Derivati USA: CME-CBOT-NYMEX-ICE Bund, T-Bond,T-Notes&friends (vietato minori anni 14) (3 lettori)
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USA: SCORTE DI MAGAZZINO MAGGIORI DELLE ATTESE
NEW YORK (WSI) -- Nel mese di giugno le scorte di magazzino all'ingrosso negli Stati Uniti hanno registrato un incremento del'1.1%.
Lo ha comunicato il Dipartimento del Commercio.
Il dato e' nettamente superiore al consensus di mercato, che era per un aumento dello 0.6%.
E' stato rivisto al rialzo il dato del mese di maggio, che passa al +1.4% dal +1.2%% della versione precedente.
Quiindi più sscorte = meno consumi, giusto
? ...'azz.....
USA: SCORTE DI MAGAZZINO MAGGIORI DELLE ATTESE
NEW YORK (WSI) -- Nel mese di giugno le scorte di magazzino all'ingrosso negli Stati Uniti hanno registrato un incremento del'1.1%.
Lo ha comunicato il Dipartimento del Commercio.
Il dato e' nettamente superiore al consensus di mercato, che era per un aumento dello 0.6%.
E' stato rivisto al rialzo il dato del mese di maggio, che passa al +1.4% dal +1.2%% della versione precedente.
Quiindi più sscorte = meno consumi, giusto
? ...'azz.....
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gastronomo ha scritto:Avete visto questa?
USA: SCORTE DI MAGAZZINO MAGGIORI DELLE ATTESE
NEW YORK (WSI) -- Nel mese di giugno le scorte di magazzino all'ingrosso negli Stati Uniti hanno registrato un incremento del'1.1%.
Lo ha comunicato il Dipartimento del Commercio.
Il dato e' nettamente superiore al consensus di mercato, che era per un aumento dello 0.6%.
E' stato rivisto al rialzo il dato del mese di maggio, che passa al +1.4% dal +1.2%% della versione precedente.
Quiindi più sscorte = meno consumi, giusto
giusto
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... ciao a domani io stacco.
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Ciao Andrea, buona serata
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Ciao Andrea, buona serata
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Reuters
What the Fed has to consider at Tuesday's meeting
Monday August 9, 11:35 am ET
By Victoria Thieberger
NEW YORK, Aug 9 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve will likely push ahead with an increase in borrowing costs when it meets to set interest rates on Tuesday, despite signs of weakness in the economy, most analysts believe.
All 20 economists surveyed by Reuters on Friday after a disappointing July employment report predicted a quarter-point rise in official rates to 1.50 percent from 1.25 percent, although the decision to raise rates will be more difficult than it first seemed.
It would be the second tightening in a cycle that only got started in June, before a wave of data that dampened the outlook for growth. Last month, Fed officials said the soft patch should pass.
If it doesn't, economists say the Fed's planned tightening path for the rest of the year could be in doubt.
Fed policymakers are due to release a statement at the end of their meeting around 2:15 p.m. on Tuesday, announcing any change in policy.
The following are a few of the main factors the Federal Open Market Committee will be considering.
WHAT HAPPENED TO JOBS?
* Never losing its capacity to surprise, the payrolls report showed a sharp deceleration in hiring in July, for the second straight month. Only 32,000 jobs were created across the giant U.S. economy, raising worries the summer doldrums could persist. Most economists are still hopeful the economy will regain some momentum.
* Consumer spending slowed sharply in the June quarter and dragged down overall economic growth to a moderate 3.0 percent. Fed officials played down the weakness for June as temporary.
* Auto sales for July posted a solid rebound to an annual rate of 17.3 million cars from anemic levels around 15 million in June, helped by fresh dealer incentives. The jump helped allay worries about the June soft spot in spending.
* A key factory index from the Institute for Supply Management showed manufacturing activity rose in July from already high levels, while prices paid fell to a six-month low.
* The persistence of high energy prices, currently near a record $44 a barrel, casts a shadow over the economic outlook. Policymakers had thought the prior increase in oil and its dampening effect on spending would be transitory, but the latest run-up suggests it will remain a negative.
