EDT March 30, 2009
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The forint fell sharply Monday after Standard & Poor's Ratings Services lowered Hungary's credit rating, citing the economic deterioration in the crisis-hit Eastern European country and warning that the rating could be cut further to below investment grade.
S&P cut Hungary's long-term foreign and local currency credit ratings from BBB to BBB-, which is the lowest investment grade level.
The ratings outlook for Hungary is negative, indicating that another downgrade is likely, which would put the ratings in junk territory, or below investment grade.
Following the rating cut, the Hungarian forint fell 2% against the euro and tumbled 3% against the U.S. dollar. In Budapest, the benchmark stock index dropped 2.6%.
"Just like they missed the mark with regards to subprime, so too did these agencies overrate many of the weaker EM [emerging markets] credits -- was Iceland really AAA?" said Win Thin, senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co.
"We think junk status is in the cards shortly for Hungary, and to reiterate our rather frank view, most of these EMEA [Europe, Middle East and Africa] credits really never deserved to be investment grade in the first place," Thin said in a research note.
There are also severe downgrade risks for the Baltic and Balkan countries, he said.
A new prime minister?
Hungary, a member of the European Union since 2004, has been battered by a severe economic crisis. Last November, the country received a $25 billion financing package from several multinational institutions, including the International Monetary Fund and the E.U.
Despite the external financial support, economic turmoil in Hungary has continued, causing Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany to say last week that he would resign, giving his Socialist Party an opportunity to find a new candidate to form a government.
Just as S&P cut Hungary's rating on Monday, there were some positive news on the political front, indicating that the recent deadlock may have been overcome.
In Budapest, the ruling parties approved the nomination of Economy Minister Gordon Bajnai to become the next prime minister, replacing Gyurcsany, AFP reported Monday.
The Socialists and the Liberals, which together have a parliamentary majority, finally agreed on the candidacy of Bajnai, who is a technocrat and has no political affiliation, the report said. Bajnai's nomination needs to be confirmed by parliament in a vote scheduled for April 14.
Bajnai is "a close associate and friend of Gyurcsany, and he will likely make a concerted push to get fiscal reforms back on track," said Preston Keat, an analyst at Eurasia Group.
'Reacted with venom'
S&P expects the Hungarian economy to contract by 6% in 2009, roughly double the IMF target. As a result, it will be hard to achieve the revised general government deficit target of 2.9% of GDP for this year, the agency said.
"The downgrade reflects the ongoing deterioration in key Hungarian economic and fiscal indicators," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Kai Stukenbrock.
"Pressure on public finances continues to mount as revenues fall short, the government debt ratio mounts, and the risk of financial sector contingent liabilities materializing increases," Stukenbrock said in a statement. "The International Monetary Fund/E.U. program provides significant, yet finite support for government funding."
S&P said it expects nonperforming loans to rise, driven by both the weakening economy and
the depreciated currency, with about one-half of domestic credit denominated in foreign currency.
"Markets have predictably reacted with venom on S&P's move," said Timothy Ash, head of CEEMEA research at Royal Bank of Scotland. "I assume that they had expected the rating agencies to give Bajnai some time to adjust/assess his program before acting."
In addition to the sell-off in the forint, Hungary's five-year credit default swap spreads widened sharply following the rating downgrade, signaling that investors see a greater risk of sovereign debt default.
"The credit-crunch is only just rolling through the region, and has a long way to go still," Ash said. "The sheer extent of the impact on trade, and the real economy of the region, is so extreme that it seems inevitable that the ratings agencies will follow through with a flurry of downgrades, as corporate failures/strains feed into banks, and back to the real economy and back to public finances."
Polya Lesova is a New York-based reporter for MarketWatch.
Forint tumbles as S&P cuts Hungary's credit rating
Economy Minister Gordon Bajnai is likely to become the next prime minister
By Polya Lesova, MarketWatch
Last update: 2:58 p.m. EDT March 30, 2009
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The forint fell sharply Monday after Standard & Poor's Ratings Services lowered Hungary's credit rating, citing the economic deterioration in the crisis-hit Eastern European country and warning that the rating could be cut further to below investment grade.
S&P cut Hungary's long-term foreign and local currency credit ratings from BBB to BBB-, which is the lowest investment grade level.
The ratings outlook for Hungary is negative, indicating that another downgrade is likely, which would put the ratings in junk territory, or below investment grade.
Following the rating cut, the Hungarian forint fell 2% against the euro and tumbled 3% against the U.S. dollar. In Budapest, the benchmark stock index dropped 2.6%.
"Just like they missed the mark with regards to subprime, so too did these agencies overrate many of the weaker EM [emerging markets] credits -- was Iceland really AAA?" said Win Thin, senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co.
"We think junk status is in the cards shortly for Hungary, and to reiterate our rather frank view, most of these EMEA [Europe, Middle East and Africa] credits really never deserved to be investment grade in the first place," Thin said in a research note.
There are also severe downgrade risks for the Baltic and Balkan countries, he said.
A new prime minister?
Hungary, a member of the European Union since 2004, has been battered by a severe economic crisis. Last November, the country received a $25 billion financing package from several multinational institutions, including the International Monetary Fund and the E.U.
Despite the external financial support, economic turmoil in Hungary has continued, causing Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany to say last week that he would resign, giving his Socialist Party an opportunity to find a new candidate to form a government.
Just as S&P cut Hungary's rating on Monday, there were some positive news on the political front, indicating that the recent deadlock may have been overcome.
In Budapest, the ruling parties approved the nomination of Economy Minister Gordon Bajnai to become the next prime minister, replacing Gyurcsany, AFP reported Monday.
The Socialists and the Liberals, which together have a parliamentary majority, finally agreed on the candidacy of Bajnai, who is a technocrat and has no political affiliation, the report said. Bajnai's nomination needs to be confirmed by parliament in a vote scheduled for April 14.
Bajnai is "a close associate and friend of Gyurcsany, and he will likely make a concerted push to get fiscal reforms back on track," said Preston Keat, an analyst at Eurasia Group.
'Reacted with venom'
S&P expects the Hungarian economy to contract by 6% in 2009, roughly double the IMF target. As a result, it will be hard to achieve the revised general government deficit target of 2.9% of GDP for this year, the agency said.
"The downgrade reflects the ongoing deterioration in key Hungarian economic and fiscal indicators," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Kai Stukenbrock.
"Pressure on public finances continues to mount as revenues fall short, the government debt ratio mounts, and the risk of financial sector contingent liabilities materializing increases," Stukenbrock said in a statement. "The International Monetary Fund/E.U. program provides significant, yet finite support for government funding."
S&P said it expects nonperforming loans to rise, driven by both the weakening economy and
the depreciated currency, with about one-half of domestic credit denominated in foreign currency.
"Markets have predictably reacted with venom on S&P's move," said Timothy Ash, head of CEEMEA research at Royal Bank of Scotland. "I assume that they had expected the rating agencies to give Bajnai some time to adjust/assess his program before acting."
In addition to the sell-off in the forint, Hungary's five-year credit default swap spreads widened sharply following the rating downgrade, signaling that investors see a greater risk of sovereign debt default.
"The credit-crunch is only just rolling through the region, and has a long way to go still," Ash said. "The sheer extent of the impact on trade, and the real economy of the region, is so extreme that it seems inevitable that the ratings agencies will follow through with a flurry of downgrades, as corporate failures/strains feed into banks, and back to the real economy and back to public finances."
Polya Lesova is a New York-based reporter for MarketWatch.
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