Bonjour a tout les bondaroles
sono tempi complessi .... per noi..... e per la FED :smile: essere o non essere , to die to sleep
Katrina: Yellen, un pericolo anche per la Federal Reserve
NEW YORK (MF-DJ)--Gli effetti dell'uragano Katrina rischiano di ripercuotersi sulla crescita e sull'inflazione statunitense.
Lo ha dichiarato il presidente della Federal Reserve di San Francisco, Janet Yellen, precisando che tutto cio' finisce per complicare l'operato della Fed. Anche se gli ultimi sviluppi "lasciano spazio all'ottimismo", ha dichiarato Yellen, "siamo ancora ad uno stadio iniziale del processo di valutazione degli effetti dell'uragano". A preoccupare il presidente della Fed di San Francisco sono soprattutto gli effetti sulla produzione e sulla distribuzione di energia, un settore duramente colpito per via del danneggiamento degli stabilimenti petroliferi del Golfo del Messico. cs
Katrina: Yellen, un pericolo anche per la Federal -2-
Per porvi rimedio, la Fed potrebbe infatti essere costretta ad interrompere le politiche restrittive messe in atto negli ultimi anni ed a smettere quindi di alzare i tassi di interesse, mettendo fine ad un trend che ha caratterizzato tutto il 2004 e che avrebbe dovuto proseguire anche nei prossimi mesi. Uno shock energetico, ha spiegato Yellen, pone le autorita' monetarie di fronte a delle scelte molto difficili, dal momento che colpisce la crescita e contemporaneamente fa aumentare il tasso di inflazione, due fenomeni difficilmente contenibili contemporaneamente.
E' infatti probabile che si verifichi un rallentamento della crescita economica accompagnato da una pressione sui prezzi anche al di fuori del settore petrolifero. Se i consumatori percepiranno questi aumenti come fattori di lungo periodo, l'impatto dell'uragano potrebbe generare delle pressioni salariali che finirebbero per innescare una spirale inflazionistica. Nonostante questi rischi, il Presidente della Fed di San Francisco si e' espresso positivamente sulle capacita' di ripresa degli Stati Uniti ed ha dichiarato che "nel complesso l'economia sta andando bene".
U.S. Treasuries Advance as Oil Prices Raise Growth Concerns
Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasuries rose on expectations rising oil prices from the effects of Hurricane Katrina will slow growth in the world's largest economy.
Surging oil prices since the storm will damp consumer spending and unemployment will rise because of displaced workers, according to forecasts in the latest Bloomberg monthly survey of economists. The Federal Reserve's need to continue raising interest rates is ``not as obvious'' as it was, San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen yesterday.
``There still is this sense this is really going to slow us down and the Fed's going to have to pause,'' said Kevin Flanagan, a fixed-income strategist at Morgan Stanley in Purchase, New York. Owners of longer-maturity debt are ``tending to look at higher energy as a drag on the economy,'' he said.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year note fell 3 basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 4.12 percent as of 9:22 a.m. in New York, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. Bond yields move inversely to prices. The yield on the 30-year bond declined almost 4 basis points to 4.40 percent.
The price of the 4 1/4 percent note maturing in August 2015 rose almost 1/4, or $2.50 per $1,000 face amount, to 101 1/16. The gains weren't enough to keep the note from heading for its first weekly drop since the period ended Aug. 5, pushing the yield up 8 basis points this week.
Economists cut their year-end yield estimate to 4.5 percent, according to the median of 55 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey conducted from Aug. 31 to Sept. 8. The previous forecast a month ago was 4.6 percent.
``For anyone to say that there's no chance of a pause, that's probably a little bit hasty,'' said Jim Collins, an interest-rate strategist in Chicago at Citigroup Inc. The firm and Morgan Stanley are among the 22 primary dealers of U.S. government securities that trade with the Fed.
`Probable Scenario'
Yellen said the Fed's need to continue increasing rates still remains a ``probable scenario'' for the central bank. Chicago Fed President Michael Moskow said Sept. 7 that inflation pressures require ``appropriate'' interest-rate increases, even with a possible economic slowdown caused by the storm. Yellen doesn't vote on interest rates this year; Moskow does.
The economy will grow at a 3.6 percent annual rate from July through September instead of the 4.1 percent forecasters predicted a month ago, based on the median estimate in the Bloomberg survey. At the same time, the economists increased their estimates for inflation, saying the consumer price index will rise 3.5 percent, up from 3 percent in the last survey.
``The Fed is in a difficult position given the hurricane,'' said Brian Stine, an investment strategist at Allegiant Asset Management in Cleveland. ``The Fed is kind of flying blind.'' He expects the yield to end the year at about 4 percent.
Oil and Bonds
Prices of goods imported into the U.S. rose in August by the most in five months as crude oil costs climbed even before Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast, the government said today. Import prices increased 1.3 percent after a 0.8 percent gain in July that was less than originally reported, the Labor Department said. The July import price index excluding petroleum was revised to a 0.2 percent decline from a 0.1 percent drop.
Crude oil for October delivery rose as much as 70 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $65.19 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Crude futures reached an all-time high of $70.85 a barrel on Aug. 30.
Oil prices and 10-year Treasury yields moved in the opposite direction 70 percent of the time in the last 30 days, according to Bloomberg correlation data. The inverse correlation started in July. In the last year, oil prices and yields moved in the same direction about 5 percent of the time.
Slower Growth
The Fed has raised its overnight target lending rate between banks by a quarter-percentage point at each of the 10 meetings since June 2004, bringing the rate to 3.5 percent.
Interest-rate futures show traders expect a 100 percent chance the central bank will raise its target rate to 3.75 percent from 3.50 percent on Sept. 20. The odds fell to about 70 percent last week after the hurricane.
The difference in yield between two- and 10-year Treasuries narrowed 1 basis point to 27 basis points today. The gap, known among traders as the yield curve, has widened from 12 basis points on Aug. 29 as some investors increased bets the Fed may refrain from raising rates this month.
Treasuries may have also received a boost as dealers buy government debt to reverse hedges set up in connection with the sale today of $3 billion of 10-year notes by mortgage finance company Fannie Mae, said traders including Thomas Tucci of Mizuho Securities in Jersey City, New Jersey.
The debt will be sold through Merrill Lynch & Co., Morgan Stanley and UBS Securities LLC.
China
Treasuries also rose as an official from the People's Bank of China indicated the country doesn't plan to sell ``large amounts of U.S. bonds. The comments damped speculation that the ending of the yuan's fixed link to the dollar might lead China's government to change the composition of its $711 billion foreign- exchange reserves, second only to Japan.
``If we sell large amount of U.S. treasuries, it would cause the price to plunge and they won't be able to sell any,'' Deputy Governor Ma Delun said today at the World Economic Forum in Beijing. ``We're not going to do that.''
The People's Bank of China spent 1.6 trillion yuan ($193 billion) buying foreign currency in 2004 to maintain the yuan's peg against the dollar, a 41 percent increase from the previous year, the central bank said on March 2.
``Part of the path higher has been helped by the news from China that they don't plan to lighten their load of Treasuries,'' said Citigroup's Collins.
sarà una stagione in emergenza per il tred, servono leve nuove altrimenti rimarremo in pochi
