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Zorba

Bos 4 Mod
AIB - CAPITAL UPDATE


30th March 2010
18:05

Overview of Capital Requirements
As part of the Financial Regulator's assessment of the Irish banking sector's capital requirements it has determined that the targeted equity tier 1 capital ratio for AIB, in common with other institutions, will be 7%. For core tier 1 capital (which includes the Government preference shares), the target will be 8%. The total amount of additional equity capital that the Financial Regulator requires AIB to raise to meet the equity target is €7.4bn. The capital required to meet the core tier 1 target is €4.8bn. It is expected that these amounts will be significantly reduced by capital actions we are taking. The Financial Regulator’s capital requirement is to be met by 31st December 2010.


The strong capital ratios for AIB include an assumed effect of NAMA on our capital base and also incorporate a prudential buffer of c. €1.1bn as requested by the Financial Regulator. This is also after recognising our existing aggregate bad debt provision expectations in 2010, 2011 and 2012. The total capital requirement equates to a targeted equity capital ratio of 7% at the trough of the current cycle or c. 8% without taking into account the buffer.
We expect that the finalised level of equity capital will ensure a high degree of confidence amongst all stakeholders as to the bank’s resilience.
NAMA
A draft of the list of loans and their values transferring to NAMA (the draft loan acquisition schedules) for the first tranche of 10 customers, accounting for c. €3.3bn of loans were submitted by NAMA for review by the bank 3 days ago. This review is continuing. The NAMA discount on transfer indicated by these draft schedules is c. 43% on the first tranche. We note the Financial Regulator’s statement today that at this time he has assumed, for capital planning purposes, the same discount rate to the overall portfolio of NAMA eligible loans as applied to the first tranche. Credit institutions may apply to the Financial Regulator, up to the 30th June 2010, to revise down their capital requirement in the event of
  1. the discount rate for subsequent tranches being lower than for the first tranche and / or
  2. the quantum of loans to be transferred to NAMA being lower than now estimated.
In relation to this aspect of NAMA’s statement, the following points should be noted in particular
  1. As the NAMA process entails a loan by loan exercise, the discount on the loans for the first 10 customers may prove in due course not to represent an accurate discount for the overall portfolio.
  2. The quantum of loans estimated to transfer to NAMA is c. €23bn for AIB. On the expected sale of our UK business it is our intention to review with NAMA the quantum of UK based NAMA loans that would transfer. The amount that could be subject to this review is c. €1.5bn. Any change to that quantum of NAMA transferred loans would be subject to the consent of NAMA.
When further valuation work by the bank and NAMA is sufficiently advanced we will advise the market of any material change in expectation.
Bad Debt Provisions
We have carried out a detailed assessment of the bad debt provision charge expected, excluding the already mentioned effect of NAMA transfers. Over the three year period of 2010 to 2012 we have assessed a provision requirement, done by individual portfolio and division. The Financial Regulator has requested the inclusion of further prudential buffers for the Irish banking sector and for AIB this buffer is €1.1bn.
Capital Actions - Self-Help
As we announced earlier this month at our preliminary results we have a range of significant self-help options available to us. We have already successfully undertaken a bond exchange exercise generating approximately €445m of equity capital. We are now actioning additional self-help options, in particular, asset and business disposals. AIB will receive full credit from the Financial Regulator for disposals which have been agreed at year end but may be awaiting regulatory approvals prior to completion.
The distinct assets that we plan to sell principally comprise our UK business, our interest in BZWBK and our interest in M&T. We have appointed AIB Corporate Finance and Morgan Stanley in relation to the sale of BZWBK and our interest in M&T, and AIB Corporate Finance in relation to the sale of our UK business. We currently expect the aggregate proceeds from those sales, based on today’s market conditions, to exceed market estimates and meet a substantial part of our overall need for capital.
Capital Actions - Equity Raising
We will undertake an equity capital raising prior to the end of 2010 to fulfil the remaining capital requirement following disposals and other actions to that time. Our current intentions are to have an equity issue targeted at private shareholders, that would be underwritten by international investment banks or the Government, with any residual requirement met by a conversion of Government preference shares into ordinary shares. The structure, timing and terms of the this equity raising are to be further considered in conjunction with the Government. In doing so, AIB intends to respect pre-emption rights of existing shareholders in any capital raising.
We note the statement by the Minister for Finance that the Government remains committed to providing equity capital if required. We recognise and are grateful for the significant support that has been provided by the Irish taxpayer over the last 18 months.

