Titoli di Stato area non Euro ARGENTINA obbligazioni e tango bond
- Creatore Discussione SINIBALDO
- Data di Inizio
junior63
Forumer storico
Ma che gli frega a loro del default tecnico, non hanno più rapporti con FMI, non possono emettere debito all'estero....
Stanno pur sempre nel Mercosur, troveranno un Hughito che li aiuta.
GiveMeLeverage
& I will remove the world
Al 2017 pagano la cedola, però ugualmente tiene un po' troppo.
OTC cmq è un bel po' più basso.
GiveMeLeverage
& I will remove the world
Quindi se capisco bene il sottinteso, tu ritieni che non pagheranno né holdout né swappisti?
GiveMeLeverage
& I will remove the world
No, emittente diverso.
L'eventuale blocco riguarda solo la repubblica argentina.
drbs315
Forumer storico
Io oggi ho liquidato tutta l'esposizione sull'Arg usd 17 a 76,5 (due punti in più sul pmc ma qcs ho perso sul cambio), vedendo in effetti che il titolo teneva molto rispetto agli altri.
Mi aspetto, in assenza di altre news, uno storno consistente, oggi forse evitato anche dalla chiusura dei mercati Usa. Quindi ne ho approfittato - magari ho sbagliato.
Rimango cmq in osservazione, pronto a rientrare perchè, imho, si potrebbero aprire ottime opportunità.
Mi aspetto, in assenza di altre news, uno storno consistente, oggi forse evitato anche dalla chiusura dei mercati Usa. Quindi ne ho approfittato - magari ho sbagliato.
Rimango cmq in osservazione, pronto a rientrare perchè, imho, si potrebbero aprire ottime opportunità.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Confusion over Argentina CDS trigger
Thu Nov 22, 2012 11:54am EST
* Doubt over whether CDS referencing sovereign's debt may trigger
* Argentina CDS balloons following legal battle with holdouts
LONDON, Nov 22 (IFR) - US District Court Judge Thomas Griesa ruled late yesterday that Argentina must pay holdouts when it comes to make regular payments to exchanged bondholders in December.
This will not apply to a USD42m coupon payment on new 2017 bonds on December 2, but a USD2bn payment due on December 15 to holders of GDP warrants and a USD200m coupon payment to discount bondholders on December 31 will not be able to proceed without also paying the holdouts.
GDP warrants do not count as a debt obligation as far as CDS are concerned, said Ian Harvey-Samuel, a partner with Shearman & Sterling, so a missed payment on the warrants would not be relevant for protection holders. The question of whether CDS could still be triggered following bond coupon payments is more of a grey area.
"There are different ways that Argentina might discharge the liabilities on their bonds that don't necessarily result in payment to the bondholders. That's not a particularly clear issue in the way that the trust indentures are drafted," said Harvey-Samuel, speaking on Wednesday before the latest court ruling was made public.
In particular, the fact that Argentina is making payments to bondholders in December via a trustee (BNY Mellon) complicates matters. If Argentina made the payments to BNY Mellon, which opted against immediately passing the cash on to bondholders for fear of incurring the wrath of the courts, it is not clear whether CDS would trigger as a result of a failure-to-pay credit event.
"The mere fact that the noteholders don't receive payment doesn't necessarily mean that there's been a failure-to-pay on the bond; it would very much depend on the terms and conditions of the bond itself," explained Harvey-Samuel.
"Until we know what Argentina does and until it asserts its position with regard to the legal effect on its proper bonds, we don't know whether or not CDS would trigger."
TRADING THE TRIGGER
Argentina CDS - which has a net notional outstanding of USD1.8bn according to the DTCC - has become a major focus for emerging markets traders ever since the New York appeal court on October 26 upheld the view of Judge Griesa that old bondholders should be treated equally to those that had agreed to the restructuring.
Five-year CDS ballooned from 974bp on October 25 to a record wide of 2,589bp (or around 50 points upfront) on November 16, according to Markit. It then re-traced slightly on Monday, before widening again on Wednesday to 2,441bp at close. The US Thanksgiving holiday means trading is likely to be more muted Thursday.
