bund & c.: la partenza a razzo. Seduti? Pronti? Viaaaaaa
- Creatore Discussione maria
- Data di Inizio
... ultima domandina ... quando vendi le call tu i soldi li spendi o li incassi sul cc ? 
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
golosone 
in realtà una volta venduta l'opzione non puoi prenderti subito il bottino, ci sono le variazioni P&l a fine jurnata e la marginazione, realizzi tutto solo se a scadenza il tuo strike non viene afferrato dai prezzi del future o in parte se vendi in profitto prima
la cosa positiva è che col metodo tims le posizioni complesse vengono compensate tra loro
in realtà una volta venduta l'opzione non puoi prenderti subito il bottino, ci sono le variazioni P&l a fine jurnata e la marginazione, realizzi tutto solo se a scadenza il tuo strike non viene afferrato dai prezzi del future o in parte se vendi in profitto prima la cosa positiva è che col metodo tims le posizioni complesse vengono compensate tra loro
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Fleursdumal ha scritto:
beh gli spread avevano ragione, sugar liffe in flessione today
gastronomo
Forumer storico
'Giorno, che succede al NZ ? Ha 
preso una legnata
preso una legnatagastronomo
Forumer storico
New Zealand Central Bank May Raise Rates to Record (Update1) Dec. 7 (Bloomberg) -- New Zealand's central bank will raise interest rates this week for the ninth time since January 2004 to curb household borrowing, according to a survey of economists.
Central bank Governor Alan Bollard, who said he is prepared to increase rates in a ``way that really hurts,'' will raise the official cash rate to a record 7.25 percent, according to all but one of 14 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. New Zealand has the highest key rate of any nation with the top debt rating.
Bollard is trying to damp a spending spree that has doubled consumer debt in the past 10 years, as banks lend 95 percent of the cost of a home and finance firms offer no deposit, interest- free terms on retail goods. The nation's 4 million people spend more of their income servicing debt than Americans, Canadians and Australians.
``No matter where you go, there's some company offering more credit,'' said Stephen Huggard, owner of Auckland-based Debtor Management Ltd., which recovers debts for auto finance firms. ``New Zealanders don't know what a reasonable level of debt is. There doesn't seem to be anyone to smack them on the hand and tell them not to do it.''
Bankruptcies rose 7.2 percent to a five-year high of 2,995 in the 12 months ended June 30, according to figures on the Web site of the Ministry of Economic Development's Insolvency and Trustee Service. Household debt soared to 143 percent of disposable income in June, from 79 percent in 1995, according to the central bank.
Bollard gave his warning on rates last month after figures showed consumer borrowing rose 15 percent in September from a year earlier and house prices surged 14.9 percent.
House Equity
Inflation has already burst out of the central bank's 1 percent-to-3 percent target range, accelerating to 3.4 percent in the third quarter. The central bank forecast inflation may peak at 4 percent in the first half of 2006.
As house prices have gained, ``there has been a strong tendency among many households to `unlock' housing equity build- up through capital gains to fund consumption,'' Bollard told a credit and finance industry meeting in the city of Rotorua on Oct. 14. Rising house prices and increased access to credit has ``underpinned very strong consumption spending,'' he said.
He declined to be interviewed before the bank's Dec. 8 review on monetary policy, spokesman Mike Hannah said.
The nation's median house price jumped 17 percent to NZ$295,000 ($211,840) in October from a year earlier, according to figures from Real Estate Institute of New Zealand Inc., which tracks home sales. Prices rose 16 percent in the previous month.
Free Credit
Closely held Farmers Trading Co., which has 55 department stores in New Zealand, is offering to sell big-ticket items such as plasma screen televisions and dining suites for no money down and 12 months to pay at no interest. The retailer also offers 36 month terms at reduced interest, according to its Christmas catalogue.
ANZ Bank New Zealand, part of the country's biggest lender, is offering holidays to Pacific islands to people who take out home loans. It will lend as much as 95 percent of a property's value, according to its Web site.
