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S&P Lowers CNP Assurances To 'AA-'; Outlook Stable
Reuters - 29/09/2009 18:09:54
-- We consider that France-based insurer CNP is unlikely to improve its capital adequacy to levels consistent with a rating in the 'AA' category over the next two years.
-- We are lowering our ratings on CNP to 'AA-' from 'AA'.
-- The stable outlook reflects our expectations that CNP's competitive position in the French life insurance market will remain very strong and earnings will remain solid.
-- The rating includes one notch of support because an 'AAA' rated government-related entity is the largest shareholder of CNP.
PARIS (Standard & Poor's) Sept. 29, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it has lowered its long-term counterparty and insurer financial strength ratings on CNP Assurances to 'AA-' from 'AA'. The outlook is stable. At the same time, the ratings on CNP's guarantee subsidiary CNP Caution were lowered to AA- from AA.
"The downgrade reflects our assessment of CNP's weakened stand-alone financial profile, with capital adequacy that remains inconsistent with the current ratings," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Virginie Crepy.
We continue to factor into the ratings one notch of implicit support from CNP's largest shareholder and government-related entity Caisse des Depots et Consignations (AAA/Stable/A-1+). This primarily reflects the application of our group methodology. We believe CDC remains supportive toward CNP, as evidenced by its increased stake in CNP to 40% from 36% as recently as in 2007. CNP also remains a key contributor to CDC's earnings, since it represented 18% of CDC's revenues and 35% of its recurring net income in 2008. Furthermore, we believe that CDC or ultimately the French government may provide capital or liquidity support if CNP needs it.
The stable outlook reflects our belief that CNP will likely continue to maintain a very strong competitive position in the French life insurance market. The group remains well positioned to capitalize on long-term growth opportunities in the French market. CNP's underlying earnings should remain strong, but we expect continued pressure for 2009, stemming from its still-unfavorable business mix in France, the impact of reduced up-front fees in the first half of 2009, lower growth prospects in creditor term life business, and still highly volatile investment results. We therefore expect CNP's new business margins to deteriorate in 2009 from 2008, although we don't expect they will fall below 9.5%.
CNP should also benefit from the recent recovery in the financial markets, which is likely to have a positive impact on the trading portfolio and materially reduce asset impairments. We consider CNP's indication of EUR1 billion in net income for 2009 as achievable. We do not expect CNP to make any acquisitions involving significant capital expenditures, which could cause capital adequacy to fall below the current level.
A revision of the outlook to positive is unlikely over the next two years. Conversely, we could revise the outlook to negative if CNP's financial profile further deteriorates, for example through worsening capital adequacy or a deterioration in underlying earnings beyond our expectations, with a new business margin of less than 9.5% in 2009.