Ultima Markets Daily Insights - Forex, indici, economia e politica

[Ultima Markets Italia]

Relief rally as shutdown ends – stocks and cryptocurrencies rise as risk-on sentiment returns

US shutdown: relief rally in full swing​

Optimism continues to grow in financial markets, as investors bet on an imminent reopening of the U.S. government. The prospect of a political solution has triggered a sharp rebound in stocks, commodities, and cryptocurrencies.

Shutdown Update​

According to the latest news, the US Congress is close to a provisional budget agreement to end the shutdown and resume the publication of economic data. Although it has not yet been definitively approved, the possibility of a prolonged shutdown is now considered remote.

Impact on markets​

• US futures rose sharply in the Asian session.
• The S&P 500 rose 1.1%, the Nasdaq 100 rose 1.3%.
• Asian markets also moved higher, with strong demand in the technology and financial sectors.

Optimism about an imminent deal also supported commodities, with traders bracing for a potential improvement in production and employment data.

Data situation​

Despite the enthusiasm, the market remains cautious. Analysts expect upcoming economic reports to be released irregularly and with delays. Key data such as non-farm payrolls, retail sales, and inflation could be released in staggered fashion, generating greater volatility in expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate hike.

Cryptocurrencies: Strong technical signs of recovery​

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) surged above $112,000 during the Asian session, buoyed by a return to risk-on sentiment and momentum in the tech sector.

BTCUSD, Daily Chart | Source: Ultima Markets MT5


The price has formed solid technical support in the USD 109,000–110,000 area, with momentum indicators suggesting an extension of the uptrend.

BTCUSD, H4 Chart | Source: Ultima Markets MT5

Ethereum (ETH/USD) rose to $3,780, remaining well supported above $3,700. If the current trend continues, the next technical target is near $3,850.

ETHUSD, H4 Chart | Source: Ultima Market MT5

US Dollar and Treasuries​

The dollar index (DXY) remained below 100 as investors shifted capital into riskier assets. U.S. Treasuries saw a slight sell-off, with yields rising slightly.

• 10-Year Treasury: 4.27%, up from 4.23%.
• Short-term rates remain unchanged, a sign that the Fed is maintaining a cautious approach.

Perspectives​

• The government's official announcement of its reopening could further support positive sentiment.
• Attention remains on US data, which will likely influence the Fed meeting in December.
• Investors remain optimistic but cautious, with risk appetite increasing in the short term.

Discussion​

• Is this the beginning of a lasting “risk-on” phase?
• Can Bitcoin Hold Above $110,000 as Economic Data Returns?
• Will the dollar continue to weaken in the short term?

 

[Ultima Markets Italia]

Shutdown End Nears: Dollar Awaits Breakout as Economic Data Avalanche Arrives

Shutdown ends: sentiment is positive, eyes on the data​

Investors are starting the week optimistically, as the US government shutdown appears nearing its end. With the resumption of public activities and the release of pending economic data, risk appetite is visibly growing.

• Stocks continue to rise, led by the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.
• Yields stabilize as the US dollar remains awaiting a technical breakout.
• Gold remains above $3,950, with investors positioning themselves for upcoming macro data.

USDX, H4 Chart | Source: Ultima Markets MT5

The coming “data avalanche”: what to expect​

As the shutdown ends, the market is preparing for a wave of releases:

• Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), Inflation (CPI), and Retail Sales will finally be released.
• Analysts expect increased volatility, with traders ready to react to data that has been piling up for weeks.
• The Federal Reserve's next moves will depend heavily on these statistics.

Key point: The market is eagerly awaiting clear signals about the strength of the U.S. economy after weeks of silence.

Forex Technical Analysis: Dollar and Major Crosses​

US Dollar Index (USDX)
Consolidates just below the 100.00 level.

• Resistance: 100.50
• Support: 99.20
  A break above 100.50 would open room for a bullish acceleration.

