Derivati USA: CME-CBOT-NYMEX-ICE BUND, TBOND and the middle of the guado (VM 69)
- Creatore Discussione masgui
- Data di Inizio
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
I prox giorni sarò assente per cui oggi non seguo molto comunque questa reazione potrebbe portare a due tre sedute di recupero che farebbe recuperare buona parte della candela dell'altro giorno per poi fare un nuvo affondo con test delll'area 982/983.
Da li nuovo recupero anche leggermente superiore al precedetene poi affondo. Questo se rispetta l'andamento della correzione giugno luglio. Presente i maggiori volumi di ieri che dovrebbero rendere questa correzione un po piu severa della precedente per cui lo scenario si potrebbe riprodurre ma un po piu debole.
Da li nuovo recupero anche leggermente superiore al precedetene poi affondo. Questo se rispetta l'andamento della correzione giugno luglio. Presente i maggiori volumi di ieri che dovrebbero rendere questa correzione un po piu severa della precedente per cui lo scenario si potrebbe riprodurre ma un po piu debole.
f4f
翠鸟科
Fernando'S
Forumer storico
ecco i conti :
0,618........ 1013,11
0,764...........1009,48
1................1003,61
1,382...........994,11
1,618 ..........988,25
1,764.......... 984,62
2 ................978,75
2,618 ...........963,3
4,236...........923,16
guardando la forma dell'onda A cosa si nota ??
(aiutino..onda A è in 3 oppure in 5 ? )
cosa succede in un caso o nell'altro ?
...vediamo chi è che ha studiato e chi si è fatto le seghe
( tanto me l'immagino già
)Allegati
masgui
Forumer storico
questo per far capire che spesso bastano poche parole per illustrare i concetti:
Fed: Recession ending, recovery unpredictable
Fed: Recession ending, recovery unpredictable
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
DIFFERENT WORLD
By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
9/2/2009 1:42:04 PM Eastern Time
NEW YORK, NY The trading session thus far has been somewhat lackluster with stocks meandering in and out of positive territory. By early afternoon, only marginal gains and losses were being recorded by the indexes. This intraday performance suggests that there has not been that catalyst to drive the market in either direction, although there has been a marked increase in volatility in the past few weeks. This in is stark contrast with what was experienced in September of last year where the dramatic moves in the indexes precipitated bouts of mental whiplash. It seems that investors are contemplating what Friday's job report will bring.
September has historically been the month that many of the market's various hysterias have occurred. At this juncture, the jury is still out as to whether this September will bring forth much of the same, being as we are only in the second trading day of the month. This time last year was the beginning of the financial crisis, when Lehman Brothers caused the financial system to nearly collapse and investors and traders were grappling with how to respond to these unforeseen situations. As such, it was not uncommon to experience triple digit intraday swings in the indexes, which left many gasping for air by the session's close.
Fast forward to present day and this September presents a much different scenario. The world has evolved into a much different place. The Federal Reserve has been imbued with expansive new powers to regulate the financial system and related institutions are far less vulnerable than they were a year ago. In fact, after receiving billions of dollars of taxpayer money in the form of a bailout, many of the banking institutions have paid, or are seeking to pay back their controversial loans...with interest.
As it pertains to the broader economy, corporations have kept their inventory levels at a low level and profitability is returning. Current projections point to GDP growth in the third quarter. This compares to the first half of the year where the economy contracted while in the throes of the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. It does seem that although it is still dark on the economic landscape, dawn does appear to be breaking.
Among the better performers in the today's session are the energy-related and material stocks. These issues are tracking a slight uptick in the prices of energy and basic materials, which are benefiting from the fact that the value of the U.S. dollar is fluctuating versus a basket of other currencies.
History has demonstrated that energy issues tend to do well four to six months after a recession has ended. Given that there is an emerging consensus that the recession has ended, any apparent recovery in crude oil prices is just at the beginning stages. Gold prices are moving up to a near two-month high to about $971.60 per ounce.
