Bond Greci negoziabili ad oggi (2 lettori)

[tommy271]

Favorevolmente 6 mld ripartito tra le 4 banche major e le minor può pure voler dire zero per la meglio messa ... Ipotesi ovviamente

Certo, è possibile.

Per quel che conosco, i dati che arrivano dalla Grecia son sempre da prendere con le pinze ... previsioni funeste che poi si trasformano in radiose giornate oppure servono 10 Mld e con il passare del tempo le necessità raddoppiano a 20 Mld.

La stessa partita sui senior è una scommessa ... ad agosto su Alpha Bank si vedevano i 35 ora siamo quasi al doppio... ed è passato un mesetto soltanto.

 

[tommy271]

Aggiungo che un altro argomento ... oggi molto di moda nell'Eurozona ... è la conversione dei bond in equity.

Ed anche in Grecia si fanno ipotesi di lavoro (e di calcolo) in questa direzione.

 

[amorgos34]

Sopra riferisce che jpm non sostiene questo

JPM fa un discorso più complicato (che lascerei perdere qui).

Ho scritto che non sarebbe , per JPM, allo stato attuale strettamente necessario un immediato ADC con capitale privato.

Se leggi, sulle banche ognuno ha la sua : cocos, opzioni, soldi un po' pubblici ed un po' no, utilizzo del Fondo di stabilità ellenico...

 

[akis63]

Ciao a tutti !
Do you believe that this T2 bond https://www.boerse-stuttgart.de/en/ERB-Hellas-Cayman-Island-Ltd-bond-XS0302804744 will finally participate on a bail in procedure and what does this exactly mean?
Will it be deleted or will it be converted to stocks?
Is there any chance to be saved and not participate to a bail in procedure if foreign funds participate on recapitalization?

 

[GiveMeLeverage]

Ciao a tutti !
Do you believe that this T2 bond https://www.boerse-stuttgart.de/en/ERB-Hellas-Cayman-Island-Ltd-bond-XS0302804744 will finally participate on a bail in procedure and what does this exactly mean?
Will it be deleted or will it be converted to stocks?
Is there any chance to be saved and not participate to a bail in procedure if foreign funds participate on recapitalization?

If public money is injected in the bank then the probability of a bail in is very high.
If initial equity is negative, then bonds (subs first, then seniors) will be deleted until equity is zero.
If equity is >= 0 then bonds will be converted to stocks.
If the recapitalization is made by foreign funds then there will be no bail in procedure and bonds could be paid back in full.
Private equity investors (e.g. Fairfax & co) could impose a voluntary conversion of subordinated liabilities as a precondition for recapitalization.

my 2 c

 

[akis63]

If public money is injected in the bank then the probability of a bail in is very high.
If initial equity is negative, then bonds (subs first, then seniors) will be deleted until equity is zero.
If equity is >= 0 then bonds will be converted to stocks.
If the recapitalization is made by foreign funds then there will be no bail in procedure and bonds could be paid back in full.
Private equity investors (e.g. Fairfax & co) could impose a voluntary conversion of subordinated liabilities as a precondition for recapitalization.

Thank you very much for your detailed answer.
Therefore I understand that in order this bond not be deleted should the required amount of the recapitalization is not larger than the existing capital (equity). Isn't it?
And the best scenario would be what last year happened when foreign funds fully participated in the recapitalization. Isn't it?

 

[GiveMeLeverage]

Thank you very much for your detailed answer.

You're welcome.

Therefore I understand that in order this bond not be deleted should the required amount of the recapitalization is not larger than the existing capital (equity). Isn't it?

No, it's not so.
If equity (=assets-liabilities) is negative, some bonds will be deleted till equity is = 0.
If equity is not negative, the bonds will not be deleted, even if the required recap is much larger than the existing equity, they will be converted instead.

And the best scenario would be what last year happened when foreign funds fully participated in the recapitalization. Isn't it?

Yes.


PS:
equity or capital is something quite different from market cap, you can have 1 billion in equity and only a hundred million in market cap
it's the same difference as between book value and price

 

[akis63]

very helpful reply
therefore we wait for the results of stress tests.
In your opinion is there any chance for foreign funds to fully participate as they did last year or is this option it depends on the outcome of stress tests?
In case they don't fully participate and in case some bonds (subs first) will be converted to capital, such conversion shall be calculated at nominal bond's value, as was the voluntary conversion on 2013?

 

[GiveMeLeverage]

very helpful reply
therefore we wait for the results of stress tests.
In your opinion is there any chance for foreign funds to fully participate as they did last year or is this option it depends on the outcome of stress tests?
In case they don't fully participate and in case some bonds (subs first) will be converted to capital, such conversion shall be calculated at nominal bond's value, as was the voluntary conversion on 2013?

it all depends on the outcome of the stress tests
market prices seems to imply a high probability for subs to be wiped out and for seniors to be converted (at least partially), but exact information is scarce and rumours abundant, so at this stage every outcome is possible

 

[akis63]

it all depends on the outcome of the stress tests
market prices seems to imply a high probability for subs to be wiped out and for seniors to be converted (at least partially), but exact information is scarce and rumours abundant, so at this stage every outcome is possible

I agree that market prices seems to imply a high probability for subs to be wiped out . If this will happen, shareholders shouldn't previously lost their investments or be completely diluted?