USDX, H4 Chart | Source: Ultima Markets MT5

EUR/USD
The exchange rate remains between 1.0800 and 1.0890.
A breakout above 1.0900 could push towards 1.0950, while below 1.0800, 1.0750 is eyeing support.

EURUSD, H4 Chart | Source: Ultima Markets MT5

GBP/USD:
The pound remains sensitive to market sentiment and expectations of a possible rate cut by the Bank of England.
Main support is at 1.3000 and resistance at 1.3150.

GBPUSD, Daily Chart | Source: Ultima Markets MT5

Summary and operational strategies​

• Bullish scenario: A break of the DXY above 100.50 would favor dollar strength.
• Bearish scenario: Disappointing data could reinforce risk aversion.
• Strategy: Monitor DXY and EUR/USD for short-term trading opportunities.

Discussion​

• Will the return of US data push the dollar higher or lower?
• Is it better to anticipate the breakout or wait for confirmation of the movement?

 

[Ultima Markets Italia]

Shutdown ends: markets brace for data avalanche, dollar stabilizes, gold accelerates

US Shutdown Over: Market Turns to Backlog Data
The US government shutdown has officially ended, and markets are now preparing for the release of a long series of pending data. The reactivation of federal agencies means key reports such as NFP, CPI, PPI, and retail sales will soon return.

Stock markets reacted positively. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures rose slightly. The dollar stabilized, while gold posted a strong upward move.

Data as a test for the Federal Reserve
The upcoming releases will allow traders to understand whether the US economy is still holding up or if it is starting to lose strength.

The inflation reading will be crucial.
A strong CPI could delay any rate cuts.
A weak CPI would increase the likelihood of a more accommodative policy.

Uncertainty about the Fed is growing.
Analysts believe the Fed will continue to be highly data-dependent. The market is already pricing in at least two rate cuts for next year, but expectations could shift rapidly in the coming weeks.

Technical Analysis: Forex and Gold

Dollar Index (USDX)
The dollar remains range-bound between 99.00 and 100.00.

USDX, Daily Chart | Source: Ultima Markets MT5

USD/JPY
The yen remains weak, with carry trades still favored. As long as USD/JPY stays above 152.00, the bias remains bullish.

USD/JPY, 4-Hour Chart | Source: Ultima Markets MT5

Gold (XAU/USD)
continues its rally, breaking above $4,150. The next major resistance is at $4,200.

XAUUSD, Daily Chart | Source: Ultima Markets MT5

Key Points:
Markets are welcoming the end of the shutdown with cautious optimism.
Gold remains strong thanks to safe-haven demand.
The dollar is close to a breakout, which could come with the new data.

Discussion:
Which upcoming data will have the biggest impact on markets?
Will gold break $4,200?
Will USD/JPY hold above $152.00 as volatility increases?

 

[Ultima Markets Italia]

Global sell-off: AI valuation concerns, a more hawkish Fed, and a liquidity shock


Market Overview: Risk Assets Collapse
Sharp global sell-off,
triggered by fears of overvaluation in the artificial intelligence sector and a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve.

The S&P 500 fell 1.7 percent.
The Nasdaq fell 2.4 percent.

Fed Watch:
The probability of a rate cut in December has dropped to 51 percent,
down from 92 percent previously.
Monetary policy uncertainty is growing.

Cryptocurrencies: Liquidity Tightness
Cryptocurrencies are suffering heavier losses than stocks.
Tighter liquidity and diminished expectations of Fed cuts are amplifying the corrections.

Bitcoin (BTC)
slips below $100,000.
Its lowest level since May.
The technical bias shifts to bearishness.
Key support: $95,000.

BTCUSD, Daily Chart | Source: Ultima Market MT5

Ethereum (ETH)
is down 8 percent at $3,167.
Technical support to watch: $3,000.

Stock Technique: Nasdaq at Risk
Nasdaq 100 (NAS100)
The long-term uptrend remains intact,
but recent failed rebound attempts signal a loss of momentum.

