Obbligazioni societarie Voestalpine, ThyssenKrupp, ArcelorMittal e l'industra dell'acciaio

[Imark]

Per S&P, ThyssenKrupp sarebbe indirizzata verso un rating speculativo, ove il management non riesca a varare un piano di riduzione dell'indebitamento, cresciuto di 2,6 mld euro nel Q1/2009 a quota 12,9 mld euro, e dunque in rapida ascesa e di un impegno del management a conservare un certo livello di copertura del debito da parte del cash operativo (misurato in termini di FFO/adjusted debt pari al 25%).

ThyssenKrupp AG Downgraded to 'BBB-' On Expected Losses And Weak Outlook; Still On CreditWatch Negative

-- The steel sector is experiencing a significant downturn.
-- We are lowering our long-term corporate credit rating on ThyssenKrupp to 'BBB-'.
-- The rating remains on CreditWatch with negative implications, which reflects the risk of a further downgrade within the next few months.

LONDON (Standard & Poor's) June 5, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today it lowered to 'BBB-' from 'BBB' its long-term corporate credit rating on Germany-based industrial conglomerate ThyssenKrupp AG.

The rating remains on CreditWatch, where it was placed with negative implications on March 20, 2009, based on our view of heightened near-term downside risks. In addition, as part of today's rating action, the 'A-3' short-term corporate credit rating was placed on CreditWatch with negative implications.

"The downgrade reflects the severe downturn underway in the steel sector, and its effects on the credit metrics of ThyssenKrupp," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Alex Herbert.

"Specifically, we do not anticipate ThyssenKrupp's credit metrics remaining consistent with the 'BBB' rating level, including a ratio of funds from operations (FFO) to adjusted debt of about 30%-35%. We are also concerned that the group's credit metrics may not be consistent with a 'BBB-' rating.

The CreditWatch on both the long-term and short-term ratings therefore indicates that a further downgrade could occur within the next few months if we do not see a meaningful debt reduction plan from ThyssenKrupp's management.

"We recognize that ThyssenKrupp's management is responding with corrective actions to adjust the group's business strategy and protect its financial profile. To date, however, we consider this response to be quite slow and limited in scale and scope, and not yet sufficient to adequately mitigate the deterioration in ThyssenKrupp's credit quality."

As at March 31, 2009, our estimate of adjusted debt rose by about €2.6 billion to about €12.9 billion, which includes about €6.5 billion of pension and other postretirement obligations. The ratio of last-12-months FFO to adjusted debt was about 20%.

ThyssenKrupp has warned that a loss before tax in the "mid-to-high three-digit million euros range" is likely for the financial year ending Sept. 30, 2009. This expected loss is before major nonrecurring items and possible future restructuring, project, and impairment costs. We currently factor in extremely weak FFO for the year and adjusted debt of approximately €15 billion.

We aim to review the CreditWatch placement within the next few months. The CreditWatch indicates that a downgrade of ThyssenKrupp could take place if we do not see a meaningful plan of debt reduction by that time.

The plan should in our opinion indicate, on a prospective basis, that credit ratios could recover over the next couple of years. It should in our view include a ratio of FFO to adjusted debt of around 25%, which we would regard as being consistent with an investment-grade rating. We would likely limit any further lowering of the long-term corporate credit rating by one notch.

 

[Imark]

Arcelormittal un po' meglio, ma non troppo... viene downgradata a BBB outlook negativo. Il contesto resta fortemente negativo per l'intero comparto dell'acciaio, i fatturati si contraggono rapidamente ed il rapporto fra la generazione di cassa e l'indebitamento segnala un deterioramento della misura di protezione del creditore...

L'outlook negativo é piuttosto largo, nel senso che il downgrade appare condizionato al mancato recupero di un FFO/adjusted debt pari al 30% entro il 2010. Se il fondo fosse stato realmente toccato nel Q1/2009, potrebbe farcela a non perdere l'IG.

ArcelorMittal Downgraded To 'BBB/A-3' On Severe Steel Market Downturn; Outlook Negative

-- The steel sector is experiencing a significant downturn.
-- We are lowering our long-term rating on ArcelorMittal to 'BBB' from 'BBB+'.
-- The negative outlook reflects our expectations of ongoing difficult market conditions.

