Vedi l'allegato 77733
Conosciamo tutti la simpatica favoletta di Esopo e come andò a finire.
In questo caso il lupo è il testa e spalle ribassista sugli indici americani.
Sono oramai quattro mesi che ne parliamo ed è un argomento che oramai ha annoiato tutti. Per chi si fosse messo in sintonia solo adesso ricordo che questa figura ha:
S&P500: neck-line = 1.040 punti - target 880 punti
Dow Jones: neck-line = 9.900 punti - target 8.700 punti
Se questa figura venisse portata a compimento, gli indici internazionali subirebbero mediamente un crollo dell'ordine del 15%.
Oramai tutti i traders del mondo hanno visto figura e si sono messi SHORT. Ma....tutte le volte che l'indice tocca la neck-line ecco che si forma un bel candelone verde ed i poveri shorters rimangono buggerati.
Ora se analizziamo il grafico vediamo che:
1) L'indice americano finora ha seguito in maniera molto precisa le Bande di Bollinger (la parte inferiore è il supporto e la superiore la resistenza).
2) L'oscillatore Advance Decline Net Difference* mostra un miglioramento della situazione per l'ultimo minimo rispetto al minimo di luglio.
*(
Rappresenta la differenza tra il numero di titoli in rialzo e il numero di titoli in ribasso).
3) Durante la formazione della figura l'oscillatore Chaikin Money Flow è sempre stato positivo, eccezion fatta per il minimo di luglio. Quindi, questo oscillatore ha sempre mostrato una pressione di acquisto e non di vendita.
CONCLUSIONI : Insomma uno si chiede se questa figura si porta a compimento oppure o no. Beh, io dico che va a finire come la favola del lupo, ovverosia che il testa e spalle si chiude quando non ci crede più nessuno. L'unica cosa è che perchè questo succeda c'è bisogno di un "innesco", che potrebbe essere una notizia negativa di tipo macroeconomico.
Ciao, gradirei un tuo commento al seguente scritto:
Investors cannot move for the weight of broker research comparing the current conjuncture in the US with Japan a decade ago. While bond markets at least, move to discount deflation, most sell-side analysts still say the current situation is unlike Japan a decade ago. They are right. Things now in the US are much, much worse than Japan a decade ago.
Equity investors are in for a rude shock. The global economy is sliding back into recession and they are still not even aware that these events will trigger another leg down in valuations, the third major bear market since the equity valuation bubble burst.
This lack of awareness reminds me of reports this week that a 35 year old Polish man hadn't noticed for five years that he had a bullet lodged in his head. Like the equity market in 2000, the Polish man had been partying too hard to notice that he had been shot. The BBC report the police as saying "He told us he remembered having a sore head, but that he wasn't really one for going to the doctor."
As the equity bloodbath of the last decade enters its final, even bloodier phase, investors continued optimism also reminds me of the Black Knight in Monty Python & the Holy Grail. Despite being grievously wounded by King Arthur, the Black Knight makes light of his injuries which he dismisses as a flesh wound. The vast bulk of the investment industry fails to appreciate that we are locked in a structural bear market and about to enter Act III.
This year has already seen a dramatic flip-flop in sentiment as the market has begun to acknowledge it is sinking into the deflationary quicksand. For this year outperformance in the US, for example, is over 20 percentage points.
So far the equity market has shrugged off much of the weaker data that abounds, and has not joined the bond market in a perceptive move. The equity market will though crumble like the house of cards it is, when the nationwide manufacturing ISM slides below 50 into recession territory in coming months. Indeed the new orders data for August, already reported in regional ISM's suggests the equity market is going to get some sentiment crushing data in the very near term. But never mind the last standing optimist will tell us: "it is only a flesh wound"!
The structural bear market has not reached the end. We have long said that the de-bubbling process would end only when equities became very cheap and revulsion in equities as an asset class hangs in the air like a fog. The problem remains more of excess valuation within the US rather than Europe, but that will not prevent the bear market hurting other cheaper markets as much. We will return to the valuation nadir last seen in 1982 with the S&P bottoming around 450 (see chart below).
Grazie