A quanto lo "stimi" il recovery?
Titoli di Stato paesi-emergenti VENEZUELA e Petroleos de Venezuela - Cap. 2 (5 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione tommy271
- Data di Inizio
FNAIOS
Aò
FNAIOS
Aò
Ebbè... e bisogna pure vedere quando.
arkymede74
Forumer storico
news di ELECAR?
Sandrino???
Sandrino???
gasta
Forumer attivo
Concordo in pieno, stesso mio pensiero e motivo per cui nn c'è convenienza a far risalire troppo i prezzi...ci sarà un'altalena di movimenti nelle prossime settimane: difatti mi chiedevo se i volumi in gioco confermassero ciò anche se è difficile perché il grosso degli scambi avviene OTC
carib
rerum cognoscere causas
(Bloomberg) -- Speculation that President Nicolas Maduro will default on Venezuela’s debt has sent credit-default swaps skyrocketing to records as the clock runs out on debt payments.
Traders have become so pessimistic that swaps contracts now imply unheard-of 100 percent odds that the oil-rich nation will default during the next five years, with the prevailing theory being that the socialist leader will favor full stomachs over Wall Street ahead of next year’s presidential election.
But an assortment of money managers and analysts, including Emso Asset Management, AllianceBernstein LP and Torino Capital, say the market has rushed to judgment.
“The savings of default would be meager over a five-month horizon, the costs incalculable and the political benefits questionable,” said Patrick Esteruelas, head of research at Emso, which oversees $5.2 billion. “I don’t think they have a restructuring strategy, and I certainly don’t think they’ve reached the conclusion that a default or selective default is an effective strategy that will serve them well politically.”
While the Maduro government has drawn criticism from opposition lawmakers for prioritizing debt payments to Wall Street firms amid a shortage of affordable necessities, there’s evidence to suggest a default wouldn’t be politically palatable. A July poll by the Caracas consultancy Datanalisis found that nearly 60 percent of Venezuelan respondents wouldn’t support a default, even if it meant importing more food and medicine.
And while the country has tested the limits of payment deadlines, the fact that the president as well as PDVSA executives have still gone to great lengths to deliver funds to bondholders amid tighter sanctions and difficulties with intermediary banks suggests that their willingness to pay hasn’t withered, saidFrancisco Rodriguez, chief economist at Torino Capital in New York.
“I don’t see them making all this effort to pay and then going into default for the coupons," he said. Venezuela’s government appears to “see the problem as a general problem and they are not making distinctions between entities when making a payment decision.”
Investors will probably know more on Monday, when the government is scheduled to host bondholders in Caracas for debt talks. But Esteruelas says that the openness toward exploring restructuring options doesn’t change the fact that the government is resolute on avoiding default at all costs.
“Usually if you’re planning to default, you don’t make payments because you want to preserve liquidity,” said Shamaila Khan, director of emerging markets at AllianceBernstein, the eighth-largest reported holder of Venezuelan debt securities. “Investor patience is higher now knowing that transactions could be delayed.
Traders have become so pessimistic that swaps contracts now imply unheard-of 100 percent odds that the oil-rich nation will default during the next five years, with the prevailing theory being that the socialist leader will favor full stomachs over Wall Street ahead of next year’s presidential election.
But an assortment of money managers and analysts, including Emso Asset Management, AllianceBernstein LP and Torino Capital, say the market has rushed to judgment.
“The savings of default would be meager over a five-month horizon, the costs incalculable and the political benefits questionable,” said Patrick Esteruelas, head of research at Emso, which oversees $5.2 billion. “I don’t think they have a restructuring strategy, and I certainly don’t think they’ve reached the conclusion that a default or selective default is an effective strategy that will serve them well politically.”
While the Maduro government has drawn criticism from opposition lawmakers for prioritizing debt payments to Wall Street firms amid a shortage of affordable necessities, there’s evidence to suggest a default wouldn’t be politically palatable. A July poll by the Caracas consultancy Datanalisis found that nearly 60 percent of Venezuelan respondents wouldn’t support a default, even if it meant importing more food and medicine.