``The marketing of credit and credit policies in New Zealand is what makes it possible for people to spend like mad,'' said Raewyn Fox, chief executive of the New Zealand Federation of Family Budgeting Services, in Wellington. ``We have a fairly buoyant economy so people are lulled into a false sense that it's OK to borrow, OK to spend.''
The budgeting service, funded by the government and charitable grants, caters mostly to lower-income families and gets about 35,000 new clients a year. New Zealand's population is 4 million.
No Repairs
In the past two years, Fox has seen an increase in retail debt such as credit contracts and credit cards. A low-income person may deem it easier to buy a new washing machine on credit than to find NZ$150 to repair an older machine, she said. ``It's like ready money.''
Bollard on Nov. 18 said New Zealand's $97 billion economy may face a ``testing time'' as consumers who took on debt to buy homes and cars face higher borrowing costs, which may result in more loan defaults.
The yield on New Zealand's three-month bank-bill futures contract maturing in March was 7.63 percent at 11:20 a.m. in Wellington trading. That suggests traders expect two more rate increases.
Retail sales fell for the first month in four in September, according to government figures last month. Business confidence tumbled to a five-year low in November, hurt by rising interest rates, according to a National Bank of New Zealand survey released on Nov. 23.
Darren Gibbs, senior economist at Deutsche Bank AG in Auckland, said annual economic growth may slow to as little as 1 percent by September next year. He says there's a risk Bollard will raise interest rates by 50 basis points in his review this week, which will probably mark the end of the increases.
``Cheap interest rates, low-interest loans have been with us a long time,'' Gibbs said in an interview. ``Is it a bad thing? I would argue no, provided people have adequate budgeting skills and know what they're letting themselves in for,'' he said.
``For those people who have over-stretched, then they are going to be facing difficulties if the Reserve Bank continues to take rates up,'' he said.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Central bank Governor Alan Bollard, who said he is prepared to increase rates in a ``way that really hurts,'' will raise the official cash rate to a record 7.25 percent, according to all but one of 14 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. New Zealand has the highest key rate of any nation with the top debt rating.
Bollard is trying to damp a spending spree that has doubled consumer debt in the past 10 years, as banks lend 95 percent of the cost of a home and finance firms offer no deposit, interest- free terms on retail goods. The nation's 4 million people spend more of their income servicing debt than Americans, Canadians and Australians.
``No matter where you go, there's some company offering more credit,'' said Stephen Huggard, owner of Auckland-based Debtor Management Ltd., which recovers debts for auto finance firms. ``New Zealanders don't know what a reasonable level of debt is. There doesn't seem to be anyone to smack them on the hand and tell them not to do it.''
Bankruptcies rose 7.2 percent to a five-year high of 2,995 in the 12 months ended June 30, according to figures on the Web site of the Ministry of Economic Development's Insolvency and Trustee Service. Household debt soared to 143 percent of disposable income in June, from 79 percent in 1995, according to the central bank.
Bollard gave his warning on rates last month after figures showed consumer borrowing rose 15 percent in September from a year earlier and house prices surged 14.9 percent.
House Equity
Inflation has already burst out of the central bank's 1 percent-to-3 percent target range, accelerating to 3.4 percent in the third quarter. The central bank forecast inflation may peak at 4 percent in the first half of 2006.
As house prices have gained, ``there has been a strong tendency among many households to `unlock' housing equity build- up through capital gains to fund consumption,'' Bollard told a credit and finance industry meeting in the city of Rotorua on Oct. 14. Rising house prices and increased access to credit has ``underpinned very strong consumption spending,'' he said.
He declined to be interviewed before the bank's Dec. 8 review on monetary policy, spokesman Mike Hannah said.
The nation's median house price jumped 17 percent to NZ$295,000 ($211,840) in October from a year earlier, according to figures from Real Estate Institute of New Zealand Inc., which tracks home sales. Prices rose 16 percent in the previous month.
