UPDATE 3-Europe eyes full impact of Ford, GM ratings cuts
Fri May 6, 2005 09:56 AM ET
(Rewrites, updates prices, adds quotes)
By Richard Barley
LONDON, May 6 (Reuters) - Europe's corporate bond market could turn volatile next week as it digests the full impact of Standard & Poor's decision to slash billions of dollars of General Motors and Ford debt to "junk", analysts said.
The reaction across Europe's debt and equity markets on Friday was remarkably restrained although Ford (F.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and GM (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) bonds fell sharply. However, the sell-off did not spread to other European car makers or other bond sectors.
Some said the calm may be due to many European investors being away after Thursday's Ascension Day holiday, while others felt there was too much uncertainty to take firm positions.
S&P late on Thursday cut its rating on GM by two notches to BB and Ford by one notch to BB+. The agency warned of brutal competition pressures and declining sales of the automakers' most profitable vehicles.
The move will curb the routes to funding available to the two firms, which between them have some $453 billion of debt outstanding, of which around half is unsecured bonds.
"It's ironic this happened on Ascension Day," said Gary Jenkins, head of credit strategy at Deutsche Bank.
"From a serious point of view that means a lot of Europe was out," he said. "Maybe the market doesn't take the full brunt of this until next week in the sense of turnover."
One bond trader in London said market participants were unsure how things would develop. "We're not so sure whether this will tighten or widen from here, and it's a European holiday," he said. "Monday could be a bit more of a bloodbath."
The key question is how much debt is in the hands of investors forced to sell as they are not allowed to hold "junk" rated paper, and how quickly they have to sell.
Actively-managed bond funds would already have lightened positions in GM and Ford ahead of the downgrade, Karl Bergqwist, head of credit at Gartmore Investment Management said.
"There can't be many forced sellers because of the downgrade because it was so well flagged," he said.
But the move came sooner than expected, with many thinking S&P would not act until later in the year.
"The timing is a surprise, and I think the Ford downgrade may also be a surprise to a lot of investors," said Willem Sels, credit strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein in London.
"The combination of the two downgrades is unprecedented in terms of size, so there needs to be a significant reshuffling of portfolios," Sels said.
LITTLE SPILLOVER
While Ford and GM bonds fell in Europe, other industry sectors were relatively calm, traders said.
"I think the market's been pretty resilient even though it's had some pretty horrendous news thrown at it," said one trader.
By 1245 GMT, spreads on telecoms bonds were only slightly wider, he said.
"I am a bit relieved that there wasn't a more dramatic reaction on the market," said Bernhard Jeggle, credit analyst at Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg.
European auto stocks were mixed, with DaimlerChrysler (DCXGn.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) down 0.83 percent at 1249 GMT and Volkswagen (VOWG.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) actually up 0.93 percent on the day.
Stock in Italy's Fiat (FIA.MI: Quote, Profile, Research) , whose debt is already rated in "junk" territory, fell in early trading and its bond due 2011 was down 3 percentage points. A trader said that the reaction was as expected as Fiat's stock and bonds have become very volatile.
TIMING RAISES QUESTIONS
While a downgrade for GM was no surprise, analysts at HSBC argued it is difficult to reconcile S&P's statement in mid-March that the rating could tolerate several quarters of weak cashflow with a two-notch downgrade less than two months later.
"What S&P did with Ford is even more puzzling," they said. On April 8 S&P changed its rating outlook on Ford to negative with almost identical language to that on GM, and then downgraded under a month later.
"We believe the lack of catalyst, based on all publicly disclosed information, for the Ford/FMC (Ford Motor Credit) downgrades highlights an astonishing lack of credibility on the part of S&P's auto analyst team," HSBC said.
Rival ratings agencies Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings still rate GM and Ford low in investment-grade territory.
The European high-yield bond market will now have to play host to two massive borrowers.
Suki Mann, credit strategist at Societe Generale, said in a note there is around 19 billion euros ($24.6 billion) of Ford and GM debt due to mature in over a year, while the European high-yield market currently totals some 56 billion euros.
High-yield bond indices, however, are constructed on a so-called constrained basis, meaning that "junk" bond buyers are not forced to mop up all of the new paper entering the market as the exposure to any one name in an index is limited.
($1=.7721 Euro) (Additional reporting by Rolf Benders in Frankfurt, Gabriella Bruschi in Milan and Tom Burroughes in London)