i goldmaniani dicono che non c'è bolla sui treasuries, se lo dicono loro noi zi crediamo
Treasury Bond Market Not a Bubble, Goldman Sachs Says
By Dave Liedtka
Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the U.S. Treasury market hasn’t turned into an asset bubble even as investors debate the wisdom of buying government bonds with yields near record lows.
The U.S. economy is likely to expand below its potential for the next six to eight quarters, resulting in lower “core” inflation, according to a report released today by the New York- based firm. Inflation erodes the fixed payments of bonds.
“By mapping one-year ahead macro expectations to long- dated government yields through
our Sudoku framework we find that global bonds are, in the aggregate, currently trading close to the model’s measure of ‘fair value,’”
Francesco Garzarelli, chief interest-rate strategist at Goldman Sachs in London, wrote in an e-mailed research note.
As the year progresses and investors’ focus shifts to the prospects for recovery into 2010, yields will likely drift higher, though in line with Goldman Sachs’ forecasts, Gazarelli wrote. Treasury 10-year
note yields will likely trade at 3 percent to 3.25 percent by year-end, he said.
Yields on 10-year notes dropped seven basis points today to 2.43 percent. They’ve climbed about 39 basis points since hitting a
record low of 2.035 percent on Dec. 18.
adesso sulla CNBC ammmericana hanno finalmente parlato dell'asta BUND, e il commento è stato: "la banca centrale ha dovuto stampare soldi per comprare i Bund, ma la domanda è se ci sono abbastanza soldi là fuori per comprare tutti i titoli in emissione"