And while the country has tested the limits of payment deadlines, the fact that the president as well as PDVSA executives have still gone to great lengths to deliver funds to bondholders amid tighter sanctions and difficulties with intermediary banks suggests that their willingness to pay hasn’t withered, saidFrancisco Rodriguez, chief economist at Torino Capital in New York.
“I don’t see them making all this effort to pay and then going into default for the coupons," he said. Venezuela’s government appears to “see the problem as a general problem and they are not making distinctions between entities when making a payment decision.”
Investors will probably know more on Monday, when the government is scheduled to host bondholders in Caracas for debt talks. But Esteruelas says that the openness toward exploring restructuring options doesn’t change the fact that the government is resolute on avoiding default at all costs.
“Usually if you’re planning to default, you don’t make payments because you want to preserve liquidity,” said Shamaila Khan, director of emerging markets at AllianceBernstein, the eighth-largest reported holder of Venezuelan debt securities. “Investor patience is higher now knowing that transactions could be delayed.
TAGADA
Nuovo forumer
Sono uscito dal venezuela 1 anno fa, rammaricandomene poi perché avrei guadagnato di più. Ora visto la debacle,a posteriori, ero anche contento della scelta fatta e sono rientrato (troppo presto) mediando sulle discese, e mai alleggerendo. Ultimo acquisto la ven. 27 a 19 pari a circa il 10% del pf bonos, ma troppo poco per mediare in maniera consistente.
Ora mi ritrovo con un pmc. di 30 comprensivo dei ratei pagati, e sono quindi in loss del 15%.
Credo che il prossimo scoglio sia quello dell'incertezza sulla ristrutturazione, o default sempre possibile, ma vorrei giocarmi la partita fino in fondo.
Quello che non so decidere e che nessuno può' consigliare è se sfruttare questa salita ed alleggerire, confidando nella futura incertezza e quindi in una discesa, nei prossimi giorni ma c'è sempre la possibilità di dover rientrare a prezzi più alti. Dilemma di molti in questo momento.
Il passato è passato, le cedole incassate ed il trading effettuato, non le conteggio
Ora mi ritrovo con un pmc. di 30 comprensivo dei ratei pagati, e sono quindi in loss del 15%.
Credo che il prossimo scoglio sia quello dell'incertezza sulla ristrutturazione, o default sempre possibile, ma vorrei giocarmi la partita fino in fondo.
Quello che non so decidere e che nessuno può' consigliare è se sfruttare questa salita ed alleggerire, confidando nella futura incertezza e quindi in una discesa, nei prossimi giorni ma c'è sempre la possibilità di dover rientrare a prezzi più alti. Dilemma di molti in questo momento.
Il passato è passato, le cedole incassate ed il trading effettuato, non le conteggio
tommy271
Forumer storico
Ponendo realistico lo scenario per PDVSA, poi si metteranno d'accordo tra di loro.
Più complesso sui soberanos, anche per tutta la questione politica che farà da corollario alla vicenda.
Ieri abbiamo avuto la buona news del ricevimento dei $ da parte del Delaware Trust per il pagamento di PDVSA 17.
Oggi ELECAR dovrebbe essere andata in default... ed attendiamo notizie.
Per lunedì sentiremo cosa ha in mente Maduro per i bondholder.
gasta
Forumer attivo
Bè certo però il cambio non sta dando una mano anzi a me ha impattato negativamente per circa il 5-6% sul titolo da trading che ho scelto...altro discorso per le posizioni di più ampio respiro con cui ho cambiato a 1,32 circa;
Owblisky
Compravendite mobiliari
Se in USA aprono in rialzo , oggi potrebbe essere una giornata da +25/30 %, imho.
Mettetevi in testa che tra ieri e oggi ......... è un altro "mondo".