"When it was known that BNY Mellon was going to be implicated in this there was a concern that Argentina may make payment to bondholders in a way that could technically trigger CDS, which caused the CDS to gap wider," said Sean Kelly, an EM credit trader at Credit Suisse, also speaking before the latest ruling was made public.
"Some of those reservations over CDS have since disappeared, but we don't see accounts adding new risk positions here. We mostly see hedge funds taking profits on long protection positions on the back of the CDS widening."
Some of the activity Kelly saw in the earlier part of the week related to some accounts selling one-month credit protection, taking the view that the court would not lift its stay and Argentina would be free to make its December payments to exchanged bondholders. Now, such bets could well turn sour given the latest announcement.
(Reporting by Christopher Whittall; Editing by Sudip Roy)
Thu Nov 22, 2012 11:54am EST
* Doubt over whether CDS referencing sovereign's debt may trigger
* Argentina CDS balloons following legal battle with holdouts
LONDON, Nov 22 (IFR) - US District Court Judge Thomas Griesa ruled late yesterday that Argentina must pay holdouts when it comes to make regular payments to exchanged bondholders in December.
This will not apply to a USD42m coupon payment on new 2017 bonds on December 2, but a USD2bn payment due on December 15 to holders of GDP warrants and a USD200m coupon payment to discount bondholders on December 31 will not be able to proceed without also paying the holdouts.
GDP warrants do not count as a debt obligation as far as CDS are concerned, said Ian Harvey-Samuel, a partner with Shearman & Sterling, so a missed payment on the warrants would not be relevant for protection holders. The question of whether CDS could still be triggered following bond coupon payments is more of a grey area.
"There are different ways that Argentina might discharge the liabilities on their bonds that don't necessarily result in payment to the bondholders. That's not a particularly clear issue in the way that the trust indentures are drafted," said Harvey-Samuel, speaking on Wednesday before the latest court ruling was made public.
In particular, the fact that Argentina is making payments to bondholders in December via a trustee (BNY Mellon) complicates matters. If Argentina made the payments to BNY Mellon, which opted against immediately passing the cash on to bondholders for fear of incurring the wrath of the courts, it is not clear whether CDS would trigger as a result of a failure-to-pay credit event.
"The mere fact that the noteholders don't receive payment doesn't necessarily mean that there's been a failure-to-pay on the bond; it would very much depend on the terms and conditions of the bond itself," explained Harvey-Samuel.
"Until we know what Argentina does and until it asserts its position with regard to the legal effect on its proper bonds, we don't know whether or not CDS would trigger."
TRADING THE TRIGGER
Argentina CDS - which has a net notional outstanding of USD1.8bn according to the DTCC - has become a major focus for emerging markets traders ever since the New York appeal court on October 26 upheld the view of Judge Griesa that old bondholders should be treated equally to those that had agreed to the restructuring.
Five-year CDS ballooned from 974bp on October 25 to a record wide of 2,589bp (or around 50 points upfront) on November 16, according to Markit. It then re-traced slightly on Monday, before widening again on Wednesday to 2,441bp at close. The US Thanksgiving holiday means trading is likely to be more muted Thursday.
"When it was known that BNY Mellon was going to be implicated in this there was a concern that Argentina may make payment to bondholders in a way that could technically trigger CDS, which caused the CDS to gap wider," said Sean Kelly, an EM credit trader at Credit Suisse, also speaking before the latest ruling was made public.
"Some of those reservations over CDS have since disappeared, but we don't see accounts adding new risk positions here. We mostly see hedge funds taking profits on long protection positions on the back of the CDS widening."
Some of the activity Kelly saw in the earlier part of the week related to some accounts selling one-month credit protection, taking the view that the court would not lift its stay and Argentina would be free to make its December payments to exchanged bondholders. Now, such bets could well turn sour given the latest announcement.