Key Support: 25,000
A break would open room for a deeper and faster correction.

NAS100, Daily Chart | Source: Ultima Market MT5

Sentiment and Market Outlook:
Risk assets remain fragile.
Stocks and cryptocurrencies remain vulnerable to further declines if sentiment deteriorates.

Friday's session will be crucial.
It will set the tone for next week.
Watch out for volatility and technical breakouts.

Discussion:
Are you looking for buying opportunities on further weakness, or do you prefer to remain defensive?
Is the hawkish Fed a lasting obstacle, or could sentiment recover quickly?
Which support levels do you consider most important for your strategy?


Share your thoughts or strategies below.

 

[Ultima Markets Italia]

Political pause and valuation concerns: markets turn defensive


Fed Policy: Hopes for Easing Fade, Hawkish Rhetoric Rises
. The probability of a rate cut plummets.
The likelihood of a rate cut in December falls to about 50 percent (from 95 percent a month ago).

More hawkish comments from the Fed, such as those from the Cleveland Fed's Hammack (“No clear need for further easing”), fuel a defensive mood.

Implication:
Less monetary stimulus = more pressure on risky assets and support for the US dollar.

Stocks: Valuation risks and weak technical signals.
The correction is intensifying.
Last week's sharp decline in the Nasdaq (over 2%) highlights structural fragility, especially among AI and technology stocks.

Fears of a new bubble are growing again.

Key risks of the week:

• NFP and CPI lagged data
• Nvidia Results (Wednesday, November 19):
  Any disappointment or weak guidance could amplify the sell-off.

US Dollar Index (USDX): Supported by Hawkish Fed
Technical Picture:
Steady above the 99.00 support; trend remains bullish.

Short term:
If 99.00 holds, a retest of 100.00 is likely.
Loss of 99.00 = negative signal.

USDX, H4 Chart | Source: Ultima Markets MT5

Market Outlook: What to Watch Now
Sentiment:
Defensiveness prevails.
Risk assets will remain under pressure until surprises arise from monetary policy, the dollar, or macroeconomic data.

Main triggers:

• Nvidia Results
• Delayed macro data

These two factors could determine the direction of the market's next move.
A disappointment would increase the downside risk.

Dollar:
99.00 remains the key level for bullish scenarios.

Discussion:
Are you remaining defensive or looking for buying opportunities in tech stocks?
Will Nvidia results change sentiment, or will there be further downside?
Will the dollar break higher, or is a monetary policy surprise possible?

Share your strategy below!

 

[Ultima Markets Italia]

Nvidia Profits: "The Final Test" for Tech Valuations


Nvidia in the spotlight
The market is eagerly awaiting Nvidia's results, which are seen as the key test of whether its AI-related valuations are sustainable or destined to correct.

Many traders are already talking about a “Make-or-Break” moment for the tech sector.

Why this report is so important
Nvidia has a huge impact on market sentiment.
It's the poster child for the AI boom, and its results will be a direct indicator of the sector's strength or weakness.

But there is a clear risk:
Too high expectations increase the likelihood of disappointment.

NASDAQ 100: Weak Technical Structure
The Nasdaq 100 index continues to show vulnerability.
Several rebound attempts have failed, indicating a lack of buyer strength.

Key level:

• 25,000 is the critical support
• A breakout could trigger a deeper correction

NAS100, Daily Chart | Latest Market MT5

S&P 500: Cautious Sentiment
The market remains defensive ahead of earnings.
Demand-flow models show little appetite for buying at resistance levels.

Possible scenarios:

• Negative data = new wave of sales
• Positive data = possible relief rally

S&P 500, Daily Chart | Latest Market MT5

Gold: Safe-haven demand rising
Investors are returning to defensive assets ahead of Nvidia's earnings release.

