Si sostiene che un dato della CPI con forte impatto inflattivo incoraggerebbe la FED a rialzare in modo deciso
U.S. Treasuries lower before consumer price data
By Ana Nicolaci da Costa
LONDON, Aug 17 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries edged lower on
Tuesday, as markets remained cautious ahead of U.S. consumer
price data for July due at 1230 GMT.
Analysts polled by Reuters estimate growth in the U.S.
consumer price index slowed to 0.1 percent compared with 0.3
percent in June, due to lower gasoline prices at the pump.
Stripping out volatile energy and food prices, the index
probably rose by 0.2 percent after 0.1 percent in June.
A strong inflation report could encourage the Federal
Reserve to step up the pace of interest rate hikes.
"I think it is probably going to be a fairly neutral
indicator," said Audrey Childe-Freeman, senior economist at CIBC
World Markets.
"(But) if you get much higher than expected CPI at a time
when oil prices are still moving towards the $50 mark I think
that could be a bit of a market mover."
At 1025 GMT, the two-year notes price was down 1/32, with a
yield of 2.50 percent, up from 2.48 in late New York trade on
Monday <US2YT=RR>.
The 10-year note <US10YT=RR> was down 4/32 in price, taking
the yield to 4.28 percent from 4.26 percent in New York, while
the September T-Note future <TYU4> was down 5/32 at 112-13/32.
"It could all be a red herring and we might see no major
price action in the end, because we saw how the New York Empire
State (manufacturing survey) on Monday was a really weak number
but failed to excite bond prices much," said one London trader.
Industrial production and housing starts data are also in
focus, after last week's producer prices numbers and Monday's
weak New York Fed survey of factory activity supported the idea
that the U.S. economy is still in a soft patch.
The July industrial output numbers, due at 1315 GMT, are
expected to show a rise of 0.5 percent after a 0.3 percent fall
in June. The housing starts data is released at 1230 GMT.
The slip in bond prices comes after a retreat of crude
prices to around $46 a barrel from recent record highs near $47
and after the U.S. stock market's solid performance on Monday.
The recent rally in the bond market has partly been fuelled
by high oil prices, which serve as a bottleneck for economic
growth.
Five-year notes <US5YT=RR> eased 2/32 in price, taking
their yield to 3.46 percent, while the 30-year bond yield
<US30YT=RR> yield was at 5.06 percent.
A survey of American businesses out on Tuesday showed that
terrorism has overtaken weak job growth and the budget deficit
as the bigger risk to the U.S economy, shedding light on the
vulnerability of the market to high oil prices and inflation.
Treasuries were steady against Bunds, with the 10-year yield
spread unchanged at 24 basis points. The 10-year dollar swap
spread stood at 46.5 basis points, unchanged from Monday's
close.
((Reporting by Ana Nicolaci da Costa, Reuters Messaging:
[email protected], +44 207542 6745;
editing by David Christian-Edwards))
--------------MARKET SNAPSHOT AT 1045 GMT ------------------
Futures continuous contract basis
30-year T-Bond 110-19/32 (-05/32)
10-year T-Note 112-13/32 (-04/32)
Change vs Current
Nyk yield
Three-month bills 1.44 (+0.01) 1.470
Six-month bills 1.70 (-0.01) 1.743
Two-year notes 100-15/32 (-01/32) 2.498
Five-year notes 100-05/32 (-02/32) 3.464
10-year notes 99-26/32 (-03/32) 4.273
30-year bonds 104-16/32 (-02/32) 5.065