(Reporting by Christopher Whittall; Editing by Sudip Roy)
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
QUESTIONS ANSWERED
Griesa sought to answer the 2nd Circuit's questions as to what holdouts should be paid and how, as well as how the judge would treat third-party banks such as Bank of New York Mellon.
Griesa said NML and Aurelius should be paid concurrently or ahead of exchange bondholders and rejected arguments from exchange bondholders that full payment to the holdouts would infringe on their rights.
"In accepting the exchange offers of thirty cents on the dollar, the exchange bondholders bargained for certainty and the avoidance of the burden and risk of litigating," he wrote.
The 2nd Circuit has also directed Griesa to spell out precisely how his injunctions would apply to third-party banks.
BNY Mellon, which transfers funds from Argentina to the country's bondholders, says the injunction would interfere with its duties to the exchange bondholders and could cause a wider disruption to the largely automated global bank payment systems.
Griesa said BNY Mellon's arguments "miss the point" and if Argentina followed the appeals court ruling there would be "no problem" about the money ending up in the right accounts.
In Buenos Aires, economy ministry officials discussed the ruling with lawyers on Thursday and could not be reached for comment.
Griesa's decision to lift the stay preventing immediate payment leaves Argentina with few chances of a reprieve, legal specialists say.
"The government can still appeal en banc -- before all 13 judges (at the 2nd Circuit court), and at the Supreme Court. In the meantime, however, the stay is no longer in effect unless the court or the Supreme Court says it should remain in force," said Eugenio Bruno, a lawyer advising restructured creditors.
"These are unlikely scenarios, but they're not out of the question," he told Reuters.
BNY Mellon had no immediate comment. Stephen Sigmund, a spokesman for Aurelius, declined comment as did Peter Truell, a spokesman for Elliott Management.
(Additional reporting by Guido Nejamkis and Alejandro Lifshitz in Buenos Aires; Writing by Helen Popper and Daniel Bases; Editing by Kieran Murray and Andrew Hay)
Griesa sought to answer the 2nd Circuit's questions as to what holdouts should be paid and how, as well as how the judge would treat third-party banks such as Bank of New York Mellon.
Griesa said NML and Aurelius should be paid concurrently or ahead of exchange bondholders and rejected arguments from exchange bondholders that full payment to the holdouts would infringe on their rights.
"In accepting the exchange offers of thirty cents on the dollar, the exchange bondholders bargained for certainty and the avoidance of the burden and risk of litigating," he wrote.
The 2nd Circuit has also directed Griesa to spell out precisely how his injunctions would apply to third-party banks.
BNY Mellon, which transfers funds from Argentina to the country's bondholders, says the injunction would interfere with its duties to the exchange bondholders and could cause a wider disruption to the largely automated global bank payment systems.
Griesa said BNY Mellon's arguments "miss the point" and if Argentina followed the appeals court ruling there would be "no problem" about the money ending up in the right accounts.
In Buenos Aires, economy ministry officials discussed the ruling with lawyers on Thursday and could not be reached for comment.
Griesa's decision to lift the stay preventing immediate payment leaves Argentina with few chances of a reprieve, legal specialists say.
"The government can still appeal en banc -- before all 13 judges (at the 2nd Circuit court), and at the Supreme Court. In the meantime, however, the stay is no longer in effect unless the court or the Supreme Court says it should remain in force," said Eugenio Bruno, a lawyer advising restructured creditors.
"These are unlikely scenarios, but they're not out of the question," he told Reuters.
BNY Mellon had no immediate comment. Stephen Sigmund, a spokesman for Aurelius, declined comment as did Peter Truell, a spokesman for Elliott Management.
(Additional reporting by Guido Nejamkis and Alejandro Lifshitz in Buenos Aires; Writing by Helen Popper and Daniel Bases; Editing by Kieran Murray and Andrew Hay)
Camfin
Nuovo forumer
Camfin: Possibile "default tecnico" per l'Argentina
Giovedi 22 nov 2012
La sentenza del giudice Thomas Griesa tribunale di York, mette il paese nella necessità di "pagare, o di ignorare la sentenza di pagare" questo metterebbe l'Argentina in "default tecnico".