Further update announcements will be made in due course.
-Ends-
For further information, please contact:
Alan Kelly
General Manager, Corporate Services
AIB Group
Bankcentre
Ballsbridge
Dublin 4
Tel: +353-1-6600311 Ext: 12162
or
Catherine Burke
Head of Corporate Relations & Communications
AIB Group
Bankcentre
Ballsbridge
Dublin 4
Tel: +353-1-6600311 Ext: 13894

Morgan Stanley & Co. Limited is acting as financial adviser to AIB and no one else in connection with the aforementioned planned disposal of its interests in M&T and BZWBK and will not be responsible to anyone other than AIB for providing the protections afforded to the clients of Morgan Stanley & Co. Limited nor for providing advice in relation to the planned disposal of its interests in M&T and BZWBK, the contents of this announcement or any other matter referred to herein.

AIB Corporate Finance Limited is acting as financial adviser to AIB and no one else in connection with the aforementioned planned disposal of its interests in M&T, BZWBK and AIB’s UK business and will not be responsible to anyone other than AIB for providing the protections afforded to the clients of AIB Corporate Finance Limited nor for providing advice in relation to the planned disposal of its interests in M&T, BZWBK, and AIB’s UK business, the contents of this announcement or any other matter referred to herein.
 

Mais78

BAWAG fan club
Dresdner

[FONT=&quot]Moody's upgrades hybrids of Dresdner Funding Trust IV to A1[/FONT][FONT=&quot]
[/FONT][FONT=&quot]MOODPR0020100330e63u000m9[/FONT][FONT=&quot]
1468 Words
30 March 2010
Moody's Investors Service Press Release
moodpr
English
(c) 2010[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Moody's Investors Service has today upgraded the JPY15 billion certificates issued by Dresdner Funding Trust IV to A1 from Baa3, following a restructuring of the terms and conditions of this instrument by Commerzbank AG (Dresdner Bank AG was merged with Commerzbank AG in 2009). The earlier coupon deferral triggers (a 4% Tier 1 capital ratio and a 8% total capital ratio) have been removed and the ranking in liquidation changed from Tier 1 to subordinated debt; the instrument thus now ranks pari passu with Lower Tier 2 securities and senior to the Commerzbank hybrids. The outlook on the A1 rating is negative, which is in line with the outlook on the A1 rating of Commerzbank's other senior subordinated debt.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Rationale for the restructuring: to de-activate pusher feature of other Tier 1 instruments[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]It is Moody's understanding that the rationale for the restructuring of the instrument was to de-activate the pusher feature that is included in the contractual agreements of certain other hybrid instruments of Commerzbank group, in particular the three consolidated trusts: Commerzbank Capital Funding I, II, and III. These trust securities have junior and parity security pushers, which require coupon payments to be made if coupon payments are made on junior or parity securities. In hybrid parlance, coupon payments made on junior or parity securities "push" coupon payments on Commerzbank's Tier 1 trust securities.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]In the context of Commerzbank, one such parity security is the hybrid issued by Dresdner Funding Trust IV where Moody's had expected coupon payments to be made because the weak regulatory capital triggers were unlikely to be breached. De-activation of the pusher feature allows Commerzbank to skip coupons on its Tier 1 securities, in line with the agreement reached with the European Commission to impose losses on hybrid bond holders during loss-making years as far as legally and contractually justified.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]A1 ratings in line with Commerzbank's senior subordinated debt ratings[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]With these amendments, the risk profile of Dresdner's Funding Trust IV Dated Silent Partnership Certificates changed to one that is consistent with Lower Tier 2 securities or "plain vanilla" subordinated debt that does not have any coupon skip mechanisms. The changes are positive to holders of this Dresdner hybrid instrument.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]RATING HISTORY AND MOODY'S METHODOLOGIES[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]The last rating action on Commerzbank was on 18 February 2010, when Moody's downgraded its rating for Tier III instruments under the multiple-seniority Medium Term Notes (MTN) Programme of Commerzbank AG to A2 from A1, in line with the rating agency's revised "Guidelines for Rating Bank Hybrids and Subordinated Debt", published in November 2009.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]The principal methodologies used in rating Commerzbank were "Moody's Bank Financial Strength Ratings: Global Methodology", published in February 2007, "Incorporation of Joint-Default Analysis into Moody's Bank Ratings", published in March 2007, and "Moody's Guidelines for Rating Bank Hybrid Securities and Subordinated Debt", published in November 2009, which are available on www.moodys.com in the Rating Methodologies sub-directory under the Research & Ratings tab. Other methodologies and factors that may have been considered in the process of rating this issuer can also be found in the Rating Methodologies sub-directory on Moody's website.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Domiciled in Frankfurt, Germany, Commerzbank reported total assets of EUR844 billion as of the end of December 2009 and a net loss of EUR4.5 billion for the year 2009.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot][/FONT]
 