LONDON (Standard & Poor's) June 5, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it lowered its long-term corporate credit and debt ratings on Luxembourg-registered steel group ArcelorMittal and subsidiaries to 'BBB' from 'BBB+'. At the same time, the short-term corporate credit and debt ratings on finance subsidiary ArcelorMittal Finance were lowered to 'A-3' from 'A-2'. We removed all ratings from CreditWatch with negative implications, where they were placed on March 20, 2009. The outlook is negative.

"The downgrade reflects a severe downturn underway in the global steel sector and its impact on ArcelorMittal's credit metrics. We do not envisage credit metrics remaining consistent with the 'BBB+' rating, including a ratio of funds from operations (FFO) to adjusted debt of about 35%," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Alex Herbert.

Like its peers, ArcelorMittal is experiencing a broad and severe weakening of its operating performance, caused by very difficult market conditions in the steel sector. This is evident in sharply reduced capacity utilization, shipments, and steel prices. Market conditions appear to be stabilizing but are likely to remain weak, in our view.

We recognize that ArcelorMittal's management is responding with corrective actions to adjust its business strategy and to protect its financial profile. This includes production cuts; cost-saving initiatives; reducing working capital, capital expenditures, dividends, and debt; and refraining from acquisitions. We also note the lengthening of debt maturities and raising of $3.2 billion of new equity. These actions are, however, not sufficient in our view to fully mitigate the negative effects of the downturn.We factor in a materially weaker operating performance in 2009 compared with 2008.

We expect a combination of much lower cash flow generation and substantial adjusted debt to put pressure on ArcelorMittal's credit quality, which could significantly reduce the ratio of FFO to adjusted debt to below 20% in 2009, in our scenario, compared with about 62% at Dec. 31, 2008. Nevertheless, we expect positive free operating cash flow (FOCF) this year.We also factor in the possibility that in the absence of further corrective action by management and depending on market conditions during the rest of the year, ArcelorMittal could breach a 3.5x net debt to EBITDA financial covenant, which is tested half-yearly.

In the three months to March 31, 2009, ArcelorMittal's EBITDA (before exceptional items, including a hedging gain) was only $380 million, compared with $5.0 billion a year earlier; this was before a further $1.2 billion of asset writedowns. FFO was negative by about $1.2 billion during the three months to March 31, 2009, compared with positive $3.2 billion a year earlier.

The rating continues to be supported by ArcelorMittal's position as by far the world's largest and most diversified steelmaker, with a global spread of operations. The negative outlook reflects the possibility of a further downgrade during the next year or so. This could occur if the company is not able to demonstrate on a prospective basis that it is able to improve its credit metrics, including a ratio of FFO to adjusted debt of about 30% by 2010.

We would expect this to be driven by an improved operating environment and further corrective action by management. A move to negative FOCF could also place downward pressure on the ratings.

Ratings stability could be established if the group is able to demonstrate that such an improvement were sustainable

 

[Imark]

Ancora su ArcelorMittal, ed in particolare sull'emissione dei bond in Euro. Apprendo da Fitch che il prospetto contiene una clausola change of control (che consente un richiamo anticipato dei bond, normalmente alla pari, nel caso in cui un passaggio di proprietà dell'emittente comporti una perdita del rating IG).

Interessante la nota a margine circa la durata sui processi di destocking (al termine del processo di riduzione delle scorte nel settore é condizionata una possibile ripresa dell'attività di produzione), che per Fitch é da attendersi oggi non prima del termine del Q2/2009, inizio del Q3/2009 per gli USA e non prima di fine 2009 per l'Europa.

Entrambe le date sono state spostate in avanti rispetto a precedenti previsioni, segno di una lentezza nel destocking rivelatasi superiore alle precedenti previsioni di Fitch.

