Obbligazioni societarie Voestalpine, ThyssenKrupp, ArcelorMittal e l'industra dell'acciaio

[Imark]

23 settembre 2008

Ha rotto i minimi

Peccato non poterle comprare perchè a 90 sarebbe una buon acquisto

Loro continuano ad essere ottimisti... mentre altri hanno incominciato a ridurre le produzioni. Ma dipende anche dal tipo di output, se ad alto o a basso valore aggiunto...

Però voglio vedere come contano di finanziare un progetto di investimenti delle dimensioni di 5 mld euro ... di questi tempi, non sarà facilissimo...

Voestalpine sees no fall in steel demand, prices
Mon Sep 22, 2008 3:19am EDT

VIENNA, Sept 22 (Reuters) - Austrian steelmaker voestalpine (VOES.VI: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) sees no fall in European steel demand despite slowing growth and says steel prices are unlikely to come down, the company's chief executive told an Austrian newspaper.

"At the moment we see no general European fall in demand from consuming industries," CEO Wolfgang Eder told Wirtschaftsblatt. He said slower economic growth in Britain, Spain and France was not having a serious effect.

"We are not seeing a recession-scenario in our case, rather the result of things going back to normal after several years of unexpectedly dynamic growth," he was quoted as saying.

"So long as raw material costs continue to rise, it is very unlikely that steel prices will come down," Eder said, adding price cuts in South Africa were due to specific local factors.

Amid signs of softening prices on the global market, ArcelorMittal (ISPA.AS: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz)(MT.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), the world's largest steelmaker said last week it was preparing to cut output by up to 15 percent, easing concerns that falling prices in China may affect the rest of the world market. (Reporting by Sylvia Westall; editing by Sue Thomas)

September 23, 2008

Update on Voestalpine steel plant in Bulgaria

It is reported that Mr Alfred Duesing CFO and also member of managing board of Voestalpine has signed a non binding MoU with Mr Petar Dimitrov energy minister of Bulgaria, which moved the company one step further to choosing a strategic location to build its largest ever factory on the Black Sea. The MoU aims to support the company’s potential investment in Bulgaria.

By signing the MoU, the document set out the obligations of both sides provided that the investor chooses Bulgaria for its project. The agreement also states that Voestalpine will use the latest environment friendly technologies and employ no fewer than 4500 people.

At the end of 2007, Voestalpine announced plans to build a massive steel producing factory either in Bulgaria, Romania or Ukraine. It is also considering Turkey as a possible location. It is expected to invest no less than EUR 5 billion in the facility, which would have an annual capacity of about 5.5 million tonnes of flat steel a year.

Voestalpine is expected to make its final decision on the location of the new plant by autumn 2008.

 

[Imark]

13 ottobre 2008

Loro continuano ad essere ottimisti... mentre altri hanno incominciato a ridurre le produzioni. Ma dipende anche dal tipo di output, se ad alto o a basso valore aggiunto...

Però voglio vedere come contano di finanziare un progetto di investimenti delle dimensioni di 5 mld euro ... di questi tempi, non sarà facilissimo...

......

Rinvio della decisione di partire con il nuovo insediamento dal costo previsto sui 5 mld euro, imputato alla crisi finanzaiaria in essere. In teoria, si tratterebbe di un rinvio nell'ordine di 1-2 trimestri, secondo quanto sostenuto dalla società, ma già un analista sentito dalla Reuters parla di "exit strategy" (e sarebbe sensato, visto che non tira l'aria giusta per i maxinvestimenti).

La Reuters riporta anche l'indiscrezione di un giornale austriaco secondo il quale V avrebbe problemi di liquidità ed avrebbe chiesto alla regione austriaca di Upper Austria di intervenire con 300 mln euro ad aiutare il rifinanziamento degli 3,72 mld euro di debiti assunti per l'acquisizione di Boehler Uddeholm.

V conferma che Upper Austria avrebbe investito 300 mln euro nel rifinanziamento del takeover, ma a suo avviso sarebbe stata la società ad essere contattata dalla regione alla ricerca di forme di investimento per l'allocazione di un proprio surplus di bilancio...

V fa presente di avere diverse centinaia di milioni di euro a disposizione in linee di credito disponibili ed inutilizzate.

La storia resta da seguire, ma tenendo conto delle criticità legate alla fase attuale e ad una possibile forte riduzione di investimenti e consumi che vada ad incidere sulla capacità di generazione di fatturato di V.