Technical overview:

• Resistance: $4,220
• Uptrend as long as it remains above $4,180

XAU/USD, H2 Chart | Latest Market MT5

Outlook: It all depends on Nvidia
Nvidia's result will be decisive for:

• The tech sentiment
• Maintaining AI ratings
• The management of the Nasdaq
• Future rotations between risk and defense

Discussion:
How do you position yourself on Nvidia earnings?
Do you see a rally or a correction?
Will gold continue to rise if Nvidia disappoints?

 

[Ultima Markets Italia]

AI rebound boosts tech, dollar accelerates: NFPs are the next big catalyst

Nvidia Surprises, Sparks Tech Rally Breakout
Results:
Q3 Revenue: $57 Billion (Expected: $55.4 Billion)
Data Center: $51.2 Billion (All-Time Record)
Q4 Guidance: $65 Billion (Consensus: $61.8 Billion)

CEO Jensen Huang:
"Blackwell sales are extremely strong. No AI bubble."

Market reaction:
Nasdaq futures up 2 percent in post-market trading.
Sentiment toward the AI/tech sector strengthens again.

FOMC Minutes: Internal Division, but Dollar Dominates
The Fed is divided:
Many want to keep rates unchanged.
Some are pushing for a rate cut.

The probability of a December cut drops to 35 percent.

Dollar:
USDX surpasses 100, hits 6-month high.

USDX, Daily Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

NFP: The next crucial test:
First post-shutdown employment report.
Expectations: +50,000 jobs.

Market Scenarios:
Strong NFP:

• They strengthen the Fed's hawkish prudence
• Dollar strengthens
• Risky assets under pressure

Weak NFPs:

• They reopen the door to the December cuts
• Potential continuation of the stock rally
• Weaker dollar

GBP/USD: Bearish structure confirmed
Technical pattern:
Double Top
Break below 1.3200

Outlook:
Bearish momentum
Target: 1.2850

GBPUSD, Daily Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

What to watch now:
Can the Nvidia rally support the market even with strong NFPs?
Will the jobs data confirm the dollar's dominance?
GBP/USD remains one of the best shorts for long USD traders.

Discussion:
Will AI gains withstand a more hawkish macro environment?
Should you trade the dollar breakout now or wait for confirmation from the NFP?
Are you long or short GBP/USD?

 

[Ultima Markets Italia]

Dati occupazionali misti, Fed aggressiva: scende l’appetito per il rischio, aumentano i timori di bear market


Il mercato del lavoro invia segnali contrastanti e la Fed rimane hawkish
La sorpresa sulle buste paga:
NFP di settembre: +119.000 (attese: +50.000) — dato forte

La disoccupazione sale al 4,4 percento (da 4,1)
Le revisioni dei mesi precedenti sono state al ribasso
Il mercato del lavoro mostra resilienza, ma segnali chiari di rallentamento

Impatto sulla politica monetaria:
La Fed resta aggressiva: “Nessuna fretta di tagliare i tassi.”
Probabilità di un taglio a dicembre scende al 27 percento
Scenario “tassi più alti per più tempo” riconfermato

Reazione dei mercati: azioni e crypto sotto pressione

Azioni:
Il rally iniziale post-Nvidia si è invertito bruscamente
Il Nasdaq guida i ribassi
L’S&P 500 scende sotto la media mobile a 50 giorni — segnale tecnico ribassista

Gli utili forti non bastano a compensare le valutazioni troppo elevate in un contesto di tassi alti

S&P 500, Daily Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

Criptovalute:
Bitcoin rompe i 90.000 USD
Perde la fascia di supporto 90.000–88.000
Breakdown tecnico, momentum debole

Si diffonde l’idea di “bear market” — probabile permanenza sotto i 90.000

BTCUSD, Daily Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

Il focus ora passa ai dati sull’inflazione
Oggi: S&P Global PMI

Catalizzatore chiave della settimana:
CPI USA

Un dato CPI elevato = meno speranze di tagli + più pressione sugli asset rischiosi

Strategia & Discussione
Restate difensivi nello scenario “higher for longer”?
Quali livelli monitorate per conferme di trend?
Il CPI porterà sollievo o rafforzerà lo scenario ribassista?