* Annual core inflation, excluding food and energy, is up around 1.5 percent by the Fed's preferred measure, and there was some moderation in June. But officials will be watching for any fresh upticks.
TIGHTER, BUT HOW FAST?
In his semi-annual testimony to Congress on July 20, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said the soft patch in the June data should prove "short-lived."
He also stressed the choice in monetary policy was between measured and a more aggressive pace of tightening. But futures markets have backed away from the aggressive view after the July payrolls report.
* Futures markets are now pricing in just two more rate hikes this year and a 50-50 chance of a third move, in the four remaining policy meetings of 2004. The market had thought the Fed would raise rates at each one, taking the funds rate to 2.25 percent by Christmas.
* The yield on the 10-year Treasury note has dived to 4.23 percent from highs around 4.60 percent last month, giving fresh stimulus to the economy even while the Fed was tightening.
* Stocks have been plagued by doubts about the economy, with the S&P 500 down 6.0 percent since the Fed last met.
What the Fed has to consider at Tuesday's meeting
Monday August 9, 11:35 am ET
By Victoria Thieberger
NEW YORK, Aug 9 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve will likely push ahead with an increase in borrowing costs when it meets to set interest rates on Tuesday, despite signs of weakness in the economy, most analysts believe.
All 20 economists surveyed by Reuters on Friday after a disappointing July employment report predicted a quarter-point rise in official rates to 1.50 percent from 1.25 percent, although the decision to raise rates will be more difficult than it first seemed.
It would be the second tightening in a cycle that only got started in June, before a wave of data that dampened the outlook for growth. Last month, Fed officials said the soft patch should pass.
If it doesn't, economists say the Fed's planned tightening path for the rest of the year could be in doubt.
Fed policymakers are due to release a statement at the end of their meeting around 2:15 p.m. on Tuesday, announcing any change in policy.
The following are a few of the main factors the Federal Open Market Committee will be considering.
WHAT HAPPENED TO JOBS?
* Never losing its capacity to surprise, the payrolls report showed a sharp deceleration in hiring in July, for the second straight month. Only 32,000 jobs were created across the giant U.S. economy, raising worries the summer doldrums could persist. Most economists are still hopeful the economy will regain some momentum.
* Consumer spending slowed sharply in the June quarter and dragged down overall economic growth to a moderate 3.0 percent. Fed officials played down the weakness for June as temporary.
* Auto sales for July posted a solid rebound to an annual rate of 17.3 million cars from anemic levels around 15 million in June, helped by fresh dealer incentives. The jump helped allay worries about the June soft spot in spending.
* A key factory index from the Institute for Supply Management showed manufacturing activity rose in July from already high levels, while prices paid fell to a six-month low.
* The persistence of high energy prices, currently near a record $44 a barrel, casts a shadow over the economic outlook. Policymakers had thought the prior increase in oil and its dampening effect on spending would be transitory, but the latest run-up suggests it will remain a negative.
* Annual core inflation, excluding food and energy, is up around 1.5 percent by the Fed's preferred measure, and there was some moderation in June. But officials will be watching for any fresh upticks.
TIGHTER, BUT HOW FAST?
In his semi-annual testimony to Congress on July 20, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said the soft patch in the June data should prove "short-lived."
He also stressed the choice in monetary policy was between measured and a more aggressive pace of tightening. But futures markets have backed away from the aggressive view after the July payrolls report.
* Futures markets are now pricing in just two more rate hikes this year and a 50-50 chance of a third move, in the four remaining policy meetings of 2004. The market had thought the Fed would raise rates at each one, taking the funds rate to 2.25 percent by Christmas.
* The yield on the 10-year Treasury note has dived to 4.23 percent from highs around 4.60 percent last month, giving fresh stimulus to the economy even while the Fed was tightening.
* Stocks have been plagued by doubts about the economy, with the S&P 500 down 6.0 percent since the Fed last met.