UPDATE 1-Austria's Voestalpine may delay plant decision
Thu Oct 9, 2008 7:07am EDT

Releads with steel plant, quotes, detail)

By Alexandra Schwarz

VIENNA, Oct 9 (Reuters) - Austrian steelmaker Voestalpine (VOES.VI: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) may have to delay a decision on building a new steel plant on the Black Sea due in part to the financial crisis, the company said on Thursday.

Voestalpine is hoping to build a plant with a 5.5 million tonne capacity in either Bulgaria, Romania, Turkey or Ukraine, which investment analysts estimate will cost around 5 billion euros to 6 billion euros ($6.7-8.2 billion).

But it said the financial crisis could now delay the decision on the plant.

"We must look carefully at the financing. If the decision is delayed, it will be dealt with in one or two quarters' time," spokesman Peter Schiefer said, confirming remarks made by Chief Executive Wolfgang Eder in Washington.

"I think you can already see signs of an exit strategy," RCB analyst Klaus Kueng said. But he said it was positive that Voestalpine does not expect the steel market will collapse, according to comments the company made earlier on Thursday.

Shares in Voestalpine were up 11.5 percent at 17.30 by 1105 GMT, in line with German peers Salzgitter (SZGG.DE: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and ThyssenKrupp (TKAG.DE: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz). They have lost almost two thirds of their value this year.

The company said earlier on Thursday it has no liquidity or financial problems and is sticking to its full-year targets, denying a report it was forced to go to a government province to help finance a deal.

A trader said this could have helped the share's upward trend.

Austrian daily Der Standard reported that the steelmaker went cap in hand to the Upper Austrian province and asked for 300 million euros to help refinance debt raised to fund its 3.72 billion euro takeover of peer Boehler Uddeholm.

"The (newspaper's) interpretation is incorrect," Schiefer told Reuters. "It is not the case that we have liquidity or financial problems," he said.

"The Upper Austria province had surplus capital and was on the lookout for a way to invest it. During their search, they approached us and asked whether we could take some of it for a set time period and at a set interest rate."

Schiefer said the 300-million-euro figure was correct but added that the company has several hundred million euros available in unused credit lines.

Voestalpine is sticking to its 2008/2009 full-year targets, Schiefer added and said there were some initial signs steel demand was weakening among builders in Britain and Spain.

The company does not expect the collapse of the steel market, however. It will give its outlook for 2009/2010 in the next financial year at the earliest. (Writing by Sylvia Westall; Editing by Mike Nesbit)

 

[Imark]

21 ottobre 2008

Post 33 del 21/10/2008

Oggi ha toccato un nuovo minimo a 80,00

mi sembra un buon prezzo per un piccolo ingresso; va ricordato come diceva mark nella presentazione di questa obbligazione che la cedola può essere sospesa ma non cancellata e se l'emittente vorrà rimborsare il bond dovrà aver pagato tutte le cedole.

La cedola del 7,125% lordo è buona così come al momento il rating della società.

Se nel 2017 non hanno pagato ancora tutte le cedole devono dare un Euribor a 3m + il 5,05% e ciò non sarebbe male.


Io continuo ad osservarla visto che fino al 31 ottobre non posso acquistarla ma se dovesse a quella datya quotare ancora su questi prezzi è forte la possibilità che una piccola quantità possa acquistarla

Se questi davvero vanno avanti con il finanziamento da 5 mld euro per un nuovo maximpianto in europa dell'est e trovano chi gli fa credito, il perpetual finisce a prezzi da paura... se invece facessero definitivamente un passo indietro su questo progetto, allora ... da verificare tuttavia la faccenda dei liquidity concerns....

 

[Imark]

25 ottobre 2008

Outlook negativo per Moody's per il comparto della metallurgia nei prossimi 12 - 18 mesi....

Moody's revises Base Metals Industry Outlook to negative

New York, October 21, 2008 -- Moody's Investors Service today changed its Industry Sector Outlook for the global base metals industry to negative from stable. This outlook expresses Moody's expectations for the fundamental credit conditions in the industry over the next 12 to 18 months. This change in outlook reflects our views that weakened economic conditions, slowing global demand, increasing exchange inventories, decreased financial flexibility, and still high cost platforms, given the asset intensive nature of the industry, will inhibit performance over this time horizon.

With the stress in the financial system, softening in global demand over the recent months, which has accelerated in October, and the fall in prices across the base metals spectrum, Moody's believes that base metals producers will face increasing challenges in earnings and cash flow generation.

