bund, t-bond t-note ecc SOLO LONG FOR EVER
- Creatore Discussione dan24
- Data di Inizio
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Bonjour a tout les bondaroles
Ready for nonnetto time
a nonnè cionca il conundrum
Ready for nonnetto time
a nonnè cionca il conundrum
gastronomo
Forumer storico
Treasuries soft heading into Greenspan testimony
Wed Jul 20, 2005 09:25 AM ET
NEW YORK, July 20 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices eased Wednesday morning as markets braced for Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's Congressional testimony to better gauge the outlook for interest rates.
While no one expects the Fed chairman, who is renowned for being exquisitely vague , to fully show his hand on interest rates, the market is ready for him to paint an optimistic picture of the economy that points to continued interest rate increases.
"We would be surprised if the Fed Chairman was less than buoyant in his comments, as he lays the groundwork for continued tightening of still accommodative monetary policy," a research report from RBS Greenwich Capital said.
Since late June, prices have fallen and yields, which move inversely to prices, have risen as the market has come to grips with a Fed committed to stamping out inflationary pressures related to the economic expansion of the last few years.
Benchmark 10-year notes (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) were 4/32 lower to yield 4.20 percent, compared with 4.18 percent on Tuesday. The two-year note (US2YT=RRR: Quote, Profile, Research) , the most sensitive to changes in the interest rate outlook, was flat and yielding 3.86 percent.
The five-year note(US5YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) was down 1/32 and yielding 3.997 percent, and the 30-year bond (US30YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) dipped 5/32 to yield 4.43 percent, up from 4.42 on Tuesday.
Traders are largely predicting the Fed chief will acknowledge what recent data has suggested, that the U.S. economy may have found a sweet spot of strong growth and low inflation and that a continued slow tightening of monetary policy will keep it there.
"The risk is that the futures sell off," said a money market trader. "I don't think he is going to be dovish."
"Some people may be thinking he'll say they are coming to an end with the rate hikes, but I don't think so. The less he says, the more the futures will sell off."
The Fed has made nine quarter percentage point increases to interest rates in the last year, to 3.25 percent, and the market is braced for official rates of at least 4.00 percent by the end of the year.
Notwithstanding the bearish pall Fed policy has cast over the bond market in recent weeks, traders said foreign buying, particularly from foreign central banks, should keep any selling in the wake of comments pointing to higher rates in check.
"It's becoming painfully clear that the only buyers of magnitude are foreign central banks," said one bond trader at a Wall Street dealer.
The only data on Wednesday was the weekly mortgage market index from the Mortgage Bankers Association, which showed a higher headline index based on an increase in refinancing activity.
While Greenspan is always important to the bond market -- and he could easily spark a new round of selling on Wednesday, some traders also stress that technical factors remain important.
Prices began their most recent decline and yields began moving higher about three weeks ago in part because benchmark yields failed to move significantly below 3.90 percent twice during the month of June.
Conversely, benchmark yields, now at 4.20 percent and below a 200-day moving average chart watchers had been targeting, could not quite break through a barrier at 4.25 percent on Tuesday as prices fell.
Any heavy Greenspan-related selling on Wednesday or Thursday is likely to quickly bring that 4.25 percent level back into focus. Should it be breached, 4.30 percent will become the next target as the bond market continues to align itself with Fed optimism, traders said.
On Wednesday, Greenspan appears before the House Financial Services Committee, and on Thursday he will make the same presentation before the Senate Banking Committee. The bond market will also listen closely to distinct question-and-answer sessions on both days.
Wed Jul 20, 2005 09:25 AM ET
NEW YORK, July 20 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices eased Wednesday morning as markets braced for Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's Congressional testimony to better gauge the outlook for interest rates.
While no one expects the Fed chairman, who is renowned for being exquisitely vague , to fully show his hand on interest rates, the market is ready for him to paint an optimistic picture of the economy that points to continued interest rate increases.
"We would be surprised if the Fed Chairman was less than buoyant in his comments, as he lays the groundwork for continued tightening of still accommodative monetary policy," a research report from RBS Greenwich Capital said.
Since late June, prices have fallen and yields, which move inversely to prices, have risen as the market has come to grips with a Fed committed to stamping out inflationary pressures related to the economic expansion of the last few years.
