Imark
Forumer storico
35 miliardi di euro, diviso i 4.400.000 irlandesi quanto fa ... circa 8000 euro a cranio...
Obbligazioni bancarie Banche irlandesi: newsflow, ratings, bonds. Il fronte irlandese dell'Euro. (2 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione Imark
- Data di Inizio
35 miliardi di euro, diviso i 4.400.000 irlandesi quanto fa ... circa 8000 euro a cranio...
Imark
Forumer storico
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's places Tier 1 securities of Anglo Irish Bank on review for downgrade[/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Action follows announcement that the bank will not pay coupons in the future and that it is considering an offer to buyback the securities [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]London, 13 July 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service today placed on review for possible downgrade the Tier 1 securities of Anglo Irish Bank (with the exception of the non-cumulative preference shares with voting rights that are rated C). The bank's cumulative tier 1 securities are rated Caa1 and the bank's non-cumulative Tier 1 securities are rated Caa3, all with a negative outlook. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]On July 9 Anglo Irish Bank Ltd (Anglo, rated A3/P-1/E) announced that as a condition of approving the Irish Government's recapitalisation of the bank the European Commission (EC) requires that no further coupon payments be made on any of the Bank's Tier 1 Securities.
Moody's understands that there has not been any guidance from the EC on when payments will be able to resume, however we expect that this is unlikely to happen until the bank has returned to profitability. However, given the current situation of the bank and the difficult economic environment Moody's would not expect this to happen in the short -- to medium term, although we note that a substantial portion of its loan portfolio will be transferred to the National Asset Management Agency (NAMA) and this may speed up this process.
We also note that, depending on the value of the assets which will be transferred, this could also lead to a further capital requirement. We are also of the opinion that continuing government support is likely to be required to give the bank sufficient flexibility to restructure and establish a viable business model again. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]In addition the bank has announced that it is considering a buyback offer for the Tier 1 securities, as well as for one junior subordinated security and one dated subordinated security. This is still subject to regulatory and shareholder approvals. Given that the bank has, as detailed above, already announced that coupons will be omitted on both cumulative and non-cumulative Tier 1 securities, any offer to buyback these Tier 1 instruments is likely to be classed as a "distressed exchange" by Moody's. The securities are currently trading at a large discount to their par value and therefore Moody's expects that potential losses to investors who choose to accept the offer will be substantial. The review for possible downgrade will therefore focus on the likely losses for investors assuming the offer goes ahead. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The current Caa1 and Caa3 ratings on the cumulative and non-cumulative Tier 1 securities are based on an expected loss approach that already assumed a high probability of the omission of coupons and high loss severity over a three-year period. However they do not incorporate the potential larger loss as a result of the potential buyback offer and the likelihood of being classed as a distressed exchange by Moody's. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The dated subordinated and junior subordinated issues that are likely to be part of the buyback are unlikely to be classed as a "distressed exchange" by Moody's and therefore the ratings are affirmed at Baa1 and B3. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]PREVIOUS RATING ACTION AND PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGIES [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The last rating action on Anglo was on July 7, 2009 when the senior debt guaranteed by the Irish government was downgraded to Aa1 (negative outlook) from Aaa (review for possible downgrade).
[/FONT] .....[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The detailed ratings and actions are listed below: [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Anglo Irish Bank Corporation Ltd: [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]• Cumulative Tier 1 securities placed on review for possible downgrade. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]• Non-cumulative Tier 1 securities placed on review for possible downgrade. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Anglo Irish Bank had total assets of EUR 88.5 billion at end-March 2009. The bank is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Action follows announcement that the bank will not pay coupons in the future and that it is considering an offer to buyback the securities [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]London, 13 July 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service today placed on review for possible downgrade the Tier 1 securities of Anglo Irish Bank (with the exception of the non-cumulative preference shares with voting rights that are rated C). The bank's cumulative tier 1 securities are rated Caa1 and the bank's non-cumulative Tier 1 securities are rated Caa3, all with a negative outlook. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]On July 9 Anglo Irish Bank Ltd (Anglo, rated A3/P-1/E) announced that as a condition of approving the Irish Government's recapitalisation of the bank the European Commission (EC) requires that no further coupon payments be made on any of the Bank's Tier 1 Securities.
Moody's understands that there has not been any guidance from the EC on when payments will be able to resume, however we expect that this is unlikely to happen until the bank has returned to profitability. However, given the current situation of the bank and the difficult economic environment Moody's would not expect this to happen in the short -- to medium term, although we note that a substantial portion of its loan portfolio will be transferred to the National Asset Management Agency (NAMA) and this may speed up this process.
