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DJ Debt Futures Have Bid After Early-Morning Economic Data
By Allen Sykora
BEND, Ore. (Dow Jones)--Interest-rate futures in Chicago are higher in
the early going Thursday after news that U.S. weekly jobless claims rose more
than forecast and the trade deficit was larger than expected, analysts said.
Higher energy prices may also be providing some of the lift.
At 0756 CDT, December 10-year notes were up 6.5 ticks at 113-09.5,
December Treasury bonds were up 10 ticks at 113-01, and March Eurodollars were
up 2 basis points at 97.575.
"We were already up a bit, then we got higher-than-expected jobless
claims," said John Nyhoff, executive vice president in Chicago with Bank of
Tokyo-Mitsubishi Futures. "And we got a larger-than-expected trade deficit,
which will detract from GDP (gross domestic product growth).
"The best way to characterize it is there is no additional improvement in
the labor market, although there is no backsliding. We're kind of stuck in a
range as far as jobless claims are concerned."
First-time weekly jobless claims rose 15,000 to 352,000 in the week to
Saturday, the government reported Thursday morning. The forecast had been for
a more modest increase to 340,000.
The U.S. trade deficit widened to $54 billion in August from a revised
$50.55 billion in July. The forecast had been for an August deficit of $52
billion.
One other report showed that the import-price index rose 0.2% in
September. Wall Street was expecting a 0.4% gain.
While the data collectively were slightly softer than forecast, they were
not necessarily weak enough to significantly change expectations that the
Federal Reserve will be hiking interest rates again this year, said Nyhoff.
Thus, he continued, the upside potential in the futures could be limited.
Turning to the cash market, Nyhoff pointed out that the yield on 10-year
notes - which moves inversely to the price - is only around 5 percentage
points from the key 4.0% area.
"There is some upside potential yet, but there is going to be a
difficult fight ahead," he said.
Energy prices are slightly higher again Thursday morning, Nyhoff noted,
with November crude currently up 25 cents to $53.89. The ability of oil prices
to remain near their recent record highs prompts worries that it would slow
economic growth, thus helping interest-rate prices, he said.
-By Allen Sykora; Dow Jones Newswires; 541-318-8765;
[email protected]
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
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