Fitch Assigns ArcelorMittal's Bonds Expected 'BBB' Rating

01 Jun 2009 7:51 AM (EDT)

Fitch Ratings-London/Frankfurt-01 June 2009: Fitch Ratings has today assigned ArcelorMittal S.A.'s (AM) prospective EUR note issues expected senior unsecured ratings of 'BBB'. The announced aggregate amount of EUR2.5bn will be split into two issues: EUR1.5bn due in 2013 and EUR1.0bn due in 2016. The expected ratings are in line with AM's Long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) of 'BBB'.

AM plans to use the net proceeds from the notes to refinance and extend the tenor of existing group debt due over the next three years. Fitch will assign the notes a final rating upon closure, scheduled for 3 June 2009, subject to receipt of final documentation materially conforming to the draft documentation reviewed.

The notes will be unsecured, unsubordinated obligations of AM and will rank equally with existing unsecured, unsubordinated obligations. Fitch notes that the draft documentation includes protection to noteholders in the event of an acquisition through a change of control clause, although there are some exceptions including in respect of a change of control involving members of the Mittal family. The draft documentation does not contain specific financial covenants.

Fitch downgraded AM's Long-term IDR and senior unsecured ratings to 'BBB' from 'BBB+', respectively, on 20 May 2009. At the same time, the agency affirmed the company's Short-term IDR at 'F2' and removed all ratings from Rating Watch Negative (RWN). The Outlook on the Long-term IDR is Stable. (For further information, see the comment, entitled 'Fitch Downgrades ArcelorMittal to 'BBB'; off RWN; Outlook Stable', which is available on the agency's subscriber website, www.fitchresearch.com.)

The downgrade of AM's Long-term IDR last month reflected the significant negative impact which Fitch expects the current global recession will have on the company's operating performance and credit metrics. While Fitch rates through commodity cycles, the severity of the current downturn has exceeded previous downturns.

The agency expects a 15-20% year-on-year fall in 2009 global steel demand and a weak recovery thereafter. The rating action also reflected the price and volume impact of a delay in the completion of destocking in the US and Europe and the eventual subsequent improvement in steel demand and producer output volumes.

Fitch does now not expect the destocking process in the US to conclude until late Q209 or early Q309, while in Europe the process is not likely to be finalised until late Q409.

Luxembourg-based AM is the world's largest steel company with FY08 shipments of 102 million tonnes of steel, sales of USD124.9bn and EBITDA, as reported, of USD24.4bn.

 

[lorenzo63]

Ancora su ArcelorMittal, ed in particolare sull'emissione dei bond in Euro. Apprendo da Fitch che il prospetto contiene una clausola change of control (che consente un richiamo anticipato dei bond, normalmente alla pari, nel caso in cui un passaggio di proprietà dell'emittente comporti una perdita del rating IG).

Interessante la nota a margine circa la durata sui processi di destocking (al termine del processo di riduzione delle scorte nel settore é condizionata una possibile ripresa dell'attività di produzione), che per Fitch é da attendersi oggi non prima del termine del Q2/2009, inizio del Q3/2009 per gli USA e non prima di fine 2009 per l'Europa.

Entrambe le date sono state spostate in avanti rispetto a precedenti previsioni, segno di una lentezza nel destocking rivelatasi superiore alle precedenti previsioni di Fitch.

Fitch Assigns ArcelorMittal's Bonds Expected 'BBB' Rating

01 Jun 2009 7:51 AM (EDT)

Fitch Ratings-London/Frankfurt-01 June 2009: Fitch Ratings has today assigned ArcelorMittal S.A.'s (AM) prospective EUR note issues expected senior unsecured ratings of 'BBB'. The announced aggregate amount of EUR2.5bn will be split into two issues: EUR1.5bn due in 2013 and EUR1.0bn due in 2016. The expected ratings are in line with AM's Long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) of 'BBB'.

AM plans to use the net proceeds from the notes to refinance and extend the tenor of existing group debt due over the next three years. Fitch will assign the notes a final rating upon closure, scheduled for 3 June 2009, subject to receipt of final documentation materially conforming to the draft documentation reviewed.