Benchmark 10-year notes (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) were 4/32 lower to yield 4.20 percent, compared with 4.18 percent on Tuesday. The two-year note (US2YT=RRR: Quote, Profile, Research) , the most sensitive to changes in the interest rate outlook, was flat and yielding 3.86 percent.
The five-year note(US5YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) was down 1/32 and yielding 3.997 percent, and the 30-year bond (US30YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) dipped 5/32 to yield 4.43 percent, up from 4.42 on Tuesday.
Traders are largely predicting the Fed chief will acknowledge what recent data has suggested, that the U.S. economy may have found a sweet spot of strong growth and low inflation and that a continued slow tightening of monetary policy will keep it there.
"The risk is that the futures sell off," said a money market trader. "I don't think he is going to be dovish."
"Some people may be thinking he'll say they are coming to an end with the rate hikes, but I don't think so. The less he says, the more the futures will sell off."
The Fed has made nine quarter percentage point increases to interest rates in the last year, to 3.25 percent, and the market is braced for official rates of at least 4.00 percent by the end of the year.
Notwithstanding the bearish pall Fed policy has cast over the bond market in recent weeks, traders said foreign buying, particularly from foreign central banks, should keep any selling in the wake of comments pointing to higher rates in check.
"It's becoming painfully clear that the only buyers of magnitude are foreign central banks," said one bond trader at a Wall Street dealer.
The only data on Wednesday was the weekly mortgage market index from the Mortgage Bankers Association, which showed a higher headline index based on an increase in refinancing activity.
While Greenspan is always important to the bond market -- and he could easily spark a new round of selling on Wednesday, some traders also stress that technical factors remain important.
Prices began their most recent decline and yields began moving higher about three weeks ago in part because benchmark yields failed to move significantly below 3.90 percent twice during the month of June.
Conversely, benchmark yields, now at 4.20 percent and below a 200-day moving average chart watchers had been targeting, could not quite break through a barrier at 4.25 percent on Tuesday as prices fell.
Any heavy Greenspan-related selling on Wednesday or Thursday is likely to quickly bring that 4.25 percent level back into focus. Should it be breached, 4.30 percent will become the next target as the bond market continues to align itself with Fed optimism, traders said.
On Wednesday, Greenspan appears before the House Financial Services Committee, and on Thursday he will make the same presentation before the Senate Banking Committee. The bond market will also listen closely to distinct question-and-answer sessions on both days.
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
oi ric da dove le prendi ora le news? su borsitalia hanno cambiato tutto e non danno più i lanci in inglese
gastronomo
Forumer storico
Fleursdumal ha scritto:
http://finance.yahoo.com/
poi vai nella colonna a sinistra, selezioni Investing, quindi Bonds e ... voilà !
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
oggi il sito fa le bizze,
s1 ad ora imperforata 115,5 tengono duro nonostante il nonnetto
s1 ad ora imperforata 115,5 tengono duro nonostante il nonnetto
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
well se è definito come bottom quello di ieri , tracciando un pò di livelli fibo sino ai massimi scorsi, il 23,6% è a 116,3125 , r1 odierna è poco più sopra, il 38,2% è a 116,875
comunque ancora non c'è voglia di ricoprirsi , vediamo se i 115,5 resistono o no
comunque ancora non c'è voglia di ricoprirsi , vediamo se i 115,5 resistono o no
gastronomo
Forumer storico
Greenspan’s last words?
Jul 20th 2005
From The Economist Global Agenda
Alan Greenspan, the chairman of America’s Federal Reserve, this week gives what may be the last of his twice-yearly speeches to Congress on monetary policy before his expected retirement. Those pleading for lower interest rates—or at least an end to the rises—may find he has not gone soft in his old age
OVER the last decade, as the baby-boomers have watched retirement lurching closer, an aura of mania has hovered over the American marketplace. Telecoms were going to carry workers along the information superhighway to the land of effortless wealth, and dotcoms promised to turn the stock market into a sort of perpetual-motion money-making machine—at least until the Y2K bug brought the entire world to a crashing halt. Now those fads are regarded with (rueful) nostalgia, and Americans are ploughing their money into real estate, with expectations of recouping a modest 20% or so a year on their investment.