Economic Data
Challenger, Gray & Christmas
While the ADP report cast a little doom and gloom on the employment picture this morning, data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas was slightly more encouraging. The company announced August job cuts of 76,456, down from July 2009 and from August 2008. Trends on the report will be more telling later this year as employers make job adjustments based on peak holiday demand. However, the fact is that employers have cut much of the fat from the employee ranks, leaving skilled workers that are needed to support growth initiatives once the economy comes back to a stronger degree.
Non-Farm Productivity
Productivity data released this morning was a good story from an inflationary perspective. 2Q09 productivity was revised to an increase of 6.6% from the 6.4% previously reported. Still, hours worked fell noticeably and with wage growth stagnant, it's hard to imagine a scenario where consumers back in force near-term.
Factory Orders
Factory orders placed with U.S. companies increased for the fourth straight month, but came in short of expectations as non-durable goods orders fell 1.9%. In total, factory orders increased 1.3% during the month of July (below the 2.2% expected by the Street). The gain was driven by orders for transportation equipment, which rose 18.5%, the largest gain since September 2006. Excluding transportation goods, factory orders fell 0.7%. Excluding defense goods, orders rose 0.9%. Orders for machinery fell 6.3%. Orders for electronics rose 5.3%. Orders for non-aircraft, non-defense capital goods fell 0.3% in July, and were down 23.0% in the past year.
In the coming months, factory orders are expected to remain relatively strong as the cash for clunkers program caused dealerships across the country to reorder vehicles. Also on the horizon for factory orders is the maiden flight for Boeing's (BA) 787, which has been delayed since May of 2008.
The Euro-zone sees Positive Signs
Carlos Guillen, Research Analyst
Looking at the macroeconomic situation in Europe, we can observe that the worst recession in more than 60-years is becoming "less bad." During the second quarter, European consumer spending rose for the first time in more than a year and exports fell at a slower pace; both of these factors significantly put the brakes on a falling economy.
According to the European Union's statistics office in Luxembourg, European households increased their spending by 0.2% in the second quarter after declining 0.5% in the first quarter. Also encouraging was that exports fell only 1.1% after an 8.8% drop in the March quarter. This resulted in a gross domestic product decline of 0.1%, in line with estimates in August.
A number of European companies are providing evidence that government efforts to encourage spending and fight the economic slump are gaining traction, including companies like France's Vivendi SA and Germany's Henkel AG. This has not gone unnoticed, as confidence in the economic outlook increased for a fifth consecutive month in August. However, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet has warned that rising unemployment may slow the recovery. Overall, European consumer spending is expected to remain subdued, contributing very little to GDP growth; the main drivers of GDP growth will be exports and an increase in global demand. In the second quarter, GDP dropped 4.7% year over year after sinking 4.9% in the first quarter. GDP in the Euro-zone has so far declined for five straight quarters, but now many believe the worst is over, at least in the short-term. Economists are forecasting the Euro-zone economy to shrink by 0.3% in 2010 after a 4.8% contraction this year.
By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
9/2/2009 1:42:04 PM Eastern Time
NEW YORK, NY The trading session thus far has been somewhat lackluster with stocks meandering in and out of positive territory. By early afternoon, only marginal gains and losses were being recorded by the indexes. This intraday performance suggests that there has not been that catalyst to drive the market in either direction, although there has been a marked increase in volatility in the past few weeks. This in is stark contrast with what was experienced in September of last year where the dramatic moves in the indexes precipitated bouts of mental whiplash. It seems that investors are contemplating what Friday's job report will bring.
September has historically been the month that many of the market's various hysterias have occurred. At this juncture, the jury is still out as to whether this September will bring forth much of the same, being as we are only in the second trading day of the month. This time last year was the beginning of the financial crisis, when Lehman Brothers caused the financial system to nearly collapse and investors and traders were grappling with how to respond to these unforeseen situations. As such, it was not uncommon to experience triple digit intraday swings in the indexes, which left many gasping for air by the session's close.
