2:03 pm - Locked Lower : The continuous 10-yr futures contract is breaking down with 123-20 propping for now. Trade eyes 122 while below 125-16. Offers near 124-25 are containing currently.
11:48 am - Tripping : The market has been tripped up again with supply, and expected larger supply, sits on prices. The fact that near-term data will continue to show deterioration (granted, in 2008) is a given for trade while the new item thrown in to the mix is the ongoing bailout situation, which in no way can be a bond positive (unless they somehow do the unlikely and fail miserably). There is not much room for yields to fall a heckuva lot further (although anything's possible) and the Fed is expected to hold rates in the ultra-low range, so players will be watching issues across the board for signs that global interest in domestic issues is slipping. The "relative safety" of treasuries is the go-to argument for global support, but there are many moving parts that could seriously ding that general perception. And the way down looks like a steeper sloope than the way up...
11:09 am - New Issues :
Weatherford will sell $500M of 10-yr notes.
European Investment Bank will sell 3-yr notes.
Pacificorp will sell 10- & 30-yr bonds.
GE Capital will sell 2- & 3.5-yr FDIC notes.
National Australia Bank will sell 3-yr guaranteed notes.
(Bloomberg)
11:07 am - Added Weight: The market has backed off again with more mortgage related govt buying being seen along with an uptick in the reopened 10-yrs to $16B from an expected $12B. The expected $30B in 3-yrs was confirmed on top of $35B 70-day bills. The added issuance is little surprise, but it falls into "buy the rumor, sell the fact" territory. The curve has held steeper and should hold that slant.
10:22 am - Still Trying : Trade was not too impressed with the improved, albeit still negative,
construction spending report and its decent upward revision. The volatile report saw a better than expected -0.6% for Nov after a cleaned-up revision for Oct to -0.4% versus -1.2%. The short end has headed in to the green with short coverage and lower stocks helping to piece prices back some, but the fact of supply remains a weight and the market looks for larger issue amounts, with the $8B 10-yr TIPS going tomorrow while the size on the 3-yr and 10-yr reopening may surprise to the upside, further weighing on prices. Global bonds are also working to get back some ground but things remain generally under pressure but trade overall remains on the thinned, cautious side. The curve continues to track the steeper bent, with the
2-10-yr yield spread at 162.3.
09:54 am - Buck Pumped Up : The dollar was boosted overnight with a $300B stimulus package via tax cuts getting most of the credit. It was enough to help pull the euro down from its support zone just above 1.38 despite firm oil as trade eyes a quicker recovery in the US. Adding to the negative drag on the euro were talk of a rate cut and the pound's continued recovery as the BOE announced a plan to expand its lending facilities.
Euro support against the buck sits near 1.3520 and 1.3240 while resistance is near 1.37 and 1.3820. The yen is weak with an extension of last week's dollar break out now reaching above 93.50 with some overboughtness weighing now. Support sits near 92.80 and 92 while below there. Above sees resistance near 94 and 96. The pound has generally tread water, trapped between 1.4575 and 1.4440. Most of the action remains in the euro cross with bids near 0.9340 propping and parity postponed. Spot gold is getting crushed to 852.64 (-22.77) while crude is up at 46.90 (+0.56).
09:43 am - Clawing Back : The market continues to try get a little back after the hard sell-off, but things are still sketchy and cautious. The curve has slowed the push steeper seen on the way into the session, but that slant should continue to generally dominate. The
lack of useful, scheduled, events today should weigh on action, while the looming events, including rate decisions (not likely to be shocking) with the big-dog
jobs data sitting at week's end (also no shocks expected as the range is super wide) will be the focus. The
FOMC minutes might add a little spice, and
ISM services should be priced in at record lows, which should come as no surprise.
08:54 am - Tipping Point: Trade will take some time to get back up and running while the market gets reestablished with itself. The reality for the bonds is the fact that yields are at crazy low levels and that the govt will need to flood the world with treasuries. The assorted plans and schemes to buck up the economy after a horrid run are coming closer to fruition, and recent happy talk over mortgage related assistance is a key driver in tempering safe-haven bids. The week sees the
first issues of the new year with 3-yrs, 10-yrs and $8B10-yr TIPS all hitting. The announcements of size today will likely see a minimum $28B 3s and $12B 10s (11) (corrected).
08:24 am - Slammed in 09: The market is getting crushed as the flow out of bonds gathers followers. Weak longs are running for cover on a boost to risk sentiment. The calendar has rolled presumably unleashing some yield seeking cash from the sidelines and an anticipated massive stimulus package could begin within weeks on the back of $300B of tax cuts (Bloomberg). The
2-10-yr yield spread is kicking steeper at 161.7 with the long end suffering harder. Bond prices in the EuroZone and Japan slumped as equities rallied. The calendar is light today with most looking out to payrolls on Fri. In the meantime, trade looks to be scrambling for cover and rallies will be faded as prices feel around for footing. The buck has been well bid with the euro getting slammed as data and rate expectations continue to point lower in the region ahead of the ECB meeting, while a US recovery is seen coming sooner. The euro has been knocked back to near 1.3550 while the yen has been pushed to offer 93.50 per dollar with both currencies back to levels from mid-Dec. Gold got hit hard, losing luster as the buck runs higher, with spot at 855.38 (-20.03). Crude has lost ground as well seeing 45.96 (-0.38) as the buck run helps trump supply issues. The day offers just
construction spending (10) with vehicle sales dribbling out through the day with Fed-speak having SF's Yellen (13).