However, despite the challenges expected to exist at least through 2009, Moody's believes that the longer term fundamentals continue to hold favorable for the industry.

 

[Imark]

26 ottobre 2008

Lo credo anche io.

Ricordo nel 2005/2006 i ritardi e le difficoltà per far fare particolari pezzi che venivano realizzati in acciai speciali che semplicemente si trovavano A FATICA (e a che prezzi!!!) per via dell' altissima domanda del far east; E' un rallentamento, importante, ma solo un rallentamento: credo che già nel 2011 nei metalli piano si riassisterà ad un incremento della domanda.
Inoltre, i fondi sovereign cinesi ed indiani adesso potrebbero essere utilizzati in due possibili modi: a)acquisizioni di assset strategici nel pianeta - anche se nell' Occidente e lo si legge ad ogni pie' sospinto vi è tutto un rincorrere a blindare tali asset; b)Investire a casa propria: incrementare la domanda e se fosse così si potrebbe assistere ad un incremento interno dei citati Paesi e di riflesso i metalli avrebbero una parte rilevante ...
Un saluto

Concordo sulle prospettive di lungo termine, specialmente sulla produzione di fascia alta sul piano della qualità ...

Per Voestalpine (ma il discorso varrebbe in generale per gli emittenti corporate) l'analisi compartimentale è una sorta di cornice nella quale viene calata un'analisi dell'attività dell'emittente e del suo stato di salute finanziaria.

Insieme con l'analisi delle caratteristiche dello strumento esaminato (fatta a suo tempo) che si impone se il bond ha caratteristiche particolari, diverse da quelle standard di un senior unsecured, si ha appunto il cruscotto di monitoraggio di un'obbligazione corporate, che per il resto risentirà di fenomeni comuni a tutto l'obbligazionario (aspettative sull'andamento dei tassi, scenario congiunturale, presenza/assenza di flight to quality ecc. ecc.)

 

[Imark]

15 Novembre 2008

Il drastico peggioramento delle prospettive del comparto spinge le agenzie a riduzioni di outlook/rating nei confronti di steelmakers attivi nell'europa dell'Est.

S&P è particolarmente pessimista in merito alla possibilità che i tagli produttivi possano essere rapidamente revocati, una volta ridotti gli inventari, secondo l'opinione espressa dei produttori e pronostica la necessità che le riduzioni di output si protraggano "well into 2009".

Ad es. per Severstal

Outlook On Steelmaker Severstal Revised To Stable Due To Market Downturn; 'BB' Rating Affirmed

LONDON (Standard & Poor's) Nov. 14, 2008--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it revised its outlook on Russia-based steel producer OAO Severstal to stable from positive. This is due to the sharp deterioration in market conditions in the global steel sector in recent months.

At the same time, the 'BB' long-term corporate credit and senior
unsecured debt ratings, and the 'ruAA' Russia national scale rating, on
Severstal were affirmed. The recovery ratings on the notes are unchanged at
'3', indicating our expectation of meaningful (50%-70%) recovery in the event of a payment default.

"The outlook revision reflects our expectation of much weaker profits and
cash flows for Severstal in 2009, due to a notable weakening in steel market
conditions," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Alex Herbert. "Slowing
demand in steel consuming sectors such as autos, as well as in service centers and distributors, have triggered industry-wide production cuts. While the extent and duration of the downturn, and its effects on Severstal, are
uncertain, we believe that there is less upward potential in the rating, and
therefore a lower likelihood of an upgrade within the next 12 months."

Severstal is among a growing list of steelmakers that are responding to
the worsening business climate with production cutbacks. Producers expect such cuts to be temporary, aimed at reducing inventories within the market.
Standard & Poor's, however, believes that these reductions will be required
for a longer period, certainly well into 2009.

We expect Severstal to report lower volumes in Russia and Europe in 2009 than this year, although acquisitions made in North America will help offset
such reductions. Margins and cash flows are also likely to be reduced.

As with peers, we expect Severstal to be proactive in reducing capital
expenditures and refraining from further debt financed acquisitions in order
to help mitigate the negative effects of the weakened market. Nevertheless,
there is reduced forward visibility, and heightened uncertainty about future
trading and Severstal's credit profile.