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Reuters
US Treasuries slip, auction draws modest demand
Monday August 9, 1:19 pm ET
NEW YORK, Aug 9 (Reuters) - Treasuries prices eased on Monday after an auction of new U.S. government debt attracted only tepid demand, perhaps boding ill for the rest of this week's $51 billion refunding.
The sale of $22 billion in new three-year Treasury notes went at a high yield of 2.842 percent and drew bids for 2.02 times the amount on offer, just below May's 2.08 level.
Indirect bidders, including customers of primary dealers and foreign central banks, picked up $7.93 billion, or 36 percent, of the issue. That was below May's 45 percent share by indirect bidders and a disappointment to traders. Primary dealers took $13.8 billion of the sale.
The current three-year note (US3YT=RR) was 2/32 lower in price, taking yields to 2.75 percent from 2.72 percent late on Friday. In when-issued trading, the new three-year paper had been yielding 2.85 percent just before the sale.
US Treasuries slip, auction draws modest demand
Monday August 9, 1:19 pm ET
NEW YORK, Aug 9 (Reuters) - Treasuries prices eased on Monday after an auction of new U.S. government debt attracted only tepid demand, perhaps boding ill for the rest of this week's $51 billion refunding.
The sale of $22 billion in new three-year Treasury notes went at a high yield of 2.842 percent and drew bids for 2.02 times the amount on offer, just below May's 2.08 level.
Indirect bidders, including customers of primary dealers and foreign central banks, picked up $7.93 billion, or 36 percent, of the issue. That was below May's 45 percent share by indirect bidders and a disappointment to traders. Primary dealers took $13.8 billion of the sale.
The current three-year note (US3YT=RR) was 2/32 lower in price, taking yields to 2.75 percent from 2.72 percent late on Friday. In when-issued trading, the new three-year paper had been yielding 2.85 percent just before the sale.
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Reuters
U.S. Treasuries slip on tepid auction, Fed worries
Monday August 9, 3:46 pm ET
By Pedro Nicolaci da Costa
(Updates prices, changes byline)
NEW YORK, Aug 9 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury prices slipped on Monday as investors took profits on last week's rally and a sale of new three-year notes drew only modest demand.
High on the market's list of priorities was the Federal Reserve's policy meeting on Tuesday, with traders reluctant to make any major moves before hearing what the central bank had to say about a recent deterioration in economic data.
While most still expect the Fed to raise interest rates by a quarter percentage point, a surprisingly weak July jobs report last week spurred speculation as to the future of the monetary tightening cycle.
"Everybody still thinks they're going to go (Tuesday), it would be a massive shock if they decided not to," said Gregg Cohen, a trader at CIBC World Markets.
"It will be interesting to see if their statement addresses the changing economic environment, which Greenspan tried to gloss over a couple of weeks ago. That'll be a little harder for him to do now," Cohen added.
In a milestone event for government debt, non-farm payrolls registered a meager increase of 32,000 in July, casting doubt over the prevailing view that a second-quarter slowdown in consumption and job growth was a passing phenomenon.
That prompted a massive retreat in yields -- over 20 basis points in the benchmark 10-year note -- to reflect the possibility that the central bank might slow the pace of interest rate hikes in the face of economic uncertainty.
On Monday afternoon, the benchmark 10-year note (US10YT=RR) lost 7/32, but that comes after a 1-15/32 jump on Friday in the wake of a poor July payrolls report. Likewise, its yield was at 4.25 percent, up from 4.22 percent late Friday, but still much lower than 4.41 percent on Thursday.
Tepid demand for $22 billion in new three-year notes left the market uncertain about the reception for the rest of this week's $51 billion refunding.
The current three-year note (US3YT=RR) was 3/32 lower in price, taking yields to 2.75 percent from 2.72 percent late on Friday. In when-issued trading, the new three-year paper had been yielding 2.85 percent just before the auction.
The new notes went at a high yield of 2.842 percent and drew bids for 2.02 times the amount on offer, just below May's 2.08 level.
Indirect bidders, including customers of primary dealers and foreign central banks, picked up just $7.93 billion, or 36 percent, of the issue. That was some way below May's 45 percent and a disappointment to traders.
