STILL WORRIED ABOUT JOBS
By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
2/3/2010 1:52:10 PM Eastern Time
Investors are feeling the typical pressure just two days from another jobs report. News out this morning did little to add clarity to Friday's non-farm payroll report, and even took some of the edge off momentum enjoyed coming into the session. Similar to last week, the official estimate is for minimal job growth, but the reality is that some very smart people are looking for significant growth. This morning, one of the smartest economists I know said her firm is looking for 100,000 jobs to be created during the month, and I'm told there are several 100,000 plus estimates out there. Ballsy to say the very least, but the fact is that many experts thought December would have seen as many jobs created as were actually lost. There were economic reports out this morning, one gave a dollop of hope and the other let some air out of the balloon. But the most important economic report of the session came from the Institute of Supply Management.
ISM Services
The ISM report on manufacturing is considered by many to be one of the two or three most important monthly reads on the economy, but the ISM-service data doesn't carry the same weight. Today, it's a good thing that's the case because the report was riddled with yellow flags. In addition to missing consensus, the report saw new order backlog tumble month over month. Then there are imports, which plunged to a reading of 47.0 from 52.2. On the other hand, input prices had the largest move higher to 61.2 from 59.6. For many, the biggest letdown among components of the report was employment. Up for the ninth time in ten months, the reading of 44.6 was a slight improvement from 43.6 in the preceding month. This reading has to cross 48.0 to signal expansion rather than contraction.
Petroleum data hasn't helped matters much as the report was mixed, with demand for crude oil and distillates less than expected.
Despite the lack of clear cut direction from data out today the market is exhibiting resolve. Moreover, key names like Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) are providing the kind of leadership investors find comforting. By the way, on the topic of leadership, the flip flop from Transportation Secretary LaHood is confusing and irresponsible. Maybe his words were taken out of context, but it seems clear he suggested that people that own any of the recalled Toyota (TM) cars look to park them. This was a shocking development, and it sent Toyota shares tumbling. While Toyota hasn't handled this well, and there is speculation the problem is deeper than management is admitting, the notion of telling one out of ten drivers in America to park their cars seems drastic. I'm sure there are legal ramifications and practical ramifications.
Although I'm impressed with the resilience of the market I'm not compelled to force the issue. The great news is how many great stocks are already oversold.
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