Free Credit
Closely held Farmers Trading Co., which has 55 department stores in New Zealand, is offering to sell big-ticket items such as plasma screen televisions and dining suites for no money down and 12 months to pay at no interest. The retailer also offers 36 month terms at reduced interest, according to its Christmas catalogue.
ANZ Bank New Zealand, part of the country's biggest lender, is offering holidays to Pacific islands to people who take out home loans. It will lend as much as 95 percent of a property's value, according to its Web site.
``The marketing of credit and credit policies in New Zealand is what makes it possible for people to spend like mad,'' said Raewyn Fox, chief executive of the New Zealand Federation of Family Budgeting Services, in Wellington. ``We have a fairly buoyant economy so people are lulled into a false sense that it's OK to borrow, OK to spend.''
The budgeting service, funded by the government and charitable grants, caters mostly to lower-income families and gets about 35,000 new clients a year. New Zealand's population is 4 million.
No Repairs
In the past two years, Fox has seen an increase in retail debt such as credit contracts and credit cards. A low-income person may deem it easier to buy a new washing machine on credit than to find NZ$150 to repair an older machine, she said. ``It's like ready money.''
Bollard on Nov. 18 said New Zealand's $97 billion economy may face a ``testing time'' as consumers who took on debt to buy homes and cars face higher borrowing costs, which may result in more loan defaults.
The yield on New Zealand's three-month bank-bill futures contract maturing in March was 7.63 percent at 11:20 a.m. in Wellington trading. That suggests traders expect two more rate increases.
Retail sales fell for the first month in four in September, according to government figures last month. Business confidence tumbled to a five-year low in November, hurt by rising interest rates, according to a National Bank of New Zealand survey released on Nov. 23.
Darren Gibbs, senior economist at Deutsche Bank AG in Auckland, said annual economic growth may slow to as little as 1 percent by September next year. He says there's a risk Bollard will raise interest rates by 50 basis points in his review this week, which will probably mark the end of the increases.
``Cheap interest rates, low-interest loans have been with us a long time,'' Gibbs said in an interview. ``Is it a bad thing? I would argue no, provided people have adequate budgeting skills and know what they're letting themselves in for,'' he said.
``For those people who have over-stretched, then they are going to be facing difficulties if the Reserve Bank continues to take rates up,'' he said.
To contact the reporter on this story:
gastronomo
Forumer storico
U.S. Treasuries Are Little Changed Before Start of $21 Billion of Auctions Dec. 7 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. notes were little changed before the Treasury's auctions of $21 billion of five-year and 10-year notes, a day after the biggest rally in three weeks.
The government's final sales of the two securities for 2005 start with a $13 billion auction of five-year notes today. Treasuries tumbled after last month's sale, sending yields up almost a 10th of a percentage point, as foreign demand for the debt slid. Treasuries rose yesterday after a government report showed labor costs fell last quarter.
``We'll see a pause for breath ahead of the five-year auction today,'' said Nick Stamenkovic, an economist at RIA Capital Markets in Edinburgh, Scotland. ``The key issue will be to what extent overseas investors take part.''
The yield on the benchmark 10-year note was little changed at 4.49 percent at 10:41 a.m. in London, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP.
The price of the 4 1/2 percent note maturing in November 2015 fell 1/16, or 63 cents per $1,000 face amount, to 100 1/16. Bond yields move inversely to prices.
Stamenkovic said 10-year yields will probably stay between 4.40 percent and 4.60 percent through the end of the year, about the same range that has held since mid-November.
At the last auction of five-year debt on Nov. 9, there were $2.61 worth of bids for every $1 sold, less than the previous sale in October. The new five-year securities yielded 4.41 percent in pre-auction trading, suggesting the government will pay less in interest costs compared with its previous sale.
The Treasury is expected to announce the results after 1 p.m. in Washington today.
Higher Yield Risk
Demand for Treasuries may be limited by expectations for the Federal Reserve to keep raising interest rates in 2006. Futures traders have almost fully priced in a half-percentage point increase in the Fed's key rate to 4.50 percent by January, with some predicting 5 percent by June.
