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JPMorgan May Lose $3 Billion on Derivatives Rules, Analyst Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602007&sid=aV8Hy1d1ENAM#
By Elizabeth Hester
Dec. 2 (Bloomberg) -- JPMorgan Chase & Co. may see revenue decline as much as $3 billion if most derivatives trades are moved to exchanges, a Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. analyst said.
That could mean a reduction in earnings per share of as much as 20 cents in a “worst case” situation, analyst John McDonald said today in a research note after meeting with Steven Black, vice chairman of the investment bank. Derivatives accounted for about 8 percent of JPMorgan’s revenue from 2006 to 2008, he said.
JPMorgan, the second-largest U.S. bank, and other dealers face new regulations as Congress considers legislation that may restrict trading in the contracts. The proposals generally would require dealers and large investors to trade the most common derivatives on exchanges or regulated trading platforms
JPMorgan “sees the largest risk from legislation mandating that all derivatives be traded on an exchange as opposed to through the OTC market, limiting the company’s ability to create customized products,” McDonald wrote in his note.
He said the earnings estimates for the New York-based bank represented a “worst case” in which the “most severe regulatory changes take place.” McDonald also didn’t include potential gains in volume or capital relief that may come from having the majority of contracts standardized and cleared on exchanges.
Dealers have been under pressure from the Federal Reserve to loosen their control of how the markets are run. The gross amount of outstanding contracts reached $605 trillion at the end of June, according to the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland. The contracts carried a gross market value of $25.4 trillion, BIS data show.
dicono che JPMorgan May Lose $3 Billion on Derivatives Rules, Analyst Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602007&sid=aV8Hy1d1ENAM#
By Elizabeth Hester
Dec. 2 (Bloomberg) -- JPMorgan Chase & Co. may see revenue decline as much as $3 billion if most derivatives trades are moved to exchanges, a Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. analyst said.
That could mean a reduction in earnings per share of as much as 20 cents in a “worst case” situation, analyst John McDonald said today in a research note after meeting with Steven Black, vice chairman of the investment bank. Derivatives accounted for about 8 percent of JPMorgan’s revenue from 2006 to 2008, he said.
JPMorgan, the second-largest U.S. bank, and other dealers face new regulations as Congress considers legislation that may restrict trading in the contracts. The proposals generally would require dealers and large investors to trade the most common derivatives on exchanges or regulated trading platforms
JPMorgan “sees the largest risk from legislation mandating that all derivatives be traded on an exchange as opposed to through the OTC market, limiting the company’s ability to create customized products,” McDonald wrote in his note.
He said the earnings estimates for the New York-based bank represented a “worst case” in which the “most severe regulatory changes take place.” McDonald also didn’t include potential gains in volume or capital relief that may come from having the majority of contracts standardized and cleared on exchanges.
Dealers have been under pressure from the Federal Reserve to loosen their control of how the markets are run. The gross amount of outstanding contracts reached $605 trillion at the end of June, according to the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland. The contracts carried a gross market value of $25.4 trillion, BIS data show.
