feliceanima
Forumer attivo
infallibile azz Ferni t ivuoi costruire la super pensione il tuo acquisto immobiliare posticipato a quanto vedo
Derivati USA: CME-CBOT-NYMEX-ICE BUND, TBOND and the middle of the guado (VM 69) (2 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione masgui
- Data di Inizio
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
dico idee per tirar fuori un algoritmo
roba analitica
dopo "il Prudente" ( che oramai è maggiorenne ) ..vorrei costruire "L' Infallibile "
Io ho gli algoritmi nella testa però qualche volta mi finiscono anche nel....
per "prenderti" però sul serio secondo me bisognerebbe calcolare che il VIX ha due tipi di andamento un laterale ribassista nelle fasi bullish ed uno rialzista nelle fasi orso. Come noti le fasi lateral ribassista hanno solitamente un piano inclinato oppure un box che li contiene e su quelli potresti costruire un segnale. Rotture al rialzo dei massimi dell'ultimo anno dovrebbero essere considerati spunti ribassisti.
Fernando'S
Forumer storico
... the work is in progress
Madiba
Forumer storico
Buon pomeriggio
Oct. 13 (Bloomberg) -- CIT Group Inc., the 101-year-old lender that may file for bankruptcy protection, said Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Peek plans to resign.
Peek, 62, joins Bank of America Corp. chief Kenneth Lewis and Morgan Stanley head John Mack, who have said they will step down in the past month. CIT’s board formed a search committee to find a new CEO, the New York-based company said in a statement today.
Oct. 13 (Bloomberg) -- CIT Group Inc., the 101-year-old lender that may file for bankruptcy protection, said Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Peek plans to resign.
Peek, 62, joins Bank of America Corp. chief Kenneth Lewis and Morgan Stanley head John Mack, who have said they will step down in the past month. CIT’s board formed a search committee to find a new CEO, the New York-based company said in a statement today.
quicksilver
Forumer storico
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The Weekly Report For October 12th - October 16th, 2009[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Commentary:[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] The markets rebounded this week, which was a bit of a surprise, having ended last week on a sour note. It was a little surprising because despite the strength of the recent rally, last week's pullback was steep and on increasing volume. The markets have virtually erased all of last week's declines and are once again at a critical juncture. With resistance firmly established above, the markets may have a tough time resuming the uptrend next week without a major catalyst. Interestingly enough, earnings season should be in full swing, with several high-profile companies on the docket. Some of the companies on tap for the coming week include Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), Intel Corp. (Nasdaq:INTC), JP Morgan Chase and Company (NYSE:JPM), Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE:GS), Google, Inc. (Nasdaq:GOOG) and International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE:IBM). How these companies report will have a huge impact on the near-term market direction. Throw in the fact that next week is options expiration and the markets could be in for a spike in volatility.
In looking at the chart for the S&P 500, as represented by the S&P 500 SPDRS (NYSE:SPY) ETF, it's interesting to note that despite the strength this week, the markets were unable to clear the September highs. This level is a key area to watch moving forward, as is the low established last week. The markets remain in a trading range until either of these levels is taken out.
[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Source: StockCharts.com[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
The Diamonds Trust Series 1 (NYSE:DIA) ETF, which tracks the Dow Jones Industrial Average, is showing one very important difference. DIA was actually able to close at new recovery highs, although it remains below the high set in September. While closing levels typically hold more weight than highs or lows, DIA accomplished this on really light volume and this ETF is less a representation of the general markets, as it only tracks 30 companies. As such, while this move may be a sign of strength, it should be taken in the appropriate context.
[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Source: StockCharts.com[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
The iShares Russell 2000 Index (NYSE:IWM) ETF, on the other hand, tracks 2,000 companies. IWM stopped well short of its September highs on this week's rally and volume was much lighter than last week. Much like the other ETFs, IWM is showing a clear divergence on the MACD indicator. This divergence is not a trading signal, but provides a clear warning that the current rally is on waning momentum. The $62 level is a critical area for this ETF and could rebuff a rally attempt.
[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Source: StockCharts.com[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
The Powershares QQQ ETF (Nasdaq:QQQQ) ended the week much like SPY did, closing very close to the September highs. With several high-profile tech names reporting earnings next week, the next move will surely depend on the reaction to the reports. The $43 area remains key overhead resistance, with the $41 area appearing to have held as support. This zone clearly defines the current trading range, and a move to either direction could provide a good trading opportunity.
[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Source: StockCharts.com[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
Bottom Line
As mentioned last week, the sharp decline was not necessarily the beginning of a deep correction, but more likely a transition to a period of range-bound price movement. With last week's lows firmly behind us, it appears that the markets have established an area of near-term support and near-term resistance. It's quite possible that we will remain in this range in the near future. As traders, we must remain patient and let the markets show us which way they intend to move next.
[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Have a Great Day!
