Bund e diavolerie varie: LO SPIACCICAMENTO in diretta!!!!

I COT sono tremendi per gli short, anche se da martedì poi qualcosa i funds hanno scaricato nella discesa

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TASSI:DOMANI ATTESA NUOVA STRETTA FED,INCOGNITA KATRINA/ANSA
(ANSA) - ROMA, 19 set - La Federal Reserve appare pronta a
mettere mano domani all'undicesimo aumento consecutivo dei tassi
di interesse. Anche se, dopo l'uragano Katrina, non manca chi
avanza dei dubbi sulla conferma della strategia rialzista da
parte della banca centrale americana.
Gli Stati Uniti sono impegnati nel calcolo dei danni
provocati dall'uragano, ma è ancora presto per avere una stima
attendibile di quanto costerà all'economia Usa l'effetto
Katrina. Per ora, la maggioranza di economisti è praticamente
sicura che nella riunione del Federal Open Market Committee di
domani verrà deciso l'ennesimo rialzo del costo del denaro
nell'ordine di un quarto di punto. Una manovra che porterebbe i
tassi sui Fed Funds al 3,75%, mentre con tutta probabilità la
Bce continuerà a tenere ancora i tassi di riferimento fermi al
2%. Anche chi, come Merrill Lynch, a pochi giorni dall'uragano
aveva avanzato l'eventualità di uno stop nella stretta
monetaria perseguita dalla Fed da giugno 2004, si è poi
ricreduto parlando di allarmismi 'eccessivi'. Non mancano
tuttavia posizioni discordi: UBS, Nomura e HSBC si aspettano che
la Fed lascerà i tassi invariati all'attuale 3,50%, mentre sul
versante politico c'é chi si interroga sull'opportunità di
alzare il costo del denaro. Uno dei membri della Commissione
Servizi Finanziari della Camera Usa e rappresentate democratico
del Tennessee, Harold Ford junior, ha dichiarato oggi di
attendersi una nuova stretta precisando però di non essere
sicuro che una tale manovra "sia la cosa giusta da fare ora".
Un primo assaggio dei contraccolpi dell'uragano si è avuto
venerdì scorso con il crollo della fiducia dei consumatori
americani a settembre. L' indice Michigan è precipitato ai
minimi dal 1992, vale a dire un valore ancora più basso di
quanto non fosse accaduto all'indomani dell' attacco alle Torri
Gemelle. E' un fatto che adesso a minacciare i consumi degli
americani, che incidono per il 70% sull'economia a stelle
strisce, sono le nere prospettive sull'occupazione e sulle
pressioni inflattive da caro- petrolio. Le stime del
Congressional Budget Office calcolano che Katrina potrebbe
costare all' economia statunitense la perdita di circa 400mila
posti di lavoro, mentre gli economisti mettono in conto un
taglio di mezzo punto percentuale della crescita del prodotto
nazionale lordo nel terzo trimestre. Per questo, se domani la
stretta della Fed appare scontata, gli occhi sono puntati sullo
'statement' che accompagna le manovre di politica monetaria per
individuare segnali utili sull'orientamento futuro della banca
centrale statunitense. Nel post-Katrina, il mercato mette in
conto l'ipotesi di una 'pausa' nel ciclo rialzista e aspetta di
verificare se la Fed eliminerà o meno il termine "misurato"
che ha finora contrassegnato la sua prudente politica di aumento
del costo del denaro. Determinante, a questo proposito, il
capitolo che riguarda le aspettative della Fed sull'inflazione
alla luce del +0,5% registrato ad agosto e in vista di una
accelerazione della dinamica dei prezzi proprio sull'onda di
Katrina.
 
U.S. to issue short-term debt for Katrina-Merrill
Mon Sep 19, 2005 12:48 PM ET
NEW YORK, Sept 19 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department will likely issue more short-term debt to pay for the rebuilding of the U.S. Gulf regions devastated by Hurricane Katrina, according to Merrill Lynch analysts.
They predicted a rise in debt issuance of bills and debt with maturities ranging up to five years.

The Treasury will rely more on short-term borrowing to fund what is expected to be at least $200 billion in expenditures for Katrina-related efforts because the costs are seen as one-time outlays, the analysts wrote in a report released on Monday.

In addition to $115 billion in net borrowing needs for fiscal 2006, which includes expenditures for Katrina, the Treasury has a $34 billion increase in maturing coupon debt, they said.

Moreover, the Treasury planned to reintroduce the 30-year bond next year.

An increase in short-term issuance will likely depress the initial annual amount of long bond supply, which has been estimated in a range of $20 billion to $30 billion for 2006.
"On the margin, the high cost of Hurricane Katrina argues against the issuance being at the low end of this range," the Merrill analysts wrote in the report.

Merrill analysts anticipate bigger weekly offerings of three-month bills and six-month bills starting in the first week of October.