We also note that, depending on the value of the assets which will be transferred, this could also lead to a further capital requirement. We are also of the opinion that continuing government support is likely to be required to give the bank sufficient flexibility to restructure and establish a viable business model again. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]In addition the bank has announced that it is considering a buyback offer for the Tier 1 securities, as well as for one junior subordinated security and one dated subordinated security. This is still subject to regulatory and shareholder approvals. Given that the bank has, as detailed above, already announced that coupons will be omitted on both cumulative and non-cumulative Tier 1 securities, any offer to buyback these Tier 1 instruments is likely to be classed as a "distressed exchange" by Moody's. The securities are currently trading at a large discount to their par value and therefore Moody's expects that potential losses to investors who choose to accept the offer will be substantial. The review for possible downgrade will therefore focus on the likely losses for investors assuming the offer goes ahead. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The current Caa1 and Caa3 ratings on the cumulative and non-cumulative Tier 1 securities are based on an expected loss approach that already assumed a high probability of the omission of coupons and high loss severity over a three-year period. However they do not incorporate the potential larger loss as a result of the potential buyback offer and the likelihood of being classed as a distressed exchange by Moody's. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The dated subordinated and junior subordinated issues that are likely to be part of the buyback are unlikely to be classed as a "distressed exchange" by Moody's and therefore the ratings are affirmed at Baa1 and B3. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]PREVIOUS RATING ACTION AND PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGIES [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The last rating action on Anglo was on July 7, 2009 when the senior debt guaranteed by the Irish government was downgraded to Aa1 (negative outlook) from Aaa (review for possible downgrade).
[/FONT] .....[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The detailed ratings and actions are listed below: [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Anglo Irish Bank Corporation Ltd: [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]• Cumulative Tier 1 securities placed on review for possible downgrade. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]• Non-cumulative Tier 1 securities placed on review for possible downgrade. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Anglo Irish Bank had total assets of EUR 88.5 billion at end-March 2009. The bank is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland. [/FONT]
albicocco
Forumer storico
la xs0186652557 su tlx sub. Banca d'Irlanda a 76 in teoria andrebbe bene per le mie minus.
Ma a Dublino cosa hanno deciso? Nazionalizzano o fanno la bad bank liberando gli istituti dai titoli tossici?
E se nazionalizzano le subordinate vengono rispettate o si azzera il valore?
Ma a Dublino cosa hanno deciso? Nazionalizzano o fanno la bad bank liberando gli istituti dai titoli tossici?
E se nazionalizzano le subordinate vengono rispettate o si azzera il valore?
negusneg
New Member
Ciao albicocco, temo che il prezzo stesso dica che ancora non ci sono certezze, azzerare il valore mi sembra eccessivo, però non si sa mai...
troppidebiti
Forumer storico
molta attenzione se la compri ora la prendi a valori molto alti
questa è una anglo irish XS0194937503 low tier 2 e quei barboni hanno avuto il coraggio di offrire 55 per il riacquisto del bond
http://www.investireoggi.it/forum/showpost.php?p=995203&postcount=2296
troppidebiti
Forumer storico
picchetto dei lavoratori
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5g2W2DnquBTQQwuxpvhezMk2NT0gQ
Imark
Forumer storico
Fanno un'agenzia deputata a rilevare dalle banche una parte degli asset tossici. Con due problemi: 1) che a quelli che erano gli asset tossici di ieri altri potrebbero aggiungersi domani, ed allora, che si fa ?; 2) a quale prezzo questi asset tossici vanno rilevati ? Perché se il prezzo fosse troppo alto, si grava il bilancio pubblico di costi ulteriori, se fosse troppo vicino ai prezzi di mercato, si generano minusvalenze significative in capo alle banche (e poi tocca ricapitalizzarle nuovamente).
Situazione complicata...
troppidebiti
Forumer storico
gaudente ci ha abbandonato e non riesco ad avere una view macro dell' irlanda
albicocco
Forumer storico
1000 grazie a Negusneg a Troppidebiti e a i98mark.
Ho deciso: cerco qualcosa d'altro .
Il fatto è che sono uscito (bene) da Wind Acquisition che mi aveva abituato a cedoloni sostanziosi; ora mi accontenterei di un rendimento del 6, 7% magari trovando una subordinata molto sotto la pari che mi consenta compensazioni con le tante minus.
Ho deciso: cerco qualcosa d'altro .
Il fatto è che sono uscito (bene) da Wind Acquisition che mi aveva abituato a cedoloni sostanziosi; ora mi accontenterei di un rendimento del 6, 7% magari trovando una subordinata molto sotto la pari che mi consenta compensazioni con le tante minus.
Imark
Forumer storico
Complicata era ... complicata resta...
Arriva la bad bank irlandese... ma resta incognita per ora la info più importante, ossia a quale sconto verranno rilevati i bad asset (80-90 mld euro in valore nominale) dalle banche.
E tuttavia, arrivano le prime indicazioni (notizie certe si avranno il 16 settembre, quando il disegno di legge istitutivo della NAMA verrà in discussione in Parlamento).