``The Fed will continue raising rates'' as the economic growth is sufficient to withstand higher borrowing costs, said Moyeen Islam, a fixed-income strategist at Barclays Capital in London. ``Yields will be higher towards the end of the year.''
Central bank policy makers will meet Dec. 13 for their last meeting this year and are forecast to lift the benchmark rate, now at a four-year high, for the 13th consecutive time since June 2004 amid signs of sustained growth in the world's largest economy.
All 70 economists Bloomberg surveyed expect the Fed to raise its target overnight lending rate between banks by a quarter-percentage point to 4.25 percent.
Yields on interest-rate futures show traders have fully priced in an increase at next week's meeting. The odds of 4.50 percent on Jan. 31 are 90 percent, while the chances of a gain to 4.75 percent by April are 58 percent.
Dollar's Attraction
Economists at five of the 22 primary dealers of U.S. government securities, including Bear Stearns & Co. and Goldman, Sachs & Co., expect the central bank to raise rates to 5 percent by the end of the second quarter, according to a Bloomberg survey from Oct. 31 to Nov. 8.
The dollar's advance against the euro and yen may help demand at the auctions, said investor Satoshi Asai, who helps oversee $1 billion of bonds at Sompo Japan Asset Management in Tokyo, a unit of Sompo Japan Insurance Inc., the nation's third- largest casualty insurer. ``I may buy Treasuries'' at yields around 4.6 percent, he said.
The U.S. currency has gained 2.2 percent versus the euro and 6.7 percent against the yen this quarter.
TIPS
Yields on Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, or TIPS, which are intended to provide a hedge against rising consumer prices, show expectations for inflation have declined. A government report yesterday showed labor costs fell last quarter, suggesting inflation pressures may ease.
The gap in yields between Treasuries and U.S. inflation- linked debt due in 10 years narrowed to 2.37 percentage points, from 2.61 percentage points a month ago. The difference represents the average rate of inflation traders expect over the life of the securities.
Demand for Treasuries may drop on expectations a report in two days will reinforce speculation growth in the economy is gathering momentum as consumer confidence improves in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and as gasoline prices drop.
The University of Michigan on Dec. 9 may say its confidence index rose in December for a second month. The index probably gained to 85 from 81.6 in November, according to the median estimate of 51 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Prashant Rao in London at [email protected]
Last Updated: December 7, 2005 05:54 EST
The government's final sales of the two securities for 2005 start with a $13 billion auction of five-year notes today. Treasuries tumbled after last month's sale, sending yields up almost a 10th of a percentage point, as foreign demand for the debt slid. Treasuries rose yesterday after a government report showed labor costs fell last quarter.
``We'll see a pause for breath ahead of the five-year auction today,'' said Nick Stamenkovic, an economist at RIA Capital Markets in Edinburgh, Scotland. ``The key issue will be to what extent overseas investors take part.''
The yield on the benchmark 10-year note was little changed at 4.49 percent at 10:41 a.m. in London, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP.
The price of the 4 1/2 percent note maturing in November 2015 fell 1/16, or 63 cents per $1,000 face amount, to 100 1/16. Bond yields move inversely to prices.
Stamenkovic said 10-year yields will probably stay between 4.40 percent and 4.60 percent through the end of the year, about the same range that has held since mid-November.
At the last auction of five-year debt on Nov. 9, there were $2.61 worth of bids for every $1 sold, less than the previous sale in October. The new five-year securities yielded 4.41 percent in pre-auction trading, suggesting the government will pay less in interest costs compared with its previous sale.
The Treasury is expected to announce the results after 1 p.m. in Washington today.
Higher Yield Risk
Demand for Treasuries may be limited by expectations for the Federal Reserve to keep raising interest rates in 2006. Futures traders have almost fully priced in a half-percentage point increase in the Fed's key rate to 4.50 percent by January, with some predicting 5 percent by June.
``The Fed will continue raising rates'' as the economic growth is sufficient to withstand higher borrowing costs, said Moyeen Islam, a fixed-income strategist at Barclays Capital in London. ``Yields will be higher towards the end of the year.''