The notes will be unsecured, unsubordinated obligations of AM and will rank equally with existing unsecured, unsubordinated obligations. Fitch notes that the draft documentation includes protection to noteholders in the event of an acquisition through a change of control clause, although there are some exceptions including in respect of a change of control involving members of the Mittal family. The draft documentation does not contain specific financial covenants.

Fitch downgraded AM's Long-term IDR and senior unsecured ratings to 'BBB' from 'BBB+', respectively, on 20 May 2009. At the same time, the agency affirmed the company's Short-term IDR at 'F2' and removed all ratings from Rating Watch Negative (RWN). The Outlook on the Long-term IDR is Stable. (For further information, see the comment, entitled 'Fitch Downgrades ArcelorMittal to 'BBB'; off RWN; Outlook Stable', which is available on the agency's subscriber website, www.fitchresearch.com.)

The downgrade of AM's Long-term IDR last month reflected the significant negative impact which Fitch expects the current global recession will have on the company's operating performance and credit metrics. While Fitch rates through commodity cycles, the severity of the current downturn has exceeded previous downturns.

The agency expects a 15-20% year-on-year fall in 2009 global steel demand and a weak recovery thereafter. The rating action also reflected the price and volume impact of a delay in the completion of destocking in the US and Europe and the eventual subsequent improvement in steel demand and producer output volumes.

Fitch does now not expect the destocking process in the US to conclude until late Q209 or early Q309, while in Europe the process is not likely to be finalised until late Q409.

Luxembourg-based AM is the world's largest steel company with FY08 shipments of 102 million tonnes of steel, sales of USD124.9bn and EBITDA, as reported, of USD24.4bn.

Mark, Ti riferisci a queste due emissioni?
-- Tratte da Giontra file nuove emissioni --

EUR ARCELORMITTAL 2009 2016 9.375 99.381 XS0431928414
EUR ARCELORMITTAL 2009 2013 8.250 99.589 XS0431928760

 

[lorenzo63]

Steel Groups Warn of Impact From BHP-Rio Tinto Accord

BEIJING -- Steel-industry groups in China and Europe Tuesday voiced concern about the proposed iron-ore joint venture that Anglo-Australian mining-giant Rio Tinto and its rival BHP Billiton Ltd. have announced.

The China Iron and Steel Association, a lobby group for Chinese steel mills, said the joint-venture agreement "goes in the direction of a monopoly" and it suggested that China, as the largest customer for Australia's iron ore, should have a say in global ore trading.

The Chinese association previously has expressed concerns that a combination of Rio Tinto and BHP would have excessive pricing power in the global market.

"The BHP-Rio deal is tied to Chinese companies' interests," the association said Tuesday in a statement on its Web site. It also warned local iron-ore traders from seeking to profit from speculation in the iron-ore trade. The association said it would suspend the iron-ore import licenses of those found to have resold imported ore at a profit.

China has sought to curb high ore imports in recent months; preliminary figures from the Ministry of Transportation, released Tuesday, suggest the country could have imported 55.5 million metric tons of iron ore in May, up 25% from a year earlier.

Last Friday, Rio Tinto ended its planned $19.5 billion alliance with Aluminum Corp. of China, or Chinalco, in favor of the proposed deal with BHP. Due to the proposed transaction's size and global reach, it will likely be reviewed by competition authorities in multiple countries, including China, which last year began implementing a new antitrust law.

Separately, the European steel industry called for the European Union to launch an antitrust investigation into the proposed venture.

Eurofer, a steel-industry lobby group based in Brussels, said that a merger of iron-ore assets in a world market already dominated by just three suppliers wouldn't be in the interests of the steel industry or the European consumers.

Rio Tinto, BHP and Brazil's Cia. Vale do Rio Doce SA control about 70% of the market for iron-ore exports, a vital source of raw materials for steelmakers in Asia and Europe.

"We will be calling on the European Commission to use its regulatory powers to ensure that competition concerns are addressed," said Eurofer's director-general, Gordon Moffat.

Also on Tuesday, Chung Joon Yang, the chief executive of South Korean steelmaker Posco, said that steel producers won't welcome the planned venture. He was speaking at an annual industry event.

The World Steel Association also has objected to the proposed venture.

