Obbligazioni bancarie Banche irlandesi: newsflow, ratings, bonds. Il fronte irlandese dell'Euro. (3 lettori)

Topgun1976

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Irlanda, Patrick Honohan sarà il nuovo governatore Banca Irlanda

giovedì 3 settembre 2009 16:25

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DUBLINO, 3 settembre (Reuters) - L'economista e docente universitario Patrick Honohan sarà il prossimo governatore della Banca d'Irlanda.
Lo ha detto il dipartimento delle Finanze. L'annuncio formale sarà effettuato più tardi dal ministro delle Finanze irlandese Brian Lenihan.
Honohan prenderà il posto di John Hurley.
E' professore di economia al Trinity College di Dublino e si è interessato di studi sulle crisi finanziarie sistemiche e i costi fiscali degli interventi nelle crisi bancarie.Tra i sui precedenti incarichi, Honohan ha lavorato anche alla Banca Mondiale e come previsto farà parte anche del consiglio Bce.
La sua nomina rompe una tradizione decennale che vede la scelta del governatore della banca centrale irlandese tra gli uomini di vertice dell'amministrazione pubblica.
 
solenoide

solenoide

Forumer storico
NAMA documento 16 settembre 2009

Aggiornamento dal sito NAMA , si conferma che sono stati identificati i loans da trasferire , il debito subordinato continua a non rientrare tra gli assets direttamente interessati.

http://www.nama.ie/Publications/2009/Supplementary_Documentation.pdf

pagina 3 :

NAMA High level Statistics
• Based on work undertaken by the interim NAMA in relation to certain of the guaranteed institutions i.e. Allied Irish
Bank, Bank of Ireland, Anglo Irish Bank, Irish Nationwide Building Society, Educational Building Society,
approximately €77 billion book value of loans have been identified as eligible loan assets likely for transfer to
NAMA.
• This €77 billion, estimated by the institutions, is made up of approximately €49 billion land and development and
approximately €28 billion associated loans.
• The portfolio identified for potential transfer consists of almost 2,000 customers with approximately 21,500 loans.
• The average loan to value (LTV) rate for these loans is approximately 77%.
• NAMA estimate that of the total €77 billion portfolio identified for potential transfer to NAMA, approximately €9
billion is interest roll up.
 
albicocco

albicocco

Forumer storico
Su Corsera di oggi la notizia che lo stato acquisterà i bad loan iimmobiliari delle banche irlandesi al 70% del nominale.
Una curiosità: la comunità europea non dice niente? anche da noi Tremonti potrebbe acquistare i debiti di Risanamento ( con cambio casacca di Profumo e Passera)?
I bond delle banche Eire dovrebbero risalire?
In particolare il subordinato di B. of Ireland su Tlx potrebbe finalmente riprendersi?
 

Topgun1976

Guest
albicocco ha scritto:
Su Corsera di oggi la notizia che lo stato acquisterà i bad loan iimmobiliari delle banche irlandesi al 70% del nominale.
Una curiosità: la comunità europea non dice niente? anche da noi Tremonti potrebbe acquistare i debiti di Risanamento ( con cambio casacca di Profumo e Passera)?
I bond delle banche Eire dovrebbero risalire?
In particolare il subordinato di B. of Ireland su Tlx potrebbe finalmente riprendersi?
Clicca per allargare...

Certamente il 70% è un buon prezzo e leva un grosso problema alla banca ,portandolo in carico allo stato..
 
balcarlo

balcarlo

proudly a senior
solenoide ha scritto:
Aggiornamento dal sito NAMA , si conferma che sono stati identificati i loans da trasferire , il debito subordinato continua a non rientrare tra gli assets direttamente interessati.

http://www.nama.ie/Publications/2009/Supplementary_Documentation.pdf

pagina 3 :

NAMA High level Statistics
• Based on work undertaken by the interim NAMA in relation to certain of the guaranteed institutions i.e. Allied Irish
Bank, Bank of Ireland, Anglo Irish Bank, Irish Nationwide Building Society, Educational Building Society,
approximately €77 billion book value of loans have been identified as eligible loan assets likely for transfer to
NAMA.
• This €77 billion, estimated by the institutions, is made up of approximately €49 billion land and development and
approximately €28 billion associated loans.
• The portfolio identified for potential transfer consists of almost 2,000 customers with approximately 21,500 loans.
• The average loan to value (LTV) rate for these loans is approximately 77%.
• NAMA estimate that of the total €77 billion portfolio identified for potential transfer to NAMA, approximately €9
billion is interest roll up.
Clicca per allargare...

Molto bene........
 