Interest rate futures (0#FF now show investors betting that rates will be at 2 percent or less by year-end and that the pace of tightening will slow further in 2005.
Two-year yields (US2YT=RR) rose to 2.44 percent from 2.39 percent late Friday. On Friday, they had fallen 23 basis points from the previous day's levels in the biggest one-day fall in almost a year, as traders began to mull the possibility of a less aggressive Fed.
Analysts at Merrill Lynch argue that the the entire Fed tightening cycle will peak at 2.5 percent next year.
"A cyclical downturn limits the degree of the Fed's interest rate 'renormalization' process," the analysts said in a research report.
They also looked for the yield curve to flatten. "We expect the 10-year yield, after an intermediate-term rise in yields, to retest the 4 percent level by late 2005," said Merrill's.
Financial News
Enter symbol(s) BasicPerformanceReal-time MktDetailedChartResearchOptionsOrder Book Symbol Lookup
Reuters
U.S. Treasuries slip on tepid auction, Fed worries
Monday August 9, 3:46 pm ET
By Pedro Nicolaci da Costa
(Updates prices, changes byline)
NEW YORK, Aug 9 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury prices slipped on Monday as investors took profits on last week's rally and a sale of new three-year notes drew only modest demand.
High on the market's list of priorities was the Federal Reserve's policy meeting on Tuesday, with traders reluctant to make any major moves before hearing what the central bank had to say about a recent deterioration in economic data.
While most still expect the Fed to raise interest rates by a quarter percentage point, a surprisingly weak July jobs report last week spurred speculation as to the future of the monetary tightening cycle.
"Everybody still thinks they're going to go (Tuesday), it would be a massive shock if they decided not to," said Gregg Cohen, a trader at CIBC World Markets.
"It will be interesting to see if their statement addresses the changing economic environment, which Greenspan tried to gloss over a couple of weeks ago. That'll be a little harder for him to do now," Cohen added.
In a milestone event for government debt, non-farm payrolls registered a meager increase of 32,000 in July, casting doubt over the prevailing view that a second-quarter slowdown in consumption and job growth was a passing phenomenon.
That prompted a massive retreat in yields -- over 20 basis points in the benchmark 10-year note -- to reflect the possibility that the central bank might slow the pace of interest rate hikes in the face of economic uncertainty.
On Monday afternoon, the benchmark 10-year note (US10YT=RR) lost 7/32, but that comes after a 1-15/32 jump on Friday in the wake of a poor July payrolls report. Likewise, its yield was at 4.25 percent, up from 4.22 percent late Friday, but still much lower than 4.41 percent on Thursday.
Tepid demand for $22 billion in new three-year notes left the market uncertain about the reception for the rest of this week's $51 billion refunding.
The current three-year note (US3YT=RR) was 3/32 lower in price, taking yields to 2.75 percent from 2.72 percent late on Friday. In when-issued trading, the new three-year paper had been yielding 2.85 percent just before the auction.
The new notes went at a high yield of 2.842 percent and drew bids for 2.02 times the amount on offer, just below May's 2.08 level.
Indirect bidders, including customers of primary dealers and foreign central banks, picked up just $7.93 billion, or 36 percent, of the issue. That was some way below May's 45 percent and a disappointment to traders.
Interest rate futures (0#FF
now show investors betting that rates will be at 2 percent or less by year-end and that the pace of tightening will slow further in 2005.Two-year yields (US2YT=RR) rose to 2.44 percent from 2.39 percent late Friday. On Friday, they had fallen 23 basis points from the previous day's levels in the biggest one-day fall in almost a year, as traders began to mull the possibility of a less aggressive Fed.
Analysts at Merrill Lynch argue that the the entire Fed tightening cycle will peak at 2.5 percent next year.
"A cyclical downturn limits the degree of the Fed's interest rate 'renormalization' process," the analysts said in a research report.
They also looked for the yield curve to flatten. "We expect the 10-year yield, after an intermediate-term rise in yields, to retest the 4 percent level by late 2005," said Merrill's.