Despite the madness of the crowd, at least one man has remained remarkably steady: Alan Greenspan, the chairman of America’s Federal Reserve. Credited with godlike powers by the markets in the late 1990s, he has taken something of a shellacking in the press in recent years for the usual sins with which central bankers are charged: making monetary policy too easy, which causes inflation and encourages people to bury themselves in debt; or making monetary policy too tight, which throws people out of work and makes it hard for people to pay the debts they amassed when monetary policy was looser. Open a newspaper these days, and you can often find him accused of both within a few pages.
Despite entreaties from both sides, Mr Greenspan has held his ground. The Federal Reserve has been increasing interest rates at the slow, steady pace originally promised as the economy inched out of the 2000-01 recession. As he heads into his biannual testimony on monetary policy before Congress on Wednesday, July 20th, all eyes will be watching to see if his words presage any wavering from this course. With Mr Greenspan expected to step down in January, two months before his 80th birthday, this may be his swan-song before the legislative body.
The dollar rose sharply ahead of Mr Greenspan’s testimony, in the expectation that he may hint at more interest-rate rises to come. But there are those who feel it is nearing time for Mr Greenspan to let them level off, as they approach the range which many analysts believe to be “neutral”—neither low enough to spur economic growth, nor high enough to hinder it. That level is believed to be somewhere between 3.5% and 4.5%. In recent months, the Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates in quarter-point increments, most recently to 3.25% (see chart above).
Though economic growth has remained strong (especially compared with sluggish Europe), there are ample worries to fuel the case for restraint. Oil, the fuel of the world’s economy, remains expensive. And America’s job market is still surprisingly subdued considering how far the nation is into the current economic expansion. Unemployment stands at 5%, down from a high of 6.3% in June 2003, but much of the early improvement came from workers leaving the labour force, rather than job creation. Labour-force participation remains well below its 2000 peak, and payroll headcounts have only this year returned to where they were at their last peak, in 2001. Companies are resorting to increasingly desperate measures to shake consumers loose from their hard-earned dollars, like the Big Three automakers, which have offered their employee discounts to the entire country to move backlogs of 2005 models off the lots.
Nonetheless, Mr Greenspan seems unlikely to satisfy those hoping for easier money. In a July 11th letter to Representative Jim Saxton, the chairman of Congress’s joint economic committee, the Fed chief said that the economy seemed to be coping with higher oil prices, and that the narrowing spread between short-term and long-term interest rates, which can herald a recession, should not be cause for alarm. He is expected to tell Congress that he will continue to raise rates at a measured pace, which likely means another quarter-point increase in August. Many analysts expect interest rates to hit 4% by the end of the year.
There are worries that even this is not hawkish enough. Mr Greenspan’s letter also indicated that the bank is not acting to rein in the bubble which many fear has developed in America’s housing market. Mr Greenspan has long held that interest rates are not a good tool for bursting asset-price bubbles. This position has brought him grief from critics who blame him for allowing the stock market bubble of the late 1990s to continue to inflate long after he warned of its “irrational exuberance”. There are fears that the economy has simply lurched from depending on increasing stock prices to relying on house price appreciation to fuel growth—and that the longer this goes on, the stiffer the price Americans will pay when the bubble evaporates.
Besides the critics, however, there are some observers who think Mr Greenspan is ably steering America between the Scylla of speculation and the Charybdis of contraction. Interest rates high enough to pop a bubble could be high enough to throw the economy into a tailspin, causing more damage than they avert. Interest rates low enough to stimulate employment may also be low enough to unleash inflation, as the central bankers of the 1970s found to their dismay. So far, America seems to be muddling through. Economic growth is strong, payrolls are recovering (however slowly), and America’s monetary policy seems to be reviving the dollar from its recent lows, which should give another fillip to consumer wallets. Mr Greenspan’s powers may not be quite godlike, but he may yet have a couple miracles up his sleeve.
Jul 20th 2005
From The Economist Global Agenda
Alan Greenspan, the chairman of America’s Federal Reserve, this week gives what may be the last of his twice-yearly speeches to Congress on monetary policy before his expected retirement. Those pleading for lower interest rates—or at least an end to the rises—may find he has not gone soft in his old age
OVER the last decade, as the baby-boomers have watched retirement lurching closer, an aura of mania has hovered over the American marketplace. Telecoms were going to carry workers along the information superhighway to the land of effortless wealth, and dotcoms promised to turn the stock market into a sort of perpetual-motion money-making machine—at least until the Y2K bug brought the entire world to a crashing halt. Now those fads are regarded with (rueful) nostalgia, and Americans are ploughing their money into real estate, with expectations of recouping a modest 20% or so a year on their investment.