By Joey Fundora
Joey Fundora is an independent trader located in South Florida. Joey focuses on using technical analysis techniques to uncover supply and demand imbalances in equities. To see more of his work, visit his site on Stock Chart Analysis.[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Commentary:[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] The markets rebounded this week, which was a bit of a surprise, having ended last week on a sour note. It was a little surprising because despite the strength of the recent rally, last week's pullback was steep and on increasing volume. The markets have virtually erased all of last week's declines and are once again at a critical juncture. With resistance firmly established above, the markets may have a tough time resuming the uptrend next week without a major catalyst. Interestingly enough, earnings season should be in full swing, with several high-profile companies on the docket. Some of the companies on tap for the coming week include Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), Intel Corp. (Nasdaq:INTC), JP Morgan Chase and Company (NYSE:JPM), Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE:GS), Google, Inc. (Nasdaq:GOOG) and International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE:IBM). How these companies report will have a huge impact on the near-term market direction. Throw in the fact that next week is options expiration and the markets could be in for a spike in volatility.
In looking at the chart for the S&P 500, as represented by the S&P 500 SPDRS (NYSE:SPY) ETF, it's interesting to note that despite the strength this week, the markets were unable to clear the September highs. This level is a key area to watch moving forward, as is the low established last week. The markets remain in a trading range until either of these levels is taken out.
[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
The Diamonds Trust Series 1 (NYSE:DIA) ETF, which tracks the Dow Jones Industrial Average, is showing one very important difference. DIA was actually able to close at new recovery highs, although it remains below the high set in September. While closing levels typically hold more weight than highs or lows, DIA accomplished this on really light volume and this ETF is less a representation of the general markets, as it only tracks 30 companies. As such, while this move may be a sign of strength, it should be taken in the appropriate context.
[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
The iShares Russell 2000 Index (NYSE:IWM) ETF, on the other hand, tracks 2,000 companies. IWM stopped well short of its September highs on this week's rally and volume was much lighter than last week. Much like the other ETFs, IWM is showing a clear divergence on the MACD indicator. This divergence is not a trading signal, but provides a clear warning that the current rally is on waning momentum. The $62 level is a critical area for this ETF and could rebuff a rally attempt.
[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
The Powershares QQQ ETF (Nasdaq:QQQQ) ended the week much like SPY did, closing very close to the September highs. With several high-profile tech names reporting earnings next week, the next move will surely depend on the reaction to the reports. The $43 area remains key overhead resistance, with the $41 area appearing to have held as support. This zone clearly defines the current trading range, and a move to either direction could provide a good trading opportunity.
[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
Bottom Line
As mentioned last week, the sharp decline was not necessarily the beginning of a deep correction, but more likely a transition to a period of range-bound price movement. With last week's lows firmly behind us, it appears that the markets have established an area of near-term support and near-term resistance. It's quite possible that we will remain in this range in the near future. As traders, we must remain patient and let the markets show us which way they intend to move next.
[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Have a Great Day!
By Joey Fundora
Joey Fundora is an independent trader located in South Florida. Joey focuses on using technical analysis techniques to uncover supply and demand imbalances in equities. To see more of his work, visit his site on Stock Chart Analysis.[/FONT]
Fernando'S
Forumer storico
non c'è pace 
........ aggiornai again
........ aggiornai again
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Moody’s still negative on Spanish banks
Posted by Stacy-Marie Ishmael on Oct 13 16:37.
It’s pretty much the done thing these days to question the fundamentals of the Spanish banking system, but — and it surprises us to say this — Moody’s has been ahead of many (though not the FT) in warning about the pain in Spain.
In May, Lisa Hintz of Moody’s Capital Markets Research Group, a separate unit from the main ratings division — issued the following warning:
As Spain continues to weaken, we believe there is a non-trivial possibility of a systemic shock to the Spanish banking market, most likely from a large failure of a covered bond issuer. Banco Sabadell, which is currently trading at a CDS-implied rating of Ba1 and a gap of -7, is a candidate.
A week later, Moody’s rating unit said it would be reviewing the bank financial strength ratings (BFSRs) of 36 Spanish banks for possible downgrades. The actual downgrades followed in June, with cuts to the senior unsecured debt and deposit ratings of 25 of Spain’s banks, and reductions in the BFSRs of 30.
And Moody’s continues to keep a close eye on the country’s financial institutions, as its latest report — published on Tuesday — makes clear. Emphasis FT Alphaville’s:
The fundamental credit outlook for the Spanish banking system remains negative, reflecting the impact of the ongoing economic recession and severe asset quality deterioration on domestic banks’ risk absorption capacity
“Over the past 12 months, the pressure on Spanish banks has broadened, resulting in: (i) an accelerated deterioration of asset quality; (ii) a further weakening of the existing cushions against losses, such as retained earnings, generic (anti-cyclical) provisions and unrealised capital gains; and (iii) a still challenging wholesale funding market and increased competitive pressure on the retail funding side,” says Maria Cabanyes, Moody’s lead analyst for the Spanish banking system.
On the face of it, Spanish banks have so far demonstrated remarkable resilience to these pressures, but Moody’s remains concerned that many entities appear to be avoiding recognition of the true scale of the asset quality deterioration in their books, which could result in the banking sector remaining weak (and in continuing low standalone ratings) unless this is addressed more decisively.
