Nymex-Brent ?
scusassero... ma come fa ad esserci uno spread così ampio ?
34$ il Nymex
44$ il Brent ???
hanno scoperto che nel nymex ci pissiano dentro gli arabi per allungarlo ?
oppure c'è aria di tarocco ?
WTI crude oil had another bad week with continued focus on falling demand and the ever-increasing contango between spot and forward months. February crude made new lows ahead of the expiry on January 20 and was driven by rollover pressure from long only index funds plus hedging of excess crude that could not find a home. The spread between February and March were under pressure all week rising to $8 (Dh28) by Friday which represents a premium of 24 per cent.
The carry trade that has been mentioned a lot recently continues and one analyst now estimates that 80 million barrels of oil is on floating storage, almost enough to supply the whole world for one day. Oil traders are scrambling to lock in the huge spreads between spot and forward. It is now possible to buy crude for spot and sell it back out in six months time at a near 60 per cent premium, after cost of storage, insurance and funding that still leaves a handsome profit.
The very low prices can also be attributed to the storage problems at Cushing, Oklahoma, which is the delivery point for WTI crude. After another build in US weekly storage, Cushing is now storing 33 million barrels which is very close to the available capacity of 34 million barrels.
This local problem is having a global impact on the pricing of oil. An example is the North Sea Brent Crude which traditionally should be trading $1.5 lower than WTI crude due to its inferior quality. This week spot Brent at one stage traded $11 above WTI crude. Many are therefore turning to Brent as a more accurate barometer of global market conditions.
So where are we heading? The forward curve is pointing towards the mid-50s within the next three to six months which could be realized if Opec sticks to its promised output cuts. However, the demand slump will probably continue to drive markets near term and we cannot rule out seeing $25 before the turn. As long Cushing remains close to full, the spot month will continue to be under pressure which is not good news for the March future which becomes spot month on Tuesday.
Technically the March crude contract is trading in a wide $37 to $54 channel with main risk still to the downside. Look out for selling against forward months next week once March becomes front month.
e agli americani che perdono il lavoro non viene dato un caz 
che schifo
di questo passo agli arabi conviene più vendersi l'oro che il petrolio 