Imark

Forumer storico
Il debito irlandese complessivo, comprendendo quello del NAMA, è proiettato al 110% del PIL per fine 2010. Per Fitch è probabile che resti a quei livelli nel 2011. Era pari al 25% nel 2007. Al netto del NAMA, il debito si attesta sull'80% del PIL.

Bisognerà poi vedere quanto il NAMA riuscirà a recuperare per tramite della gestione degli asset rilevati dalle banche, e può darsi che alla lunga la situazione migliori.

Comunque il dato va visto anche alla luce del cash disponibile nell'erario pubblico (Fitch lo stima al 15% del PIL nel Q3/2009), per cui il debito netto risulta inferiore a quello prima indicato, che è il dato del debito lordo.

Fitch Downgrades Ireland's Sovereign Rating to 'AA-'; Outlook Stable

04 Nov 2009 6:09 AM (EST)

Fitch Ratings-London-04 November 2009: Fitch Ratings has today downgraded the Republic of Ireland's Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) to 'AA- ' from 'AA+' respectively. The Outlook on the Long-term IDR is Stable. Fitch has simultaneously affirmed Ireland's Short-term foreign currency IDR at 'F1+' and Country Ceiling at 'AAA', the ceiling appropriate for euro area members.

"Fitch has downgraded Ireland's sovereign ratings to reflect the severity of the decline in nominal GDP and the exceptional rise in government liabilities," said Chris Pryce, Director in Fitch's Sovereign Group. "However, the agency notes the vigour of the government's fiscal consolidation response to date, the expectation of further aggressive budget tightening and the likely success of the National Asset Management Agency (NAMA) in rehabilitating the banking sector. All these factors have helped stabilise the outlook for Ireland's creditworthiness."

The rating downgrade partly reflects the severity of the economic adjustment underway, entailing a far greater actual and expected decline in nominal GDP, about 9% in 2009 and a cumulative 14% between 2007 and 2010, compared with other high grade sovereigns.

Fitch believes that private sector de-leveraging pressures are likely to be more severe in Ireland than other advanced economies, reflecting falling wages and rising unemployment, high household debt levels and further expected falls in house prices, whilst the willingness of banks to lend is likely to remain subdued.

The agency also believes that the continued weakness in the domestic economy will contribute to a further shortfall of tax revenue in 2009 of around EUR2bn, compared to the April 2009 supplementary budget forecasts. The agency forecasts that Ireland's fiscal deficit is likely to reach 12.5% of GDP in 2009 and remain at 12% in 2010.

The breadth and depth of the country's banking sector problems have substantially increased sovereign risk. NAMA is set to inject EUR54bn of fiscal resources - a third of GDP - into the banks in exchange for property and development loans after applying a 30% haircut to the book value of the loans. The banks will in turn recognise about EUR23bn of losses and are likely to require additional state capital. Government debt ratios are rising very rapidly due to large fiscal deficits, the fall in GDP and additional liabilities associated with banking sector support measures.

Gross government debt including NAMA liabilities will rise to over 110% of GDP by the end of 2010 (77% excluding NAMA). As recently as the end of 2007, gross government debt was just 25% of GDP. The rise in debt is likely to push the ratio of debt interest payments to revenue above 15%, one of the highest among Fitch-rated sovereigns in the 'AA' range, reducing fiscal flexibility.

However, Fitch does not expect Ireland's credit profile to deteriorate further from this level, as reflected in the Stable Outlook.

"The Irish government's fiscal consolidation response to date has been impressive with cumulative savings of 5% of GDP implemented in 2009, and a planned further round of major spending cuts expected to be announced in December's budget," said Douglas Renwick, Associate Director in Fitch's Sovereign Group. "In addition, Fitch believes that NAMA is likely to be successful in stabilising and rehabilitating the banking sector, providing both solvency and liquidity support and mitigating pressures on the supply of new credit to industry and households."

The agency expects the economy will resume a growth trajectory in late 2010 or 2011, driven by expected improvements in wage competitiveness and dynamism in the large, high value added and diverse export sector.

Furthermore, Ireland's membership of the euro area and its highly open economy mitigate the risk of deflation becoming entrenched over the medium term. Fitch expects the gross government debt-to-GDP ratio to stabilise at 111% including NAMA (80% excluding NAMA) from 2011.

Sizeable government cash balances - of 15% of GDP at end-Q309 - mean that net debt ratios will be substantially lower. In addition, NAMA's liabilities are backed by potentially offsetting assets - over the longer term the government is likely to recoup a substantial share of its outlays to NAMA.
 
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malvi88

Forumer attivo
Ai sempre gentilissimi partecipanti al forum e al sempre autorevole e competente mark, volevo chiedere lumi circa allied irish bank. In particolare avrei sotto mano la XS0208845924 a cui vorrei destinare poco meno del 2% del ptf.
Cosa ne pensate?

GRAZIE ANCORA.
 
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