Zorba

Bos 4 Mod
Lt2 di anglo irish

Mi sono ciucciato tutto il discorso del ministro delle finanze irlandese.
In sintesi:
- BOI è quella messa meglio, deve incrementare il proprio capitale (non di molto), anche ricorrendo al mercato; lo stato interverrà solo se necessario.
- AIB: deve raccimolare molto più capitale di BOI. A tal fine, deve vendere tutte le controllate overseas entro fine anno e può ricorrere al private sector per raccogliere fondi. Se tutto questo non dovesse bastare, lo stato colma il GAP. L'ottima notizia è che non viene nazionalizzata.
- Anglo Irish: è il caso più critico. Il ministro ha detto chiaramente che non sarà nè liquidata immediatamente nè tramite una long term winding up, in quanto troppo onerose per lo stato. Anglo Irish rimarrà in vita, cederà assets a NAMA e riceverà capitali dallo stato. Rimane da valutare lo split della banca. Credo che sia questo il punto importante per i debiti subordinati di Anglo Irish.

Durante il discorso del ministro delle finanze irlandese, ho incrementato BOI a 6,80 e AIB a 3,57.:eek::eek:

Ho appena finito di scrivere e mi sa che posso anche rivendere già qualcosina...:D

Questo è il link al parlamento irlandese. Mi sa che ci conviene leggerci bene il transcript di oggi quando sarà reso pubblico...

Díospóireachtaí Thithe an Oireachtais - Houses of the Oireachtas

Il Ministro delle finanze irlandese ha tuonato più volte che Anglo Irish non verrà liquidata. Se così fosse, forse le LT2 dovrebbero essere pagate regolarmente. In caso di mancato pagamento degli interessi o del principal sulle LT2, dovrebbe scattare la liquidazione di Anglo Irish (che il Ministro ha detto di voler evitare a tutti i costi, in quanto troppo onerosa).

Parliamo di una cosa molto rischiosa (PURA MUNNEZZA). Credo però che valga la pena di essere approfondita, in quanto le LT2 di Anglo-Irish quotano intorno a 35. Le LT2 di Depfa credo siano intorno a 70...:eek::eek:

http://www.ariva.de/XS0305277807
 

Metriko

Forumer attivo
Sì, mi piace ! finalmente vediamo i ct :)
(tanto per farsi un'idea, eccheccapperi :) )

qui c'è il mio, nato qui ....
(ultimissimo arrivato, Intesa .... comprato oggi .... indovinate perchè ... :D )

p.s. ego sum cassettaro ad HOC
p.p.s. dimenticavo : per chi era presente sabato : ricordate che avevo detto che la mia banca NON voleva comprarmi le Intesa xchè di 'nuova' emissione ? ... va bè, applicando alcuni dei metodi di persuasione di cui si è parlato sabato alla fine la banca mi ha concesso di acquistarle ! :D
wartburg ciao

potresti descrivere questi metodi di persuasione , che potrebbero essermi utile :lol: ?

Grazie :D
 

Wallygo

Forumer storico
Il Ministro delle finanze irlandese ha tuonato più volte che Anglo Irish non verrà liquidata. Se così fosse, forse le LT2 dovrebbero essere pagate regolarmente. In caso di mancato pagamento degli interessi o del principal sulle LT2, dovrebbe scattare la liquidazione di Anglo Irish (che il Ministro ha detto di voler evitare a tutti i costi, in quanto troppo onerosa).

Parliamo di una cosa molto rischiosa (PURA MUNNEZZA). Credo però che valga la pena di essere approfondita, in quanto le LT2 di Anglo-Irish quotano intorno a 35. Le LT2 di Depfa credo siano intorno a 70...:eek::eek:

ANGLO IRISH BK07/17FLRMTN (WKN A0NXBN, ISIN XS0305277807) - Profil - Aktien, Aktienkurse - ARIVA.DE

Ottima considerazione ! tale ragionamento l ho fatto a ott 09 e ho comprato a 42!:D

E' mia ferma intenzione raddoppiare esposizione aspetto dettagli piano bad bank da commissione europea congiuntamente ad ANGLO x per entrare con decisione! ..... analogie con Bradford & Bingley non ne trovo .... E VOI????
 

nochicco

Forumer attivo
Ti ringrazio

Il tuo ragionamento e' sacrosanto, ed i rischi che citi sono assolutamante presenti.
L' unica cosa che aggiungerei e' che questo forum, integrato con le tue riflessioni ed i tuoi studi ti da la possibilita' di comprendere i rischi e le oppirtunita' a cui vai incontro. E pertanto di fare una scelta consapevole

P.S. Non comprare mai una cosa solo perche' lo fanno gli altri

Ciao
certamente infatti io coi perpetual ci vado coi piedi di piombo anche se con quella che ho comparato a 68 ora quota circa 80 dopo pochi mesi .....pero' ho visto che qui c'e' gente che ne ha in portafoglio una decina questo mi ha meravigliato tutto qui.....:up:.
 
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