Ultima Markets Daily Insights - Forex, indici, economia e politica

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Relief rally as shutdown ends – stocks and cryptocurrencies rise as risk-on sentiment returns

US shutdown: relief rally in full swing​

Optimism continues to grow in financial markets, as investors bet on an imminent reopening of the U.S. government. The prospect of a political solution has triggered a sharp rebound in stocks, commodities, and cryptocurrencies.

Shutdown Update​

According to the latest news, the US Congress is close to a provisional budget agreement to end the shutdown and resume the publication of economic data. Although it has not yet been definitively approved, the possibility of a prolonged shutdown is now considered remote.

Impact on markets​

• US futures rose sharply in the Asian session.
• The S&P 500 rose 1.1%, the Nasdaq 100 rose 1.3%.
• Asian markets also moved higher, with strong demand in the technology and financial sectors.

Optimism about an imminent deal also supported commodities, with traders bracing for a potential improvement in production and employment data.

Data situation​

Despite the enthusiasm, the market remains cautious. Analysts expect upcoming economic reports to be released irregularly and with delays. Key data such as non-farm payrolls, retail sales, and inflation could be released in staggered fashion, generating greater volatility in expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate hike.

Cryptocurrencies: Strong technical signs of recovery​

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) surged above $112,000 during the Asian session, buoyed by a return to risk-on sentiment and momentum in the tech sector.

BTCUSD, Daily Chart | Source: Ultima Markets MT5


The price has formed solid technical support in the USD 109,000–110,000 area, with momentum indicators suggesting an extension of the uptrend.

BTCUSD, H4 Chart | Source: Ultima Markets MT5

Ethereum (ETH/USD) rose to $3,780, remaining well supported above $3,700. If the current trend continues, the next technical target is near $3,850.

ETHUSD, H4 Chart | Source: Ultima Market MT5

US Dollar and Treasuries​

The dollar index (DXY) remained below 100 as investors shifted capital into riskier assets. U.S. Treasuries saw a slight sell-off, with yields rising slightly.

• 10-Year Treasury: 4.27%, up from 4.23%.
• Short-term rates remain unchanged, a sign that the Fed is maintaining a cautious approach.

Perspectives​

• The government's official announcement of its reopening could further support positive sentiment.
• Attention remains on US data, which will likely influence the Fed meeting in December.
• Investors remain optimistic but cautious, with risk appetite increasing in the short term.

Discussion​

• Is this the beginning of a lasting “risk-on” phase?
• Can Bitcoin Hold Above $110,000 as Economic Data Returns?
• Will the dollar continue to weaken in the short term?