Il ministro delle finanze ha infatti anticipato che il criterio sarà quello del "valore di lungo termine" di tali asset (che potrebbe essere anche superiore, si intende, a quello di mercato attuale), precisando tuttavia che esso sarà, in molti casi, "significativamente inferiore" a quello nominale dell'asset preso in carico (prevalentemente si tratta di finanziamenti all'immobiliare).
Le dimensioni dello sconto segneranno anche se ed in che misura le due maggiori banche prestatrici, Boi e Allied Irish, richiederanno ulteriori iniezioni di capitale pubblico, in aggiunta a quelle già effettuate con l'ingresso dello Stato al 25% del loro capitale sociale.
Gli 80 e passa miliardi in valore nominale in carico a NAMA eccederebbero il valore degli asset nel segmento real estate di colossi del credito quali GECC o Morgan Stanley.
NAMA avrà poteri pieni sugli asset, ergo le banche cesseranno di rispondere della loro performance e il valore di mercato degli stessi non inciderà sui loro bilanci (in questo, la bad bank irlandese è più friendly nei confronti delle banche di quelle tedesche, perché effettivamente trasferisce il rischio in carico allo Stato, salvo ovviamente vedere a che prezzo saranno rilevati gli asset).
Viene da pensare al leggere che i loans erogati alle prime 50 società immobiliari irlandesi (gli irlandesi sono 4,4 milioni di persone) valgano 30 mld di euro e si ipotizza di trasferirli a NAMA già nel 2009. Il totale degli asset (80-90 mld euro) si prevede venga trasferito entro giugno 2010.
L'esito conclusivo della gestione degli asset non sarà noto prima di alcuni anni, ed alcuni postulano ci vorrà un decennio per NAMA onde disporne.
UPDATE 1-Ireland gives "bad bank" wide powers; questions remain
* Govt will give estimate of cost of "bad bank" in Sept
* Detail of how discount will be calculated still to come
* Loans will be valued to reflect long-term economic value
* "Bad bank" will have wide powers to deal with assets
* "Bad bank" should be up and running in autumn
(Recasts following publication of report)
By Carmel Crimmins and Padraic Halpin
DUBLIN, July 30 (Reuters) - Ireland unveiled a draft law on Thursday giving its "bad bank" scheme wide powers to deal with the legacy of a devastating property crash but investors will have to wait until September for clues on how much it will cost.
Ireland was the first country in Europe to propose a nationwide "bad bank" plan to deal with tens of billions of euros in risky property loans that brought its banking system to the brink of collapse, exacerbating an already severe recession.
"The need to clean up the balance sheets of the financial institutions in Ireland -- that's the underlying policy here," Finance Minister Brian Lenihan told a news conference presenting the long-awaited 136-page draft bill.
The most crucial piece of information, what sort of discount the new National Asset Management Agency (NAMA) will demand from the banks in exchange for property loans and associated assets with a book value of 80-90 billion euros, was not included in the document.
But details of how that discount will be calculated along with an estimate of how much NAMA will have to issue in bonds to pay for the assets will be given on September 16, when parliament meets to debate the bill.
Lenihan stressed that NAMA would buy the loans at a price that reflected the assets' longer-term economic value, which in many cases would be "significantly less" than the loan.
The size of that discount will dictate whether the top two lenders, Bank of Ireland (BKIR.I) and Allied Irish Banks (ALBK.I), will require additional state funds on top of an existing 25 percent indirect stake in each lender.
"The picture will become clearer on September 16," Lenihan said.
But the full capital impact on the banks will not be known until the end of June 2010 when over 10,000 loans are moved onto NAMA's books.
POWERS TO SEIZE
At a nominal value of 80 billion euros, NAMA's assets will dwarf the holdings of industry heavyweights GE Capital Real Estate and Morgan Stanley Real Estate, and give it unprecedented influence on property valuations.
Around a quarter of its assets will be based in the UK, mainly in London and Northern Ireland.
The discount on the assets, which will include luxury hotels, office blocks, half-finished projects and land sites from County Antrim to County Waterford, will be decided on a case-by-case basis.
Under the legislation, NAMA will have wide powers to purchase, hold and dispose of assets and will be able to seize collateral, including racehorses, shares and private residences belonging to insolvent developers, if necessary.
Some of the loans are still performing.
"Borrowers who continue to meet their contractual obligations, of course, have no reason to worry - their rights are fully protected," the finance ministry said in a statement.
The agency will start taking over loans later this year and a source familiar with the situation told Reuters that the assets of Ireland's top 50 property developers, with a book value of around 30 billion euros, would be transferred by the end of this year.
Removing the risky property loans will free up the banks' balance sheets and the government hopes, restore the flow of credit throughout the economy.
Lenihan said NAMA's progress would be reviewed after five years but economist Peter Bacon, who advised the government on setting up the "bad bank", said it could take 10 years for the agency to wrap up.
"We will know the outcome of this at the end of the day and the end of the day may be a decade away."
(Editing by Stephen Nisbet)