 

[Imark]

Mark, Ti riferisci a queste due emissioni?
-- Tratte da Giontra file nuove emissioni --

EUR ARCELORMITTAL 2009 2016 9.375 99.381 XS0431928414
EUR ARCELORMITTAL 2009 2013 8.250 99.589 XS0431928760

Sì Lorenzo...

 

[Imark]

Outlook compartimentale negativo di Moody's per metal mining & steel, non solo in Asia Pacifico, ma globalmente nei prossimi 12-18 mesi.

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's Negative Outlook for Asia-Pacific Metals, Mining, & Steel[/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Hong Kong, June 10, 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service has a negative outlook for the base-metals, mining, and steel industries in Asia Pacific over the next 12-18 months. The negative view matches Moody's outlook for the sector elsewhere in the world. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The agency's lead regional analyst for metals and mining, Terry Fanous, a senior vice president, says, "China's strategic stockpiling and replacement of lower-quality domestic production with higher-quality imports have supported the recent rally in prices for many base metals, but we will not see a sustainable turnaround in demand until the major economies of the U.S., Europe, and Japan recover." [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Fanous does not expect such a recovery before 2010 and says it is likely to be gradual and sluggish, adding, "We therefore expect the financial profile of the sector to be weak in 2009 and well into 2010, particularly because there have not been major improvements on the cost side to neutralize the pressures on output pricing and production." [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Fanous notes, "In the current environment of a weak global economy and uncertain capital markets, companies more likely to maintain their ratings include those that enjoy product diversity, conservative financial leverage, limited refinancing risk through 2010, and manageable programs of capital expenditure over the next 2-3 years." [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica][/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]He says that such companies include BHP Billiton, which Moody's rates A1 with stable outlook, and which had maintained a superior financial profile going into the current downturn. "As such, last week's announced JV with Rio Tinto (rated Baa1/stable), and which entails a payment of up to US$5.8 billion over the next 12 months, is manageable within BHP Billiton's ratings. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Chris Park, a Moody's vice president in Hong Kong, says "Ratings within the steel sector have become more vulnerable in the global recession because much lower sales volumes and prices - due to weak demand and overcapacity - have put margins under pressure." According to Park, these challenges have contributed to the change in outlook of POSCO and the downgrade of Tata Steel's ratings in recent months. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]With regard to China, Park says, "The ongoing slump in China's property and export sectors, which are key users of global bulk commodities such as steel, may ultimately benefit from the stimulus packages in China and abroad, but the full effects of these stimulus policies remain to be seen." [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Laura Acres, a Moody's vice president, says, "In contrast to other regional issuers, rated Indonesia producers of thermal coal enjoy stable outlooks as they have locked in favorable long-term contract prices and enjoy strong demand for their output from domestic and North Asian utilities." [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Fanous also adds that , "Liquidity profiles vary within the sector. Investment-grade issuers have manageable positions supported by appropriate levels of balance-sheet and alternate liquidity and manageable levels of capital expenditure, despite their weakened operating cash flows." [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]"However," he adds, "pressure on cash flows and the absence of any meaningful bank credit have strained the liquidity of some high-yield issuers." He noted that risk aversion in credit markets is another factor behind the weakened liquidity profile of such issuers, which include Bemax (rated Caa1) Griffin Coal (rated B3), and G Steel (rated Ca, with a negative outlook). [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]For further details on the sectors' issuers in the region, please refer to Moody's previous regional outlook, published at www.moodys.com in May 2008 and entitled "Industry Outlook -- Snapshot: Asia-Pacific Base Metals, Mining, and Steel: Stable Outlook Amid Margin Pressure". For a global perspective, readers can access a report from April 2009, entitled "Global Base Metals Industry Outlook -- Six-Month Update" and a special comment from January 2009: "Leveraged Finance Industry Updates: Mining, Steel, and Coal Industries". [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]In Asia Pacific, since last May's outlook, Moody's has downgraded Asia Aluminum four times, Bemax, Griffin Coal and G Steel (each on three occasions), Tata Steel (twice), and Vedanta, while revising BHP Billiton's outlook to stable from negative after it withdrew its takeover bid for Rio. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]In determining corporate ratings, Moody's uses its rating methodologies on the global mining industry, published in May 2009, and on the global steel industry, from January 2009.[/FONT]

 

[Imark]

Altri bond ThyssenKrupp in eruo, con il cedolone anche loro... Una breve disamina di Fitch ci racconta che hanno una clausola step up in caso di perdita dell'IG per almeno 2 agenzie...