That latter paragraph struck us as particularly interesting, not least because of the theories, counter-theories and analyses on the small matter of whether Spain’s banks are hiding their losses.
It’s not all bad news, however:
. . . the amount targeted by the government to support the banking sector (close to €100 billion has been made available in a recapitalisation and restructuring fund) should provide sufficient funds to address the capital shortfalls of Spanish banks under Moody’s base scenario, thereby supporting the current long-term ratings.
Except for this bit:
Extrapolating Moody’s estimates of lifetime loan losses for rated banks in Spain to the entire Spanish financial institutions universe results in an approximate figure of EUR108 billion of losses under the rating agency’s base-case scenario, as of the end of 2008. Against this estimated loss number, system-wide (general and specific) loan loss provisions amounted to EUR51 billion at the end of H1 2009, which means that constituted provisions provide a coverage of expected losses of 47%.
And this one:
This in turn means that Spanish banks still need to fund provisions of EUR57 billion on the basis of Moody’s assumptions regarding the performance of key asset classes, earnings and available capital. Extrapolating the net loan loss provision cushions that have been built-up over the past six months (EUR6.3 billion), it would take banks close to five years to fully provision Moody’s estimation of losses. This would severely affect the capacity of many Spanish banks to generate profits in the coming years. Should the Spanish economy continue to deteriorate significantly, the rating agency’s stressed scenario estimates substantially higher losses, of up to EUR225 billion.
And for completeness, some edifying charts:
Posted by Stacy-Marie Ishmael on Oct 13 16:37.
It’s pretty much the done thing these days to question the fundamentals of the Spanish banking system, but — and it surprises us to say this — Moody’s has been ahead of many (though not the FT) in warning about the pain in Spain.
In May, Lisa Hintz of Moody’s Capital Markets Research Group, a separate unit from the main ratings division — issued the following warning:
As Spain continues to weaken, we believe there is a non-trivial possibility of a systemic shock to the Spanish banking market, most likely from a large failure of a covered bond issuer. Banco Sabadell, which is currently trading at a CDS-implied rating of Ba1 and a gap of -7, is a candidate.
A week later, Moody’s rating unit said it would be reviewing the bank financial strength ratings (BFSRs) of 36 Spanish banks for possible downgrades. The actual downgrades followed in June, with cuts to the senior unsecured debt and deposit ratings of 25 of Spain’s banks, and reductions in the BFSRs of 30.
And Moody’s continues to keep a close eye on the country’s financial institutions, as its latest report — published on Tuesday — makes clear. Emphasis FT Alphaville’s:
The fundamental credit outlook for the Spanish banking system remains negative, reflecting the impact of the ongoing economic recession and severe asset quality deterioration on domestic banks’ risk absorption capacity
“Over the past 12 months, the pressure on Spanish banks has broadened, resulting in: (i) an accelerated deterioration of asset quality; (ii) a further weakening of the existing cushions against losses, such as retained earnings, generic (anti-cyclical) provisions and unrealised capital gains; and (iii) a still challenging wholesale funding market and increased competitive pressure on the retail funding side,” says Maria Cabanyes, Moody’s lead analyst for the Spanish banking system.
On the face of it, Spanish banks have so far demonstrated remarkable resilience to these pressures, but Moody’s remains concerned that many entities appear to be avoiding recognition of the true scale of the asset quality deterioration in their books, which could result in the banking sector remaining weak (and in continuing low standalone ratings) unless this is addressed more decisively.
That latter paragraph struck us as particularly interesting, not least because of the theories, counter-theories and analyses on the small matter of whether Spain’s banks are hiding their losses.
It’s not all bad news, however:
. . . the amount targeted by the government to support the banking sector (close to €100 billion has been made available in a recapitalisation and restructuring fund) should provide sufficient funds to address the capital shortfalls of Spanish banks under Moody’s base scenario, thereby supporting the current long-term ratings.
Except for this bit:
Extrapolating Moody’s estimates of lifetime loan losses for rated banks in Spain to the entire Spanish financial institutions universe results in an approximate figure of EUR108 billion of losses under the rating agency’s base-case scenario, as of the end of 2008. Against this estimated loss number, system-wide (general and specific) loan loss provisions amounted to EUR51 billion at the end of H1 2009, which means that constituted provisions provide a coverage of expected losses of 47%.
And this one:
This in turn means that Spanish banks still need to fund provisions of EUR57 billion on the basis of Moody’s assumptions regarding the performance of key asset classes, earnings and available capital. Extrapolating the net loan loss provision cushions that have been built-up over the past six months (EUR6.3 billion), it would take banks close to five years to fully provision Moody’s estimation of losses. This would severely affect the capacity of many Spanish banks to generate profits in the coming years. Should the Spanish economy continue to deteriorate significantly, the rating agency’s stressed scenario estimates substantially higher losses, of up to EUR225 billion.
And for completeness, some edifying charts:
Madiba
Forumer storico
quicksilver
Forumer storico
è ottobre, pringturner ha aggiornato
http://www.pringturner.com/newsletters/102009CliLtr.pdf
http://www.pringturner.com/newsletters/102009CliLtr.pdf