Central bank policy makers will meet Dec. 13 for their last meeting this year and are forecast to lift the benchmark rate, now at a four-year high, for the 13th consecutive time since June 2004 amid signs of sustained growth in the world's largest economy.
All 70 economists Bloomberg surveyed expect the Fed to raise its target overnight lending rate between banks by a quarter-percentage point to 4.25 percent.
Yields on interest-rate futures show traders have fully priced in an increase at next week's meeting. The odds of 4.50 percent on Jan. 31 are 90 percent, while the chances of a gain to 4.75 percent by April are 58 percent.
Dollar's Attraction
Economists at five of the 22 primary dealers of U.S. government securities, including Bear Stearns & Co. and Goldman, Sachs & Co., expect the central bank to raise rates to 5 percent by the end of the second quarter, according to a Bloomberg survey from Oct. 31 to Nov. 8.
The dollar's advance against the euro and yen may help demand at the auctions, said investor Satoshi Asai, who helps oversee $1 billion of bonds at Sompo Japan Asset Management in Tokyo, a unit of Sompo Japan Insurance Inc., the nation's third- largest casualty insurer. ``I may buy Treasuries'' at yields around 4.6 percent, he said.
The U.S. currency has gained 2.2 percent versus the euro and 6.7 percent against the yen this quarter.
TIPS
Yields on Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, or TIPS, which are intended to provide a hedge against rising consumer prices, show expectations for inflation have declined. A government report yesterday showed labor costs fell last quarter, suggesting inflation pressures may ease.
The gap in yields between Treasuries and U.S. inflation- linked debt due in 10 years narrowed to 2.37 percentage points, from 2.61 percentage points a month ago. The difference represents the average rate of inflation traders expect over the life of the securities.
Demand for Treasuries may drop on expectations a report in two days will reinforce speculation growth in the economy is gathering momentum as consumer confidence improves in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and as gasoline prices drop.
The University of Michigan on Dec. 9 may say its confidence index rose in December for a second month. The index probably gained to 85 from 81.6 in November, according to the median estimate of 51 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Prashant Rao in London at [email protected]
Last Updated: December 7, 2005 05:54 EST
gastronomo
Forumer storico
Treasuries slump, retrench part of Tuesday's gainsWed Dec 7, 2005 09:52 AM ET
By Chris Reese
NEW YORK, Dec 7 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices eased on Wednesday as traders booked profits on Tuesday's gains and pushed prices lower ahead of the sale of $13 billion in five-year Treasury notes.
Benchmark 10-year notes (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) were down 6/32 for a yield of 4.51 percent from 4.49 percent late on Tuesday, while two-year notes (US2YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) were off 1/32 in price to yield 4.42 percent from 4.40 percent.
"We are seeing a small retrenchment from yesterday and we do have supply today with the five-year auction," said William John, director and co-head of U.S. Treasury trading at Barclays Capital in New York, adding "after yesterday's rally we are seeing some softness into the auction."
Traders noted that the Treasury's last auction of five-year notes (US5YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) did not attract much foreign interest. That sale, of $13 billion of debt in early November as part of the Treasury's quarterly refunding, drew poor demand from indirect bidders and prices fell.
On Wednesday morning, the five-year notes were trading 3/32 lower in price to yield 4.44 percent from 4.42 percent late on Tuesday. The 30-year bond (US30YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) was down 13/32 to yield 4.71 percent from 4.68 percent.
Treasuries prices had gained on Tuesday on data showing a strong rise in productivity in the third quarter had pushed down the cost of labor per unit produced, while pending home sales slipped in October to their lowest since March.
The data had some investors thinking the Federal Reserve might be less inclined to continue its series of interest rate increases that began in June 2004 and which has pushed the benchmark short-term federal funds rate up to 4.00 percent.
But while Tuesday's data gave bond prices a boost, traders said some of yesterday's action was simply market positioning, and that bonds are rangebound, with the yield on the 10-year note mostly holding between 4.40 and 4.60 percent.