The ratings reflect Severstal's position as the largest Russia-based
steel producer in a cyclical, capital-intensive, and competitive industry;
substantial capital expenditure plans; and country risks in The Russian
Federation (foreign currency BBB+/Negative/A-2; local currency
A-/Negative/A-2), where the company's principal cash-generating operations are located. The ratings are supported by a leading domestic market position,
especially in flat products; high vertical integration into own raw materials;
and improving diversification.

Upside rating potential is constrained by Severstal's active acquisition
strategy this year; the cyclical, capital-intensive industry in which it
operates; and its main cash-generating assets being located in Russia.
Downside pressure on the rating could develop if the company does not respond adequately to the more difficult market conditions by curtailing capital spending and further debt financed acquisitions.

 

[Imark]

25 Novembre 2008

Voestalpine ha emesso un bond senior per 333 mln euro collocato presso un numero di investitori privati fra i quali il land austriaco di Upper Austria (che ne avrebbe sottoscritto l'importo più consistente).

Il bond servirà a rifinanziare i loans a breve scadenza contratti all'atto dell'acquisto di Böhler-Uddeholm AG.

http://steelguru.com/news/index/200...alpine_places_EUR_333_million_bond_issue.html

November 25, 2008

Voestalpine places EUR 333 million bond issue
For purposes of further refinancing its takeover of Böhler Uddeholm AG, voestalpine AG has issued a EUR 333 million fixed interest bond, which has been offered exclusively to qualified investors pursuant to the Austrian Capital Markets Act.

The Land of Upper Austria is one of the qualified investors and it has subscribed for a major portion of the bond issue. The Land of Upper Austria and the remaining investors have thus demonstrated their confidence in the Land’s largest company and regard their subscription for the bonds as a sound investment. The capital raised by this issue will be used to cover existing short-term loans. Voestalpine AG’s refinancing measures for its purchase of Böhler-Uddeholm AG are improved by this placement.

Voestalpine will redempt the bond in two tranches, with the first partial amount of EUR 222 million to be paid on December 17th 2010 and the second of EUR 111 million to be paid on December 17th 2011. Fixed interest on both tranches over the entire term of both will be paid at a rate of 5.75 per annum, which is in line with market rates on investments of this kind.

 

[Imark]

25 Novembre 2008

Nel mentre, è arrivata la trimestrale: Voestalpine sembra avere retto ancora bene al rallentamento e conferma il forecast 2008, presentando risultati trimestrali, specie in ordine alla crescita del faturato, largamente superiori alle stime degli analisti.

Nel 2009 invece prevede un unlteriore indebolimento del comparto automotive e di quello dell'edilizia e pianifica un taglio della propria produzione in misura piuttosto modesta (3-5%) ma da conseguirsi entro marzo 2009.

Si implementerà anche il programma di taglio dei costi ed eventualmente verranno attuate ulteriori riduzioni della produzione. Non sono stati forniti dettagli.

V precisa inoltre di non avere intenzione di affrettare le decisioni da prendere in merito all'allocazione del nuovo impianto produttivo (con investimento previsto nell'ordine di 5 mld euro) stante l'attuale congiuntura economica.

UPDATE 3-Voestalpine confirms outlook, environment tricky
Thu Nov 20, 2008 7:46am EST

* Voestalpine Q2 EBIT beats forecasts

* Sees FY earnings matching previous year

* Sees further auto, construction slowdown in early 2009

* Stock down 2 pct, outperforming sector index

(Adds CEO, production cut, analyst, shares)

By Sylvia Westall

VIENNA, Nov 20 (Reuters) - Austrian steelmaker Voestalpine (VOES.VI: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) confirmed its full-year outlook on Thursday, reporting forecast-beating second-quarter results, and said it is well positioned to cope with an economic slowdown in 2009.

It said there had been good growth in the energy, mechanical engineering and household appliances industries but some segments, such as aviation, had started to feel a strain.

"A further slowing down in the automotive and commercial vehicles industries, as well as the machinery construction and tool manufacturing industries, appears likely during the first half of 2009," it said.

The construction slowdown may spread to emerging Europe but the energy and railway industries look stable, Voestalpine said, adding that it is well positioned to weather the environment.

It confirmed its outlook, saying it expects full-year earnings to match those of the previous year. This means it expects 1.41 billion euros earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) after the impact from its acquisition of specialty steelmaker Boehler-Uddeholm.

Second-quarter operating earnings rose 42 percent to 427.9 million euros ($540.2 million) compared to the same period a year earlier. The average forecast of analysts in a Reuters poll was for 400 million.