The following is the gross Treasury issuance by maturity that Merrill analysts forecast for fiscal 2006 (Oct 2005 to Sept 2006):

Three-month/six-month bills: $132 bln

Two-year notes: $306 bln

Three-year notes: $ 88 bln

Five-year notes: $186 bln

10-year notes; $ 89 bln

30-year bonds: $ 24 bln

Five-year TIPS: $ 22 bln

10-year TIPS: $ 39 bln

20-year TIPS: $ 22 bln


© Reuters 2005. All Rights Reserved.
 
Bonjour a tout les bondaroles





U.S. Treasuries Are Little Changed Before Fed's Rate Decision

Sept. 20 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasuries were little changed before today's Federal Reserve meeting, at which central bank policy makers are expected to raise interest rates for the 11th straight time since June 2004 to keep inflation contained.

The Fed will boost the benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point, to 3.75 percent, according to all but four of the 22 primary dealers of U.S. government securities that trade with central bank's New York branch. Ten-year notes gained yesterday on speculation the biggest jump in energy prices since 2001 will curb the economy.

``The renewed rise in the oil price while the Fed continues to raise rates increases concerns about growth,'' said Vincent Chaigneau, head of fixed-income strategy at Societe Generale SA in London. ``That's positive for bonds.''

The benchmark 10-year note's yield was little changed at 4.26 percent as of 8:18 a.m. in New York, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. The yield was 4.69 percent on June 29, 2004, the day before the Fed began increasing interest rates. Yields move inversely to bond prices.

The price of the 4 1/4 percent security due in August 2015 declined 1/16, or 63 cents per $1,000 face amount, to 99 15/16.

An announcement by the Fed is expected at about 2:15 p.m. in Washington. Ten-year notes rallied after the last Fed rate increase on Aug. 9, with yields falling 3 basis points to 4.39 percent.

Higher energy costs are eroding consumer sentiment, surveys this month showed, raising concern fuel prices will dent spending and corporate profits in the U.S., the world's largest oil importer. The University of Michigan on Sept. 16 said its preliminary September index of consumer confidence had the biggest drop since December 1980, falling to a 13-year low.

Oil Concern

Oil rose yesterday on concern Tropical Storm Rita will strengthen and strike the U.S., three weeks after Hurricane Katrina. Damage from Katrina sent oil to a record $70.85 a barrel on Aug. 30. Ten-year note yields touched 3.98 percent two days later. Crude oil futures, which have risen 43 percent over the past 12 months, fell 1.6 percent today.

``If oil continues to rise above $70 a barrel, this will cause yields to fall,'' said Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, a fixed- income strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in London. ``Rising oil worries investors about growth.''

Economists at four of the 22 primary dealers including UBS Securities LLC said the central bank won't increase its benchmark interest rate, the first time since at least May that all haven't agreed on higher rates.

Crude oil prices near record highs will encourage central bank policy makers to signal more increases in its key rate to keep inflation from accelerating, economists such as Michael Thomas at ICAP Australia Ltd. in Sydney.

Yield Curve

``Before Katrina, inflation pressures were elevated,'' said Thomas. ``Inflation pressures are still elevated in the U.S. and the Fed's main game is keeping a lid on those pressures. There's two more rate hikes to come before the end of the year at least.''

The difference between two- and 10-year yields, known as the yield curve, has widened to 32 basis points, from 12 basis points on Aug. 29, the narrowest since the Fed began a series of interest-rate cuts in January 2001. The gap was 187 basis points the day before the Fed started raising rates on June 30, 2004.

Two-year Treasury yields will rise at a slower pace than 10- year yields as the Fed today ends its use of the word ``measured,'' according to strategists at Credit Suisse First Boston. CSFB's economists don't expect the central bank to drop the wording at this meeting.

The gap in yield between the securities will likely widen to 50 basis points, the biggest difference since May, said Dominic Konstam, head of interest-rate strategy in New York at CSFB.

Fed Outlook

Treasury yields will rise further as Fed policy makers indicate more rate increases this year, said Takashi Yamamoto.

``We are bearish on Treasuries,'' said Yamamoto, a trader in Singapore at Mitsubishi Trust & Banking Corp., a unit of Japan's second-largest lender. ``There won't be a change in the Fed's measured pace.''

Ten-year yields may rise to 4.4 percent within two weeks, he said, while yields on the two-year debt, more sensitive than longer-maturity securities to expectations for monetary policy, may reach 4.1 percent in the same period.

Economists at 16 of primary dealers said the central bank, whose statements announcing its rate increases have said policy makers believe rates can continue to rise ``at a pace that is likely to be measured,'' would repeat that phrase in today's statement. Three firms said the phrase would be dropped and three didn't give a prediction.

``If it dropped the word ``measured,'' it would be bond positive,'' said Chaigneau at Societe Generale. ``It would suggest we are near the end of the tightening cycle.''