Fast forward to present day and this September presents a much different scenario. The world has evolved into a much different place. The Federal Reserve has been imbued with expansive new powers to regulate the financial system and related institutions are far less vulnerable than they were a year ago. In fact, after receiving billions of dollars of taxpayer money in the form of a bailout, many of the banking institutions have paid, or are seeking to pay back their controversial loans...with interest.
As it pertains to the broader economy, corporations have kept their inventory levels at a low level and profitability is returning. Current projections point to GDP growth in the third quarter. This compares to the first half of the year where the economy contracted while in the throes of the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. It does seem that although it is still dark on the economic landscape, dawn does appear to be breaking.
Among the better performers in the today's session are the energy-related and material stocks. These issues are tracking a slight uptick in the prices of energy and basic materials, which are benefiting from the fact that the value of the U.S. dollar is fluctuating versus a basket of other currencies.
History has demonstrated that energy issues tend to do well four to six months after a recession has ended. Given that there is an emerging consensus that the recession has ended, any apparent recovery in crude oil prices is just at the beginning stages. Gold prices are moving up to a near two-month high to about $971.60 per ounce.
Economic Data
Challenger, Gray & Christmas
While the ADP report cast a little doom and gloom on the employment picture this morning, data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas was slightly more encouraging. The company announced August job cuts of 76,456, down from July 2009 and from August 2008. Trends on the report will be more telling later this year as employers make job adjustments based on peak holiday demand. However, the fact is that employers have cut much of the fat from the employee ranks, leaving skilled workers that are needed to support growth initiatives once the economy comes back to a stronger degree.
Productivity data released this morning was a good story from an inflationary perspective. 2Q09 productivity was revised to an increase of 6.6% from the 6.4% previously reported. Still, hours worked fell noticeably and with wage growth stagnant, it's hard to imagine a scenario where consumers back in force near-term.
Factory orders placed with U.S. companies increased for the fourth straight month, but came in short of expectations as non-durable goods orders fell 1.9%. In total, factory orders increased 1.3% during the month of July (below the 2.2% expected by the Street). The gain was driven by orders for transportation equipment, which rose 18.5%, the largest gain since September 2006. Excluding transportation goods, factory orders fell 0.7%. Excluding defense goods, orders rose 0.9%. Orders for machinery fell 6.3%. Orders for electronics rose 5.3%. Orders for non-aircraft, non-defense capital goods fell 0.3% in July, and were down 23.0% in the past year.
In the coming months, factory orders are expected to remain relatively strong as the cash for clunkers program caused dealerships across the country to reorder vehicles. Also on the horizon for factory orders is the maiden flight for Boeing's (BA) 787, which has been delayed since May of 2008.
Carlos Guillen, Research Analyst
Looking at the macroeconomic situation in Europe, we can observe that the worst recession in more than 60-years is becoming "less bad." During the second quarter, European consumer spending rose for the first time in more than a year and exports fell at a slower pace; both of these factors significantly put the brakes on a falling economy.
According to the European Union's statistics office in Luxembourg, European households increased their spending by 0.2% in the second quarter after declining 0.5% in the first quarter. Also encouraging was that exports fell only 1.1% after an 8.8% drop in the March quarter. This resulted in a gross domestic product decline of 0.1%, in line with estimates in August.
A number of European companies are providing evidence that government efforts to encourage spending and fight the economic slump are gaining traction, including companies like France's Vivendi SA and Germany's Henkel AG. This has not gone unnoticed, as confidence in the economic outlook increased for a fifth consecutive month in August. However, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet has warned that rising unemployment may slow the recovery. Overall, European consumer spending is expected to remain subdued, contributing very little to GDP growth; the main drivers of GDP growth will be exports and an increase in global demand. In the second quarter, GDP dropped 4.7% year over year after sinking 4.9% in the first quarter. GDP in the Euro-zone has so far declined for five straight quarters, but now many believe the worst is over, at least in the short-term. Economists are forecasting the Euro-zone economy to shrink by 0.3% in 2010 after a 4.8% contraction this year.
Madiba
Forumer storico
eneacim
Nuovo forumer
Similar threads