Fitch Rates ThyssenKrupp's EUR1bn Bonds 'BBB-'
10 Jun 2009 4:01 AM (EDT)


Fitch Ratings-London/Frankfurt-10 June 2009: Fitch Ratings has today assigned ThyssenKrupp AG's (TK) EUR1bn benchmark bond issue a senior unsecured 'BBB-' rating. Fitch has simultaneously affirmed the company's Long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BBB-' with a Negative Outlook and the company's Short-term IDR at 'F3'. The issue rating reflects TK's Long-term IDR of 'BBB-'.

The five-year notes, which carry a coupon of 8%, is issued under TK's and ThyssenKrupp Finance Nederland B.V.'s EUR10bn debt issuance programme.

The bonds include a coupon step-up clause in the event that two rating agencies downgrade TK's rating to sub-investment grade.
Proceeds from the issue will be used to further strengthen the group's liquidity and financial flexibility, and to extend its debt maturity profile.

TK is a diversified industrial group. The conglomerate has leading global market positions in steel and elevators, as well as in selected engineering and services activities. TK employs nearly 200,000 people worldwide and reported sales of EUR53.4bn in FY08.

For further details on the group, please refer to Fitch's 20 May 2009 commentary "Fitch Downgrades ThyssenKrupp to 'BBB-'; Assigns Negative Outlook" and a subsequent credit update published on 27 May 2009, both of which are available on the agency's subscription website, www.fitchresearch.com

 

[Imark]

Ed il rating finale sui nuovi bond di ArcelorMittal ... i produttori di acciaio continuano a mettere fieno in cascina come chi deve affrontare un inverno lungo ed incerto... raccogliere capitali a tassi così alti sapendo che la situazione migliorerà rapidamente sarebbe privo di senso...

Fitch Assigns ArcelorMittal's 2013/2016 Bonds Final 'BBB' Rating

12 Jun 2009 5:10 AM (EDT)

Fitch Ratings-London/Frankfurt-12 June 2009: Fitch Ratings has today assigned ArcelorMittal S.A.'s (AM) EUR bond issues final senior unsecured ratings of 'BBB'. The aggregate amount of EUR2.5bn is split into two issues: EUR1.5bn due in 2013 and EUR1.0bn due in 2016. The ratings are in line with AM's Long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) of 'BBB'.

Fitch downgraded AM's Long-term IDR and senior unsecured ratings to 'BBB' from 'BBB+' on 20 May 2009. At the same time, the agency affirmed the company's Short-term IDR at 'F2' and removed all ratings from Rating Watch Negative (RWN). The Outlook on AM's Long-term IDR is Stable.

Luxembourg-based AM is the world's largest steel company with FY08 shipments of 102 million tonnes of steel, sales of USD124.9bn and EBITDA, as reported, of USD24.4bn. For further information on the May 20 rating action, please see the comment, entitled 'Fitch Downgrades ArcelorMittal to 'BBB'; off RWN; Outlook Stable', which is available on the agency's subscriber website, www.fitchresearch.com

 

[woolloomooloo]

qualcuno è così gentile da spiegarmi come funziona questo bond? non ho molta dimestichezza con le convertibili, al momento quota 25.. io per 1k pago 250€ e mi prendo il 7,25% su cosa?

riguardo al bond convertibile Arcelor Mittal ..ocio... le convertibili in francia (e a questo punto anche su bourse.lu ) son quotate in EUR e non in percentuale ..
dal prospetto in prima pagina si legge che fu emessa a 20,25 eur
<<Issue price 100%, i.e., Euro 20.25 per Bond>>
al 16 di giugno ha chiuso a 28.77..... avercele di convertibili così in italia...