He said an unexpected pause in rates would also be positive for Treasuries as it would signal the Fed was becoming concerned about the economy. ``The issue will then become: How temporary will the pause be?''
 
a proposito delle pazzie naturali merikane

Usa: "Rita" si rafforza e diventa uragano categoria 1
NEW YORK (MF-DJ)--La notizia era attesa dagli esperti gia' da alcuni giorni: la tempesta tropicale "Rita" si e' trasformata in uragano.
Lo ha reso noto il Centro nazionale uragani (Nhc), che ha spiegato che "Rita" ha acquisito forza al contatto con le acque calde del Golfo del Messico e si e' trasformato in uragano categoria 1. ren/liv
 
GLOBAL MARKETS-Oil spike hurts dollar, bonds firm
Wed Sep 21, 2005 06:03 AM ET
By Mark Meadows
LONDON, Sept 21 (Reuters) -Fears of another devastating hurricane striking the U.S. Gulf coast pushed oil prices past $67 a barrel on Wednesday, hitting the dollar and overshadowing signs from the Federal Reserve that further rate rises are coming.

After lashing the Florida Keys, Hurricane Rita was upgraded to a Category 3 storm and could quickly become Category 4, similar to Hurricane Katrina which devastated Louisiana last month and sent oil prices to records above $70 a barrel.

Longer dated euro zone government bond prices rose on concerns the high energy prices and the hurricane's effect were a threat to growth, forcing yields lower.

"The hurricane has been upgraded to four, similar to Katrina, so that is preying on people's minds particularly if it hits areas with some key strategic oil facilities," said Kamal Sharma, currency strategist at Bank of America.

Short covering also hurt the dollar after it failed to keep upward momentum after the Fed raised U.S. interest rates for the 11th straight time and hinted at more rises to come.

Japanese stocks were undeterred by the Fed increase with Tokyo's benchmark Nikkei average closing at a four-year high after rising 0.4 percent thanks to a report showing Tokyo land prices had risen for the first time in 15 years.


MINERS WEAK

However, European bourses failed to pick up on the bullish mood and slipped from 40-month highs as the FTSEurofirst 300 index shed 0.5 percent to 1,211.6 points.

Basic resources stocks were weakest as copper prices fell from the previous day's record high at $3,726 a tonne while BHP Billiton (BLT.L: Quote, Profile, Research) lost 1.8 percent after dealers said investors were switching into other miners to capitalise on higher gold prices.

European oil majors were a rare bright spot, benefiting from U.S. crude for the new front-month November contact (CLX5: Quote, Profile, Research) rising $1 to $67.31 a barrel, recouping most of Tuesday's near 2 percent fall.

Rita could be headed for Texas with refineries unaffected by Katrina possibly at risk, prompting traders to send oil higher despite OPEC's decision on Tuesday to offer all its spare capacity.

"Rita will hammer U.S. Gulf energy infrastructure just as the region is struggling to recover from Katrina," JP Morgan said in a note. "Rita's impact will be exaggerated because any losses will be additional to losses already sustained by Katrina."

The dollar fell to 2-1/2 month lows after Katrina smashed into New Orleans last month and on Wednesday the euro was up 0.6 percent at $1.22 , back at levels last seen before Sunday's inconclusive German election.

Some in the market had called on the Fed to pause its monetary tightening policy to assess the economic impact of Katrina but policymakers ploughed on with a hike and repeated that it would likely keep raising at a "measured" pace.

However, some analysts said a vote by Fed Board Governor Mark Olsen in favour of holding borrowing costs steady added a note of caution as it was the first dissent since June 2003.

In euro debt markets, the December Bund future was 22 ticks higher on the day at 123.50 (FGBLZ5: Quote, Profile, Research) , after shooting up to 123.54 in opening trade. Ten year-yields were trading at 3.06 percent (EU10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) .

Gold hovered just $2 below Tuesday's near-18-year peak as some traders said the precious metal continued to attract safe haven buying due to the strong oil price while others feared the Fed's move would have a negative impact on the metal.


© Reuters 2005. All Rights Reserved.
 
FMI che ha detto che la Bce sarebbe pronta ad abbassare i tassi nel 2006 sotto il 2% se l'economia non ripartisse....

mi fanno voglia di andare al cesso
 
Bonjour a tout les bondaroles

extra-bonds-- avete sentito dell'extradividendo Snam di 1 euro? :eek: proprio oggi leggevo poi dei maneggi nano-putin per far comprare la snam alla gazprom , sarà che ci si può fare un pensierino?
 
dan24 ha scritto:
FMI che ha detto che la Bce sarebbe pronta ad abbassare i tassi nel 2006 sotto il 2% se l'economia non ripartisse....

mi fanno voglia di andare al cesso

sì e come no? gli amerikani stanno rialzando a spron battuto da più di un anno e noi con i tassi ai minimi facciamo un altro taglio con l'energia che galoppa e l'inflazione pronta a sodomizzarci a sangue, questi son dei geni :smokin: :rolleyes: :rasta:
 

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