"The range has been very firm recently. Ultimately we are going to go higher in yield as I think the Fed will continue on its course, but there is enough demand to keep us richer than 4.60 (percent) for the next little while," said Barclays' John.
Data released early on Wednesday showed U.S. mortgage applications rose for the first time in a month, mostly driven by a robust rebound in home refinancing even as rates rose.
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity for the week to Dec. 2 increased 5.2 percent to 656.7 from 624.1 a week earlier.
Borrowing costs on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, excluding fees, averaged 6.32 percent, up 0.12 percentage point from 6.20 percent the week before for the first increase in three weeks.
© Reuters 2005. All Rights Reserved.
By Chris Reese
NEW YORK, Dec 7 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices eased on Wednesday as traders booked profits on Tuesday's gains and pushed prices lower ahead of the sale of $13 billion in five-year Treasury notes.
Benchmark 10-year notes (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) were down 6/32 for a yield of 4.51 percent from 4.49 percent late on Tuesday, while two-year notes (US2YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) were off 1/32 in price to yield 4.42 percent from 4.40 percent.
"We are seeing a small retrenchment from yesterday and we do have supply today with the five-year auction," said William John, director and co-head of U.S. Treasury trading at Barclays Capital in New York, adding "after yesterday's rally we are seeing some softness into the auction."
Traders noted that the Treasury's last auction of five-year notes (US5YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) did not attract much foreign interest. That sale, of $13 billion of debt in early November as part of the Treasury's quarterly refunding, drew poor demand from indirect bidders and prices fell.
On Wednesday morning, the five-year notes were trading 3/32 lower in price to yield 4.44 percent from 4.42 percent late on Tuesday. The 30-year bond (US30YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) was down 13/32 to yield 4.71 percent from 4.68 percent.
Treasuries prices had gained on Tuesday on data showing a strong rise in productivity in the third quarter had pushed down the cost of labor per unit produced, while pending home sales slipped in October to their lowest since March.
The data had some investors thinking the Federal Reserve might be less inclined to continue its series of interest rate increases that began in June 2004 and which has pushed the benchmark short-term federal funds rate up to 4.00 percent.
But while Tuesday's data gave bond prices a boost, traders said some of yesterday's action was simply market positioning, and that bonds are rangebound, with the yield on the 10-year note mostly holding between 4.40 and 4.60 percent.
"The range has been very firm recently. Ultimately we are going to go higher in yield as I think the Fed will continue on its course, but there is enough demand to keep us richer than 4.60 (percent) for the next little while," said Barclays' John.
Data released early on Wednesday showed U.S. mortgage applications rose for the first time in a month, mostly driven by a robust rebound in home refinancing even as rates rose.
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity for the week to Dec. 2 increased 5.2 percent to 656.7 from 624.1 a week earlier.
Borrowing costs on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, excluding fees, averaged 6.32 percent, up 0.12 percentage point from 6.20 percent the week before for the first increase in three weeks.
© Reuters 2005. All Rights Reserved.
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Bonjour a tout les bondaroles
penso che tutti i milanesi se la siano già squagliata da ierisera
noi abbiamo già iniziato qualche giorno fa con San Nicola
ric dobbiamo assolutamente informarci su come e dove poter prendere qualche obbligazione kiwi a breve , azzo quanto danno
dai dai
penso che tutti i milanesi se la siano già squagliata da ierisera
noi abbiamo già iniziato qualche giorno fa con San Nicola
ric dobbiamo assolutamente informarci su come e dove poter prendere qualche obbligazione kiwi a breve , azzo quanto danno
dai dai
ditropan
Forumer storico
gastronomo ha scritto:'Giorno, che succede al NZ ? Ha
gIORNO, SEMPLICEMENTE SI è RIALLINEATO LO SPREAD AUD/NZD ... visto infedeli !!!
E' bastata una nottata che lo spread da 330 tick si è poi riportato a 430 .... buono a sapersi come esperienza e per il futuro.
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