bund, t-bond t-note ecc SOLO LONG FOR EVER

Bonjour a tout les bondaroles

ihihih son bastate due paroline vergate a mano dal nonnetto e diffuse ierisera per scatenare l'inferno :devil: a un certo punto sul book del t-Bond c'è stato panico e non si trovava più danaro :D :ghh: spread collassato a 4 figure sul 30y-10y , rumba anche sugli altri e sul 10y-2y in particular
e infine finalmente ieri, a parte i livelli tecnici importanti rotti, c'è stata discesa con OI crescente

1121768861greespan.png
 
U.S. Notes May Drop on Concern Greenspan to Signal Higher Rates

July 19 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. 10-year notes may drop in Europe on speculation Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan will tomorrow signal the economy is growing fast enough to justify further interest-rate increases.

Fed Bank of St. Louis President William Poole said late yesterday it's reasonable for financial markets to expect policy makers will lift rates further, according to Reuters. Reports indicating improved economic growth have pushed 10-year Treasury yields to their highest in two months.

``We expect Greenspan to sound very upbeat,'' said John Wraith, head of interest-rate strategy at Royal Bank of Scotland Plc in London. ``He is supported now more so by the fundamentals, that has put some upward pressure on Treasury yields and we would expect that to continue.''

The 10-year note yield rose 1 basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 4.23 percent, its highest since May 12 at 11:02 a.m. in London. The price of the 4 1/8 percent note due 2015 fell 1/32, or 32 cents per $1,000 face amount, according to Cantor Fitzgerald LP. Bond yields move inversely to prices.

Ten-year Treasury yields may rise or fall by as much as 10 basis points on the day of Greenspan's semi-annual testimony, said Derek Halpenny, a currency strategist at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi in London.

In a letter released by Congress yesterday, Greenspan said the U.S. economy is expanding even amid a rise in energy prices. Oil rose to a record $62.10 a barrel on July 7.

`Coping Pretty Well'

``The increase in oil prices since the end of 2003 probably shaved roughly 0.50 percentage point off of real GDP growth last year, and they look to restrain growth this year by approximately 0.75 percentage point,'' Greenspan said in the letter. ``Aside from these `headwinds,' the U.S. economy seems to be coping pretty well with the run-up in crude oil prices.''

The U.S. economy is forecast to grow 3.5 percent this quarter and 3.4 percent in the final three months of 2005, based on the median estimates of 65 economists surveyed by Bloomberg from June 30 to July 11.

``A sharp flattening of the yield curve is not a foolproof indicator of economic weakness,'' Greenspan wrote. The curve, the narrowest in four years, refers to a chart showing Treasury yields of different maturities.

The yield gap between two- and 10-year notes is 34 basis points, about 5 basis points above its narrowest since 2001, reached on June 30.

The yield curve is a chart consisting of Treasury yields of different maturities. Curve flattening occurs when shorter-dated securities fall, longer-dated notes gain or when both happen at the same time.

The Fed has raised rates in nine quarter-point increments since June 2004 to 3.25 percent. Fed policy makers next meet to decide on interest rates on Aug. 9.

Notes `Look Cheap'

Declines in Treasuries may be tempered as yields close to the highest since May attract investors.

The benchmark 10-year yield has risen more than 40 basis points, or 0.4 percentage point, since falling to a 14-month low of 3.8 percent on June 3. The yield was below 4 percent as recently as July 7.

``Treasuries at these levels look cheap,'' said Akira Takei, a fund manager in Tokyo at Fuji Investment Management Co., which oversees about $9.1 billion in global bonds. ``We definitely plan to increase our positions, especially on the long-end, as yields rise.''

The Treasury Department reported yesterday international investors bought U.S. assets in May at the fastest pace in three months.

Investors bought a net $60 billion in Treasury notes, corporate bonds, stocks and other financial assets, up from a revised $47.8 billion in April, the government said. Purchases of Treasuries rose by a net $27.6 billion.

Nine-Year High

Treasuries may also decline on concern inflation is picking up as the economy grows. An index of prices charged by member companies of the National Association for Business Economics rose to a nine-year high, according to a quarterly survey by the group.

Greenspan, in the letter yesterday, also highlighted inflation.

``Consumer price inflation has moved up along with higher crude oil prices,'' Greenspan wrote. ``This has reduced households' purchasing power and adversely affected spending.''

Consumer prices were unchanged in June after falling 0.1 percent a month earlier, the Labor Department said on July 14. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 0.1 percent last month.

Richard Berner, the chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley, said that inflation will probably accelerate and investors should buy U.S. inflation-linked notes and sell nominal Treasury securities.

``If Greenspan emphasizes medium term inflation risks and that growth is solid, then this should move the market down,'' said Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, a fixed-income strategist in London at JPMorgan Chase & Co., who predicts the yield on the 10-year note will rise to 5 percent by the end of the year.

Treasuries fell on July 14 after the Commerce Department said retail sales gained 1.7 percent in June. A day later, the Fed said industrial production increased 0.9 percent last month, the fastest since February 2004.

Interest-rate futures show traders expect the Fed to increase its target rate for overnight loans between banks by a quarter- percentage point at least two more times.

Yields on December Eurodollar futures were 4.18 percent, up from 3.97 percent a month ago. The futures settle at a three-month lending rate that has averaged 21 basis points more than the Fed's target over the past 10 years.

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ho cercato di interpolare i grafi dei rendimenti su fs ma non ci son riuscito, prova a chiedere a ditro quando si sveglia
 
f4f ha scritto:
gastronomo ha scritto:
buon pomeriggio direi

hai preso il fuso Fleurdumaldiano ? :eek:

Sì, sono sempre più distratto

e anche più solo e finto

e l’inquietudine e gli inchini

fan di me un orango

che si muove con la grazia

di chi non è convinto

che la rumba sia soltanto

un’allegria del tango…
:-o
 

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