JP Morgan analysts said the company should perform better than its European peers as it is not exposed to the spot market and has a good product mix.

Voestalpine shares were 2 percent lower by 1202 GMT, outperforming the DJ Stoxx Basic Resources index which was 4.7 percent down. They have fallen 70 percent since the start of the year while the index has shed 62 percent.

Steubing analyst Michael Broeker called Voestalpine's results "exceptional" thanks to higher negotiated revenues for steel, but said harder times lie ahead.

PRODUCTION CUTS

Due to a slowdown in demand from the autos industry, the company expects to cut steel production by between 3 percent and 5 percent by March 2009, Chief Executive Wolfgang Eder said.

He told a news conference the cut could come in two stages, with a 150,000-tonnes reduction before the end of 2008 and a further 100,000 tonnes in the New Year, if needed.

Voestalpine is not alone -- larger steelmakers such as ArcelorMittal (ISPA.AS: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) (MTP.PA: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), Germany's ThyssenKrupp (TKAG.DE: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and Salzgitter (SZGG.DE: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) have also been feeling the squeeze of the deepening economic slump and are cutting or preparing to cut production.

The current climate has also made acquisitions in the sector virtually impossible, even if companies are cheap, Eder said.

To cope with the harder times, Voestalpine will ramp up its cost savings programme and look at production cuts in other areas, if necessary, Eder said, without giving detail.

He said Voestalpine has no short-term financing needs and has a good mix of short-, mid- and long-term financing.

He also warned against taking a too pessimistic view of the current environment, saying that the surging growth in certain European markets in recent years had been extraordinary. "You could now say we are pretty much back to reality," he said.

Voestalpine last month postponed until next year a decision about a new 5-billion-euro steel plant in the Black Sea region, partly on concerns about financing and demand.

It said on Thursday it did not want to rush a decision on the project in the current climate. (Editing by Simon Jessop)

 

[Imark]

25 Novembre 2008

Ancora una precisazione, in quanto V ha poi fornito alcuni dati riguardanti gli obiettivi di riduzione dei costi prefissati, quantificati in 300 mln euro entro il marzo 2010.

http://steelguru.com/news/index/200...lpine_to_cut_steel_output_by_upto_5%2525.html

Recession Report - Voestalpine to cut steel output by upto 5%

Bloomberg reported that Voestalpine AG will cut production and investment and reduce its workforce because of a sharp slowdown in demand. As per report, it will lower output as much as 250,000 tonnes a year or 5% of the total and won't renew contracts for half of its 4,200 temporary staff around the world. The measures will help cut costs by EUR 300 million in fiscal 2010.

Mr Wolfgang Eder CEO of Voestalpine said that "There will be a sharp downturn in economic activity. The effects will be mitigated as Voestalpine is a specialist producer. It is impossible to give a serious forecast on what is going to happen over the next 12 months.''

Voestalpine will lower planned investments for the financial year ending March 31st 2010 by 30% to about EUR 700 million.

 

[Imark]

18 dicembre 2008

Ed arriva la decisione forse più attesa dagli obbligazionisti, ed anticipata dalla scelta della posposizione dell’investimento fatta poche settimane addietro: la realizzazione di un maximpianto per la produzione di acciaio speciale dal costo di 5 mld euro in est europa è stata posposta a tempo indeterminato in considerazione del rapido deteriorarsi delle prospettive di mercato.

V ne ha dato ufficialmente annuncio oggi.

Voestalpine puts 5 bln euros steelworks on ice

Reuters, Thursday December 18 2008

* Decision due to global economic slowdown
* Major steelworks was planned on the Black Sea
(Adds detail, background)

VIENNA, Dec 18 (Reuters) - Austrian steelmaker Voestalpine has put on ice a plan to build a 5 billion euro ($7.2 billion) steelworks on the Black Sea due to the global economic slowdown, the company said on Thursday.

The factory with a planned output of 5 million tonnes of high-quality steel per year had been under consideration since last year and Voestalpine had already screened possible locations in Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey and Ukraine.

"The decision has now been postponed indefinitely due to the global economic slowdown and the recessive development to be anticipated in Europe," the company said in a statement.

It said the possible locations would be reconsidered if the project was reactivated in the future.

Voestalpine Chief Executive Wolfgang Eder said earlier this week earnings in its 2009/2010
business year would be significantly lower than in the current business year, when it expects 1.4 billion euros in operating earnings before one-offs. (Reporting by Boris Groendahl; Editing by David Holmes).