24 Luglio 2008
E visto che si era parlato di prezzi dell'acciaio... ancora positivo il quadro del comparto europeo per Moody's nel 2008, con una buona performance in europa occidentale ed una crescita molto sostenuta in europa orientale, con un pricing power su buoni livelli, sostenuto anche da incrementi molto contenuti della capacità produttiva e da un crescente livello di utilizzo degli impianti esistenti.
Le aziende del settore pertanto non hanno dovuto faticare troppo per passare alla clientela gli incrementi dei costi legati all'andamento delle materie prime, senza essere costretti ad intaccare il proprio margine operativo.
Fra i fattori di rischio, una ulteriore salita dei costi di materia prima per quella parte dell'industria che utilizza semilavorati, non disponendo di capacità produttiva integrata infragruppo, specie se si accompagnasse ad un rallentamento della domanda europea.
Meno probabile un pregiudizio legato ad una forte crescita dell'export cinese, considerata la scarsa autosufficienza degli impianti cinesi circa la disponibilità di minerali ferrosi ed i costi elevati di trasporto marittimo per i dry bulks.
La stessa agenzia comincia tuttavia ad interrogarsi sui tempi di un possibile rallentamento della fase propulsiva, giacché il settore conserva un andamento ciclico, pur pronosticando che un futuro rallentamento non sarebbe drastico come alcune fasi di declino verificatesi in passato.
Moody's reports: Stable outlook for European steel industry
Frankfurt, July 24, 2008 -- The fundamental credit outlook for the European steel industry is stable, despite variations in some products or end markets, says Moody's Investors Service in a new Industry Outlook report. Moody's expects 2008 to be another good year for the industry, based on solid demand in Western Europe and continued rising demand in Eastern Europe. Cost pressures from rising input costs, especially for iron ore and coking coal, will remain a key challenge.
Moody's stable outlook for the European steel industry expresses the rating agency's view on the likely future direction of fundamental credit conditions in the industry over the next 12 to 18 months. It does not represent a projection of rating upgrades versus downgrades.
"Strong overall global demand for steel has supported pricing in Europe since 2007 and especially since the beginning of the second quarter of 2008. Demand in Europe has been solid in mature markets but has continued to strengthen in the emerging markets of Eastern Europe. Combined with a slower rate of capacity added, capacity utilisation has constantly increased in recent years," says Matthias Hellstern, a Moody's Vice-President / Senior Credit Officer and author of the report.
Given the increase in steel demand and production, demand for raw materials, such as iron ore and coking coal, has risen as well, leading to hikes in input costs. However, improved pricing power, as a result of recent industry consolidation and high capacity utilisation, has helped steel producers to at least pass on higher input costs to their customers, thereby conserving operating margins.
"Despite the overall positive operating environment, there are some potential risks. These include further rising raw material costs, lower demand for steel stemming from economic weakness in Western Europe and a slowdown in growth in Eastern Europe. Perhaps most unpredictably, a return of high volumes of exports from Chinese steel producers could erode steelmakers' pricing power," Mr Hellstern explains.
Moody's expects that vertically integrated steel producers with self-sufficiency in raw material input costs will benefit most from the current market environment. Increasing Chinese steel production and escalating steel exports is another key issue for the overall industry, albeit somewhat mitigated by the low self-sufficiency of Chinese steel mills for iron ore, as well as the very high shipping rates for dry bulks.
Moody's continues to view the steel industry as characterised by a high degree of cyclicality, and expects that the highly favourable performance experienced over recent years will not continue indefinitely, although any downturns may not be as severe or protracted as those of the past.