Scrivete la vostra opinione!

 

[Ultima Markets Italia]

Waller signals December rate cut: PPI to decide dollar fate, while risk assets rebound


Fed Shifts Decisively Dovish: 80 Percent Chances of Cut
Waller's Comments:
Governor Waller openly supports a rate cut in December, warning of the risks of keeping rates too high for too long.

Market Reaction:
CME FedWatch: About 80% probability of a 25 basis point cut.
The "higher for longer" narrative fades, replaced by expectations of imminent easing.

PPI in focus: This week's leading inflation indicator.
CPI canceled:
No October CPI data due to the shutdown.
Today's PPI is the only true inflation indicator.

Market Scenarios:
Weak PPI (≤0.3 percent):
Fed confirms dovish
December cut almost guaranteed
Dollar nears 100.00 breakout
New momentum for stocks, cryptocurrencies and risk assets

Strong PPI (>0.3 percent):
Weakens rate cuts narrative,
increases volatility,
possible dollar rebound

US Dollar: Crucial Technical Level at 100.00
The Dollar Index has been stuck around 100.00 for four sessions.

Break below 100.00:

• Bearish signal in the short term
• Possible acceleration of the decline

Held above 100.00:

• Potential short squeeze if PPI surprises to the upside

USDX, Daily Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

Risky assets: Optimism returns
Stocks:
Nasdaq and S&P 500 rebound on rate cut hopes.

Crypto:
Bitcoin and Ethereum are moving higher as sentiment improves.
BTCUSD must reclaim $90,000 to confirm a bullish reversal.

BTCUSD, Daily Chart | Latest Market MT5

What to Watch Today
PPI:
Weak = Falling Dollar and Risk Rally
Strong = Volatility and Possible Rebound

Bitcoin:
Key Level 90,000 to Confirm Bullish Strength

Discussion:
Will the dovish pivot hold if the PPI is higher than expected?
Should you short the dollar immediately or wait for technical confirmation?
Is this the start of a new rally or just a bear market rebound?

 

[Ultima Markets Italia]

Il PPI conferma la svolta dovish della Fed: il dollaro crolla, l’oro accelera

PPI conferma un chiaro pivot dovish
Dati PPI:
MoM: +0,2 percento (attese: +0,3)
Core YoY: +2,6 percento (in calo)

Impatto di mercato:
Probabilità di un taglio dei tassi a dicembre sale al 90 percento
La Fed è ora vista come molto vicina a un allentamento

Dollar Index: rottura ribassista sotto 100,00
Primo close sotto 100,00 dalla scorsa settimana
Trend passa da consolidamento a ribassista nel breve

Scenario di trading:
Meglio vendere sui rimbalzi finché non emerge un’inversione solida

USDX, H2 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

Oro (XAU/USD): confermato segnale rialzista
Motori del rialzo:
Debolezza del dollaro
Aspettative di taglio dei tassi

Tecnico:
Solido sopra 4.100 USD
Target 4.150
Break di 4.150 → spazio per 4.200

Strategia:
Comprare sui pullback finché si resta sopra 4.100

XAU/USD, H2 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

Focus di breve termine
Dati di oggi:
Richieste di sussidi disoccupazione
Forte aumento = Fed più dovish, dollaro più debole
Ordini beni durevoli
Forte = supporto al dollaro
Debole = conferma scenario ribassista sul dollaro

PCE e PIL rivisti arriveranno solo a dicembre.

Strategia
Dollaro: ribassista salvo dati molto forti
Oro: comprare correzioni
Rischio evento: Jobless Claims e Durable Goods Orders

Discussione
Questo è l’inizio di un nuovo bull market sull’oro?
Il dollaro reagirà o continuerà a scendere?
State tradando oro o dollaro in vista dei dati di dicembre?