La Corte d'Appello ha confermato la sentenza del giudice T. Griesa che ammettere l'esistenza di una violazione della clausola pari passu. Tuttavia, la High Court si chiede come implementare questa clausola e chiede pertanto a T. Griesa, come la sua condanna possa in pratica determinare, come pagare gli obbligazionisti che non sono entrati nello swap e come potranno adempiere gli intermediari finanziari il pagamento del servizio del debito che dove l'Argentina. Una volta che il giudice T. Griesa chiarisce questi punti, la High Court si pronuncierà. In questo momento la questione è nelle mani del giudice di New York. Per quanto riguarda, ha dichiarato la sua intenzione di risolvere il problema il prima possibile.
Argentina, una volta conosciuta la sentenza dei tre giudici della Camera della High Court, se è sfavorevole per gli interessi argentini, farà appello, alla Corte degli Stati Uniti.
La Corte degli Stati Uniti interviene solo nei casi in cui le corti federali mettano in pericolo è la stabilità politica e sociale.
Il governo argentino nel frattempo che la Hihg Court prenda una decisione, deve depositare entro il 15 dicembre i fondi a garanzia, per i pagamenti a, NML Capital Ltd, Elliott Corp, e Aurelio Capital Management, altrimenti la garanzia verrà restituita al paese. In ogni caso sembra che la Casa Rosada è disposta a depositare la garanzia.
Il giudice Thomas Griesa ha deciso che l'Argentina deve pagare entro il 15 dicembre, i 1.330 milioni di dollari richiesti dai "fondi avvoltoio" e ha chiesto che il pagamento viene effettuato nello stesso momento o prima che vengono pagati agli obbligazionisti "ristrutturati", questo mette L'Argentina in condizioni di non effettuare il pagamento dei titoli in possesso degli obbligazionisti che hanno accettato lo swap, cosi facendo l'Argentina entrerebbe in un "default tecnico".
Giovedi 22 nov 2012
La sentenza del giudice Thomas Griesa tribunale di York, mette il paese nella necessità di "pagare, o di ignorare la sentenza di pagare" questo metterebbe l'Argentina in "default tecnico".
La Corte d'Appello ha confermato la sentenza del giudice T. Griesa che ammettere l'esistenza di una violazione della clausola pari passu. Tuttavia, la High Court si chiede come implementare questa clausola e chiede pertanto a T. Griesa, come la sua condanna possa in pratica determinare, come pagare gli obbligazionisti che non sono entrati nello swap e come potranno adempiere gli intermediari finanziari il pagamento del servizio del debito che dove l'Argentina. Una volta che il giudice T. Griesa chiarisce questi punti, la High Court si pronuncierà. In questo momento la questione è nelle mani del giudice di New York. Per quanto riguarda, ha dichiarato la sua intenzione di risolvere il problema il prima possibile.
Argentina, una volta conosciuta la sentenza dei tre giudici della Camera della High Court, se è sfavorevole per gli interessi argentini, farà appello, alla Corte degli Stati Uniti.
La Corte degli Stati Uniti interviene solo nei casi in cui le corti federali mettano in pericolo è la stabilità politica e sociale.
Il governo argentino nel frattempo che la Hihg Court prenda una decisione, deve depositare entro il 15 dicembre i fondi a garanzia, per i pagamenti a, NML Capital Ltd, Elliott Corp, e Aurelio Capital Management, altrimenti la garanzia verrà restituita al paese. In ogni caso sembra che la Casa Rosada è disposta a depositare la garanzia.
Il giudice Thomas Griesa ha deciso che l'Argentina deve pagare entro il 15 dicembre, i 1.330 milioni di dollari richiesti dai "fondi avvoltoio" e ha chiesto che il pagamento viene effettuato nello stesso momento o prima che vengono pagati agli obbligazionisti "ristrutturati", questo mette L'Argentina in condizioni di non effettuare il pagamento dei titoli in possesso degli obbligazionisti che hanno accettato lo swap, cosi facendo l'Argentina entrerebbe in un "default tecnico".
