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Beware the ides of money funds, Libor
Posted by
Joseph Cotterill on May 25 12:17. Libor
laments notwithstanding, this was a big jump on Tuesday:
RTRS-LIBOR THREE-MONTH DOLLAR RATES FIX AT 0.53625 PCT VS 0.50969 PCT ON MONDAY -BBA
11:56 25May10 RTRS-LIBOR THREE-MONTH EURO RATES FIX AT 0.63875 PCT VS 0.63438 PCT ON MONDAY -BBA
11:56 25May10 RTRS-LIBOR THREE-MONTH STERLING RATES FIX AT 0.70813 PCT VS 0.70188 PCT ON MONDAY -BBA
Ouch. Big move in the three-month dollar rate.
But here’s IFR’s Divyang Shah with another reason to expect Libor to go even higher:
…some of the upward pressure on LIBOR may be related to money market funds shortening duration as a result of the changes to 2a-7 money market regulations that come into effect from next month. These rule changes will require money market strategies to 1) hold a minimum of 10% overnight and 30% seven-day liquidity and 2) reduce the weighted average portfolio maturity limit from 90-days to 60-days. We saw early on in the crisis the impact that money market funds had on the post-Lehmans environment when LIBOR/OIS spreads really took off and accelerated following the breaking of the buck by Reserve Primary Fund in Sept-2008.
Ah,
Reserve Primary — for reference’s sake, largely the inspiration for
2a-7 reform.
As providers of term liquidity the impact of money market funds could be significant and thus what we are seeing on LIBOR rates may not be so much a shortage of dollars, counterparty risks or the impact of European sovereign risk. Instead the markets are reflecting a shortage of term liquidity and while the ECB is still offering 3-month and 6-month money via LTROs the Fed has stopped their TAF (and other liquidity providing acronyms) and thus the pressure on USD LIBORs. It’s not that the market is reflecting new risks but simply that risk is being priced into the USD money market as the Fed is playing a lesser role as an intermediary. We might see upward pressure on USD LIBOR ease next month but the rates are likely to stay elevated reflecting the new normal liquidity balance in the money markets.
Another data point in the
new normal for Libor, then. Assuming we avoid a smash along the way.
Plus, it’s interesting to spot another liquidity question-mark over SEC rule 2a-7.
We’ve
recently noted how this regulation will also effectively make it impossible for money funds to invest in securities that aren’t rated A1. This has implications for big US banks’ repo market access, in the event that financial reform costs them the credit ratings lift they’ve derived from being “too big to fail”. Of course, whether any effects on repo would be truly distortive is up for debate.
At the same time, Felix Salmon on his blog says that bank credit ratings
aren’t useful at the best of times, hence we should discount the effect of any downgrades.
Perhaps. But the
dull plodding nerds may beg to differ.