Despite the madness of the crowd, at least one man has remained remarkably steady: Alan Greenspan, the chairman of America’s Federal Reserve. Credited with godlike powers by the markets in the late 1990s, he has taken something of a shellacking in the press in recent years for the usual sins with which central bankers are charged: making monetary policy too easy, which causes inflation and encourages people to bury themselves in debt; or making monetary policy too tight, which throws people out of work and makes it hard for people to pay the debts they amassed when monetary policy was looser. Open a newspaper these days, and you can often find him accused of both within a few pages.
Despite entreaties from both sides, Mr Greenspan has held his ground. The Federal Reserve has been increasing interest rates at the slow, steady pace originally promised as the economy inched out of the 2000-01 recession. As he heads into his biannual testimony on monetary policy before Congress on Wednesday, July 20th, all eyes will be watching to see if his words presage any wavering from this course. With Mr Greenspan expected to step down in January, two months before his 80th birthday, this may be his swan-song before the legislative body.
The dollar rose sharply ahead of Mr Greenspan’s testimony, in the expectation that he may hint at more interest-rate rises to come. But there are those who feel it is nearing time for Mr Greenspan to let them level off, as they approach the range which many analysts believe to be “neutral”—neither low enough to spur economic growth, nor high enough to hinder it. That level is believed to be somewhere between 3.5% and 4.5%. In recent months, the Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates in quarter-point increments, most recently to 3.25% (see chart above).
Though economic growth has remained strong (especially compared with sluggish Europe), there are ample worries to fuel the case for restraint. Oil, the fuel of the world’s economy, remains expensive. And America’s job market is still surprisingly subdued considering how far the nation is into the current economic expansion. Unemployment stands at 5%, down from a high of 6.3% in June 2003, but much of the early improvement came from workers leaving the labour force, rather than job creation. Labour-force participation remains well below its 2000 peak, and payroll headcounts have only this year returned to where they were at their last peak, in 2001. Companies are resorting to increasingly desperate measures to shake consumers loose from their hard-earned dollars, like the Big Three automakers, which have offered their employee discounts to the entire country to move backlogs of 2005 models off the lots.
Nonetheless, Mr Greenspan seems unlikely to satisfy those hoping for easier money. In a July 11th letter to Representative Jim Saxton, the chairman of Congress’s joint economic committee, the Fed chief said that the economy seemed to be coping with higher oil prices, and that the narrowing spread between short-term and long-term interest rates, which can herald a recession, should not be cause for alarm. He is expected to tell Congress that he will continue to raise rates at a measured pace, which likely means another quarter-point increase in August. Many analysts expect interest rates to hit 4% by the end of the year.
There are worries that even this is not hawkish enough. Mr Greenspan’s letter also indicated that the bank is not acting to rein in the bubble which many fear has developed in America’s housing market. Mr Greenspan has long held that interest rates are not a good tool for bursting asset-price bubbles. This position has brought him grief from critics who blame him for allowing the stock market bubble of the late 1990s to continue to inflate long after he warned of its “irrational exuberance”. There are fears that the economy has simply lurched from depending on increasing stock prices to relying on house price appreciation to fuel growth—and that the longer this goes on, the stiffer the price Americans will pay when the bubble evaporates.
Besides the critics, however, there are some observers who think Mr Greenspan is ably steering America between the Scylla of speculation and the Charybdis of contraction. Interest rates high enough to pop a bubble could be high enough to throw the economy into a tailspin, causing more damage than they avert. Interest rates low enough to stimulate employment may also be low enough to unleash inflation, as the central bankers of the 1970s found to their dismay. So far, America seems to be muddling through. Economic growth is strong, payrolls are recovering (however slowly), and America’s monetary policy seems to be reviving the dollar from its recent lows, which should give another fillip to consumer wallets. Mr Greenspan’s powers may not be quite godlike, but he may yet have a couple miracles up his sleeve.
Similar threads
